New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction July 26

The New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction tilts strongly toward the over clearing the first-five-innings threshold, with the Polymarket signal pointing to a combined three-plus runs through the first five frames at a 72.5 percent implied probability. The Yankees enter this Citizens Bank Park finale riding a 7-3 stretch over their last ten games, while the Phillies have stumbled through four straight losses heading into Sunday night.

The market moved sharply in the last 24 hours, climbing 20.5 percentage points to settle at 72.5 percent for the YES outcome. The 1-hour reading shows almost no change from that level, and the trend score of 30.77 signals the market has found a firm plateau after a swift run-up. Total volume of $79,871 is heavily concentrated in the last 24 hours, with a lifetime liquidity base of $1,453,045 supporting this market through a July 26, 2026, resolution date. The two teams square off at 7:20 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

Game Stats

• Players
• Team

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
C.Bellinger LF	0.259	11	53	97
B.Rice 1B	0.271	30	71	100
J.Chisholm Jr. 2B	0.223	16	43	77
J.Caballero SS	0.241	10	37	71
T.Grisham CF	0.219	11	41	63
P.Goldschmidt 1B	0.259	16	43	68
R.McMahon 3B	0.211	9	26	48
A.Judge RF	0.248	17	38	53
A.Wells C	0.166	7	14	34
J.Domínguez RF	0.233	6	13	38
A.Rosario 3B	0.229	9	27	36
A.Volpe SS	0.242	1	15	36
G.Stanton DH	0.256	3	14	23
J.Escarra C	0.188	0	7	16
S.Jones CF	0.224	2	7	17
M.Schuemann SS	0.228	2	6	13
A.Sánchez C	0.225	0	4	9
O.Cabrera 3B	0.000	0	0	0

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
W.Warren SP	7-4	4.00	1.37	97

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
C.Schlittler SP	10-6	2.07	0.93	157
R.Weathers SP	4-7	4.25	1.27	122
W.Warren SP	7-4	4.00	1.37	97
M.Fried SP	4-3	2.97	0.96	57
G.Cole SP	3-5	3.92	1.10	66
P.Blackburn RP	3-1	1.93	1.04	41
B.Headrick RP	5-1	1.39	1.08	62
C.Rodón SP	4-2	3.30	1.25	52
D.Bednar RP	4-3	2.42	1.05	49
F.Cruz RP	4-4	2.51	1.33	55
R.Yarbrough RP	2-0	3.86	1.19	28
T.Hill RP	3-2	4.23	1.15	18
C.Doval RP	3-1	4.87	1.41	35
J.Bird RP	1-1	5.93	1.55	31
L.Gil SP	1-2	6.05	1.35	9
E.Rodríguez SP	0-2	4.77	1.77	10
A.Chivilli RP	1-0	0.77	0.86	12
Y.De los Santos RP	0-0	1.04	1.39	7
B.Beck SP	0-1	9.45	1.80	4
Y.Cruz SP	0-0	0.00	0.23	6
K.Castro RP	0-0	3.38	0.75	4
M.Schuemann SS	0-0	0.00	2.00	0
P.Goldschmidt 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Stanton DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Judge RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Bellinger LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Grisham CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.McMahon 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Rosario 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Sánchez C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Chisholm Jr. 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Caballero SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
O.Cabrera 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Escarra C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Volpe SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Domínguez RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Wells C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Rice 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Jones CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Giancarlo Stanton	POS DH	STATUS Out	INJURY Calf	Notes Stanton is dealing with a calf strain and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Aaron Judge	POS RF	STATUS Out	INJURY Rib	Notes Judge is dealing with a stress fracture of his right rib and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Trent Grisham	POS CF	STATUS Out	INJURY Hamstring	Notes Grisham is dealing with tightness in his right hamstring and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Max Fried	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Fried is dealing with a left elbow bone bruise and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Ryan McMahon	POS 3B	STATUS Out	INJURY Ear	Notes McMahon is dealing with an ear infection and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
David Bednar	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Personal	Notes Bednar has been placed on the paternity list and not take the field for the Yankees.

full roster and injuries

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
T.Turner SS	0.242	14	40	101
K.Schwarber DH	0.251	33	61	95
A.Bohm 3B	0.221	13	53	82
B.Harper 1B	0.251	21	61	93
B.Marsh LF	0.287	16	47	105
B.Stott 2B	0.246	7	42	86
J.Crawford CF	0.254	2	22	71
J.Realmuto C	0.229	7	34	58
A.García RF	0.195	7	21	45
E.Sosa 2B	0.212	5	25	35
D.Hill RF	0.243	8	17	35
R.Marchán C	0.102	2	6	9
G.Rincones Jr. RF	0.169	2	7	13
F.Reyes LF	0.158	1	2	6
G.Stubbs C	0.179	0	2	5
O.Kemp LF	0.080	0	0	2
D.Moore 2B	0.000	0	0	0
S.Berroa RF	0.143	0	1	1
B.De La Cruz LF	0.600	1	1	3

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
C.Sánchez SP	12-4	2.65	1.19	151

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
C.Sánchez SP	12-4	2.65	1.19	151
J.Luzardo SP	9-5	3.31	1.17	152
A.Nola SP	3-8	5.82	1.45	112
Z.Wheeler SP	10-2	2.16	0.88	117
A.Painter SP	1-8	7.06	1.66	53
T.Mayza RP	2-3	3.83	1.11	45
O.Kerkering RP	6-0	2.75	1.22	44
J.Alvarado RP	3-3	6.16	1.58	51
J.Bowlan RP	2-0	2.78	1.01	43
J.Duran RP	1-3	1.29	0.89	53
C.Shugart RP	2-0	5.40	1.33	37
B.Keller RP	2-1	4.02	1.34	32
T.Banks RP	0-4	7.14	2.00	32
A.Rangel RP	0-3	5.40	1.59	26
T.Walker SP	1-4	9.13	2.07	17
K.Backhus RP	1-1	6.19	1.56	17
S.Johnson RP	1-0	5.75	1.72	20
M.Lazar RP	0-0	5.63	1.38	5
Z.Pop RP	0-0	3.68	1.09	6
L.Trivino RP	0-0	15.00	2.83	7
N.Hoffman SP	0-0	3.86	1.93	2
G.Stubbs C	0-0	5.40	1.50	0
B.Keller SP	0-0	3.00	0.67	3
D.Moore 2B	0-0	5.40	1.20	0
A.McFarlane RP	0-0	0.00	1.00	0
J.Realmuto C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Harper 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Schwarber DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Turner SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Hill RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.Marchán C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Sosa 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Marsh LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.De La Cruz LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Bohm 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.García RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Stott 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
F.Reyes LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Berroa RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Crawford CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Rincones Jr. RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
O.Kemp LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Brad Keller	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Forearm	Notes Keller is dealing with right forearm tendinitis and has been placed on the 15-day injured list. He is expected to return in early July for the Phillies.
Adolis García	POS RF	STATUS Out	INJURY Lat	Notes García is dealing with a right latissimus dorsi tear and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He will miss the remainder of the 2026 season.

full roster and injuries

NYY

PHI

33.05

At Bats

33.56

4.65

Runs

4.28

805

Hits

828

3.69

Walks

2.90

9.04

Strikeouts

8.89

0.313

On Base Percentage

0.301

0.418

Slugging Percentage

0.399

3.33

Earned Run Average

4.21

3.29

Earned Runs

4.15

0.98

Home Runs

1.22

2.98

Walks

2.89

922

Strikeouts

1,027

0.09

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

0.09

1.18

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched

1.30

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How the New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Resolves

The primary market asks whether the first five innings produce more than 2.5 combined runs — in other words, three or more total runs before the sixth inning begins. A YES outcome resolves if either pitching staff allows enough early contact to push the combined tally to three or more. A NO outcome resolves if both starters cruise through five innings allowing two or fewer runs combined. Alternative markets include the 1st 5 Innings O/U at 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, and 6.5, a full-game O/U at 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5, an NRFI market, spread lines, and an extra-innings outcome.

• Over 2.5 first five innings (YES): 72.5%
• Under 2.5 first five innings (NO): 27.5%

The New York Yankees present a credible path for the NO outcome despite long odds. New York carries a 2.47 team ERA over the last ten games, and Cam Schlittler turned in a dominant 7.1-inning, 12-strikeout, scoreless outing on July 24 in this same series. That staff has been suppressing runs at an elite rate lately, which keeps the NO scenario alive for anyone looking at the underdog side of this market.

Market Signals and Form

The momentum composite tells a clear story: the price climbed 20.5 percentage points over 24 hours, then leveled off in the last hour with no measurable drift. A trend score of 30.77 confirms the market is cooling after a sharp surge rather than continuing to climb. The catalyst appears to be Philadelphia’s four-game skid combined with news that Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton remain sidelined for New York, creating uncertainty around both offenses heading into a series finale.

The $79,567 in 24-hour volume accounts for nearly all of the market’s $79,871 in lifetime volume, signaling that the bulk of trading conviction formed in a single concentrated window. Liquidity of $1,453,045 is robust for this market size, suggesting the 72.5 percent print is well-supported and not easily moved by thin order flow.

The full-game spread sits at -2.5 with an over/under of 9.5 for the game total. The MLB World Series Champion 2026 market, also on Polymarket, carries a positive relationship with this game’s outcome, making Philadelphia’s performance in this series a minor signal for championship futures traders.

• New York Yankees last 10 games: 7-3 record, 2.47 ERA, outscoring opponents by four runs
• Philadelphia Phillies last 10 games: 4-6 record, 3.40 ERA, outscored by one run
• Momentum composite: sharp 24-hour surge followed by a flat 1-hour hold, trend score at 30.77 signaling stabilization
• Injury watch — New York Yankees: Aaron Judge (sidelined), Giancarlo Stanton (sidelined), Cody Bellinger (hamstring, 10-day IL)
• Injury watch — Philadelphia Phillies: Johan Rojas (60-day IL, elbow), Adolis Garcia (60-day IL, lat), multiple bullpen arms on the IL

Philadelphia Phillies Lines Analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies enter game three at home, and Citizens Bank Park historically plays as a hitter-friendly environment that boosts early scoring chances. Philadelphia’s rotation has posted a 3.40 ERA over the last ten games, which is solid but not nearly the lockdown number New York’s staff is carrying. With multiple relievers unavailable due to injury, the Phillies may need their starter to navigate traffic carefully in the first five innings.

The New York Yankees carry the underdog burden on the run-line and in this market, but their pitching staff is the strongest argument for the NO outcome. New York’s starters and relievers have been nearly unhittable over the last ten games, and Schlittler’s July 24 performance in this exact series demonstrated the staff’s ceiling. If New York’s named starter on July 26 produces a similar outing, the first-five-innings total could easily stay under three combined runs.

• Citizens Bank Park run environment: hitter-friendly ballpark favors offensive output in early innings
• Philadelphia Phillies four-game losing streak: offense producing a .226 average over last ten games
• New York Yankees pitching: 2.47 ERA last ten games, elite suppression rate
• Judge and Stanton absence: removes two of New York’s most dangerous run-producing threats from the lineup
• Market stabilization at 72.5 percent: 24-hour surge has plateaued, suggesting current pricing reflects available information

The $79,871 in total volume concentrated almost entirely in the last 24 hours suggests this market attracted focused attention after Friday’s 1-0 final, a low-scoring game that defied early expectations. The 72.5 percent reading for the YES outcome reflects the broader view that two elite pitching staffs cannot sustain that level of run suppression across back-to-back games.

LINES VERDICT

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies host the series finale at Citizens Bank Park, where the combination of a hitter-friendly park and Philadelphia’s bullpen depth concerns makes early scoring the most likely path, giving the YES outcome a commanding market edge heading into Sunday night.