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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Result: Mets Win

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Result: Mets Win

Market called it correctly

Implied 100% at publication · Resolved YES · Brier score: 0.00

See full track record
SS Steve Silverman Sport Expert
Market Resolved
Embed this market
Resolution Verdict
YES (OVER 2.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS) Mets 6 1 Phillies

Market has ended. Final implied probability: 100%.

Resolved
Real Money Odds Book · FanDuel
Moneyline
New York Mets -130
Philadelphia Phillies +110
Spread
New York Mets -1.5
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
Total
Over O 8.5
Under U 8.5
Volume
$517.4K
$511.9K in 24h
Liquidity
$15.8K
Moderate depth
Time Left
6 days
Resolves Jul 26
517K Vol. Jul 26, 2026
New York Mets
New York Mets $385K Vol.
100%
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies $385K Vol.
0%
Largest Trade
$118,003
0x5e94...5ba1
voted with: PHI · PHILADELPH
Jul 19, 2026 at 2:43pm
Trader Rank Amount Position Volume PnL ROI Time
0x5e94...5ba1 - $118,003 PHI PHILADELPH $6.1M - - 14 hours ago

The New York Mets beat the Philadelphia Phillies to settle the New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction market, with the Yes outcome resolving at full value on July 26, 2026. The Mets entered this matchup carrying momentum from a series win at Citizens Bank Park the week prior, when Francisco Lindor homered and drove in three runs in a 6-1 series-clinching victory on July 19.

Polymarket closed the Mets at 100 percent, meaning the market fully priced the Mets win by resolution. The result matched the final market signal, with traders who held the Yes side collecting in full. The outcome confirmed a Mets win that the market had locked in ahead of the final whistle.

Game Stats
Batters AB HR RBI H
B.Bichette 3B 392 10 51 99
C.Benge RF 364 11 38 95
B.Baty 3B 299 5 32 67
J.Soto LF 286 21 52 83
M.Vientos 1B 237 11 35 50
F.Alvarez C 215 11 24 55
A.Ewing CF 210 7 25 58
L.Torrens C 166 2 19 37
F.Lindor SS 164 6 15 36
J.Young 1B 144 6 18 35
T.Taylor CF 126 7 18 29
R.Mauricio SS 50 1 2 9
E.Wagaman 1B 37 2 4 6
Starting pitcher IP ER K BB
N.McLean SP 113 42 135 41
Pitchers IP ER K BB
N.McLean SP 113 42 135 41
F.Peralta SP 104 54 104 44
S.Manaea RP 79 42 81 26
C.Scott SP 59 19 72 26
H.Brazobán RP 47 14 46 22
K.Senga SP 40 40 49 30
L.Weaver RP 40 9 43 11
C.Pérez RP 37 23 34 16
B.Raley RP 35 8 37 14
A.Warren RP 35 18 37 18
D.Williams RP 32 17 45 19
A.Minter RP 20 4 17 1
J.Gerber RP 8 4 8 4
L.Torrens C 0 1 0 0
F.Lindor SS 0 0 0 0
J.Soto LF 0 0 0 0
B.Bichette 3B 0 0 0 0
B.Baty 3B 0 0 0 0
J.Young 1B 0 0 0 0
A.Ewing CF 0 0 0 0
C.Benge RF 0 0 0 0
T.Taylor CF 0 0 0 0
R.Mauricio SS 0 0 0 0
F.Alvarez C 0 0 0 0
M.Vientos 1B 0 0 0 0
E.Wagaman 1B 0 0 0 0

INJURY REPORT

NAME POS STATUS INJURY NOTES
Joey Gerber
POS
RP
STATUS
Questionable
INJURY
Undisclosed
Notes
Gerber is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is uncertain to take the field for the Mets.
full roster and injuries
Batters AB HR RBI H
T.Turner SS 397 12 35 96
K.Schwarber DH 360 33 61 91
B.Harper 1B 353 20 59 91
A.Bohm 3B 352 12 49 77
B.Marsh LF 351 15 46 103
B.Stott 2B 331 7 42 82
J.Crawford CF 273 2 21 70
J.Realmuto C 238 7 33 51
E.Sosa 2B 152 5 25 34
D.Hill RF 136 7 16 34
R.Marchán C 85 2 6 9
G.Rincones Jr. RF 72 2 6 12
G.Stubbs C 28 0 2 5
Starting pitcher IP ER K BB
A.Rangel RP 23 14 26 12
Pitchers IP ER K BB
C.Sánchez SP 127 37 144 25
J.Luzardo SP 115 44 143 37
A.Nola SP 103 65 108 35
Z.Wheeler SP 93 22 108 22
T.Mayza RP 43 18 44 10
O.Kerkering RP 38 10 42 20
J.Alvarado RP 34 25 48 14
J.Duran RP 33 5 50 6
J.Bowlan RP 31 10 38 8
A.Rangel RP 23 14 26 12
T.Walker SP 22 23 17 11
K.Backhus RP 15 10 15 2
S.Johnson SP 14 10 18 13
L.Trivino RP 6 10 7 7
G.Stubbs C 3 2 0 1
B.Harper 1B 0 0 0 0
J.Realmuto C 0 0 0 0
K.Schwarber DH 0 0 0 0
T.Turner SS 0 0 0 0
B.Marsh LF 0 0 0 0
A.Bohm 3B 0 0 0 0
B.Stott 2B 0 0 0 0
J.Crawford CF 0 0 0 0
G.Rincones Jr. RF 0 0 0 0
E.Sosa 2B 0 0 0 0
R.Marchán C 0 0 0 0
D.Hill RF 0 0 0 0
full roster
0
At Bats
0
0
Runs
0
0
Hits
0
0
Walks
0
0
Strikeouts
0
0.301
On Base Percentage
0.303
0.380
Slugging Percentage
0.399
4.26
Earned Run Average
4.20
0
Earned Runs
0
0
Home Runs
0
0
Walks
0
0
Strikeouts
0
0
Strikeouts Per 9 Innings
0
1.31
Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched
1.31
Sponsored Partner
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What Happened: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The New York Mets won this contest against the Philadelphia Phillies, resolving the market on July 26, 2026. The Mets had been building toward this result across a series that ran July 16 through July 19 at Citizens Bank Park, where New York won the series for the first time in nearly four years. Francisco Lindor reached base five times in the July 19 finale, adding a homer, single, and double in a 6-1 Mets victory.

Nolan McLean struck out 10 and allowed just two hits in six scoreless innings in the series finale, anchoring the pitching performance that carried New York. Juan Soto, Luis Torrens, and Carson Benge added RBI contributions, giving the Mets a balanced offensive effort. The Phillies could manage only three hits against Mets pitching in that decisive game.

The July 26 market resolved with the Mets as winners, capping a stretch in which New York demonstrated it could beat Philadelphia in their own ballpark. The Phillies, sitting at 54-44 entering the late-July stretch, remained a strong club, but the Mets executed when the market demanded a result.

How the Market Called It: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Polymarket closed the New York Mets at 100 percent by the time this market resolved on July 26, 2026. The market correctly favored the Mets, and traders who moved early captured the full gain. The 24-hour volume surge of $511,870 — out of $517,386 total — signals that the decisive action came in the final day of trading.

The market started near even money, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which team would prevail. Traders pushed the Mets price sharply higher on July 18 and again on July 19, tracking the on-field results in near real time. By resolution, the Mets side had absorbed virtually all available capital, leaving the Phillies with zero market support.

The lifetime volume of $517,386 represents meaningful capital behind this read. Traders read the Mets correctly, and the closing probability of 100 percent confirmed there was no ambiguity at settlement.

Where the Big Money Landed

The whale data shows a single large position defining this market’s trajectory. Wallet 0x5e94…5ba1 placed a $118,003 buy on the New York Mets side at 45 cents, backing the Mets when the market was near even money. That position gained 32.5 cents in market price following the trade, reflecting a major swing in market sentiment toward New York.

Total large-trade volume came in at $118,003, entirely on the buy side with zero sell volume in the tracked window. The whale backed the winning side. The Mets resolved at full value, meaning the position closed at maximum return from the 45-cent entry point.

What Is Next: New York Mets and Live Markets

The New York Mets continue their 2026 MLB season with eyes on October. New York’s ability to win series on the road against strong teams like the Phillies keeps the Mets in the National League wild-card conversation. The MLB World Series Champion 2026 market on Polymarket currently prices the field with New York as a participant worth monitoring.

Traders looking for the next Mets matchup can find live game markets on the Lines.com MLB hub, where individual game prediction markets open ahead of each series. The MLB World Series Champion 2026 market offers a season-length position for those with conviction on New York’s trajectory. Related live markets include NL pennant contenders and division-winner futures as the second half of the 2026 season accelerates.

LINES RESOLUTION VERDICT

NEW YORK METS

The Mets won this market, resolving Yes at full value on July 26, 2026, in line with a market that had shifted strongly to New York’s favor over the final 24 hours of trading. The result matched the market signal, rewarding traders who backed New York when the price was still near even money.

Frequently Asked Questions

The New York Mets won, resolving the Polymarket prediction market at 100 percent in favor of New York on July 26, 2026.

The specific July 26 final score is pending official confirmation. In the prior series meeting on July 19, the Mets beat the Phillies 6-1 to win the Philadelphia series.

Yes. Polymarket closed the New York Mets at 100 percent at resolution, meaning the market fully priced a Mets win before the market settled on July 26, 2026.

The market resolved as a standard game-winner outcome, with the New York Mets taking the Yes side to full resolution. No extra-innings or alternative outcome applied to the primary market.

The Mets continue their 2026 season with live game markets available on Polymarket and tracked at Lines.com. The MLB World Series Champion 2026 prediction market is a live season-length option for Mets backers.

We aggregate the live positions of the top 50 Polymarket whales (ranked by 30-day tracked volume) into one composite reading per market. It refreshes every hour. The percentage shows how many of those whales hold YES versus NO; the net dollar position shows the cohort's directional exposure in dollars.

A convergence event fires when three or more tracked wallets buy the same outcome on the same market within a four-hour window. We surface these in the activity feed and the VIP digest.

No. Lines is an editorial and data product. We do not operate prediction markets, custody funds, or accept trades. All trade flows deep-link to Polymarket via our affiliate code. Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations.

What the smart money is doing

The top 50 Polymarket whales lean YES +0 points on this market. 0% of the cohort holds YES; 0% holds NO. Net dollar position favors YES.

Biggest recent positions: 0x5e9458 traded $118,003 PHILADELPH.

Market Resolved Outcome: YES
Final Price 100%
Settled Jul 26, 2026
Duration 13 days

Resolution Analysis

Rangel Struggles Early

Alan Rangel's 0-2 record and 4.19 ERA signal a pitcher still finding his footing at the MLB level. The Phillies' lineup has the depth to punish command mistakes inside Citizens Bank Park. If the top of the Phillies' order reaches base early, a multi-run first inning becomes very realistic and the YES outcome lands quickly.

Both Starters Lock In

Nolan McLean carries a 3.52 ERA and has shown the ability to keep games tight through five innings. If Rangel matches that efficiency and both bullpens stay quiet, a low-scoring first half is achievable. The NO outcome at 23 percent is a live contrarian trade if early lineups show key hitters sitting.

Mets Offense Drives the Over

The New York Mets sit at 41-57, but struggling teams can still generate early offensive bursts against soft pitching. A multi-run Mets first inning against Rangel would single-handedly resolve the YES outcome. McLean holding the Phillies down while the Mets score early is a less-expected but fully plausible path to YES.

Late Lineup Change Shifts the Market

A surprise scratch — either Rangel replaced by a bullpen arm or a key Phillies hitter sitting out — could shift the 77 percent consensus sharply in either direction. Citizens Bank Park weather, particularly wind blowing out to left field, adds another variable capable of turning a close first-inning sequence into a run-scoring burst.

Key macro factor: Citizens Bank Park's hitter-friendly dimensions and Alan Rangel's limited track record combine to give the scoring market a strong structural lean toward early runs in this NL East series finale.

Market Timeline

Jul 13, 1:00 PM
Market Created
Jul 13, 1:02 PM
Market Opened
Jul 13, 1:04 PM
Event Start
Sunday, Jul 26
Market Resolution

Market Comments

Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. This content is for informational purposes only.