Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Prediction July 11

The Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers prediction on the NRFI market favors the YES outcome at 100 percent, with Polymarket traders fully pricing in a scoreless first inning on July 11. The market surged 27.5 percent over the prior 24 hours as volume flooded in ahead of first pitch, reflecting a sharp and decisive consensus between two AL West rivals.

The NRFI probability sits at a locked 100 percent on Polymarket as of July 11, 2026. The market has drawn $165,743 in total volume, with $160,129 of that arriving in the final 24-hour window alone, signaling a concentrated rush of conviction ahead of game time. The trend score of 36.54 confirms momentum stabilized after a rapid climb, and the 1-hour change is flat, telling traders the move is complete.

Game Stats

• Players
• Team

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
C.Walker 1B	0.239	20	58	84
Y.Alvarez DH	0.312	30	68	107
I.Paredes 3B	0.251	12	47	81
C.Smith RF	0.218	11	32	69
J.Altuve 2B	0.235	10	26	65
B.Matthews CF	0.197	7	22	41
J.Peña SS	0.294	6	21	55
C.Vázquez C	0.220	4	21	37
Y.Diaz C	0.244	6	23	39
J.Meyers CF	0.206	3	11	28
C.Correa SS	0.279	3	16	34
T.Trammell CF	0.243	3	11	26
J.Loperfido LF	0.216	1	12	22
N.Allen SS	0.244	1	9	21
B.Shewmake SS	0.256	3	9	20
Z.Dezenzo LF	0.218	1	3	12
Z.Cole LF	0.157	3	8	8
D.Harris LF	0.233	0	5	10
R.Delgado 2B	0.267	1	4	8
L.Wade Jr. 1B	0.250	1	4	6
S.Whitcomb 3B	0.130	2	5	3
C.Salazar C	0.056	0	1	1
D.Johnson CF	0.143	0	0	2
C.Price C	0.167	0	0	2

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
P.Lambert SP	7-5	3.26	1.15	74

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
M.Burrows SP	4-9	5.99	1.55	75
S.Arrighetti SP	7-5	4.50	1.33	81
P.Lambert SP	7-5	3.26	1.15	74
K.Teng SP	4-6	4.36	1.36	63
A.Blubaugh RP	4-2	3.57	1.24	56
T.Imai SP	5-4	6.06	1.50	63
S.Okert RP	2-1	2.37	0.85	46
E.De Los Santos RP	0-2	4.54	1.18	39
B.King RP	2-2	2.85	1.27	32
L.McCullers Jr. SP	2-3	6.86	1.53	43
H.Brown SP	1-0	3.57	1.39	39
B.Abreu RP	2-3	5.70	1.67	38
R.Weiss RP	0-3	7.62	2.12	30
N.Pearson RP	1-0	3.60	1.40	16
C.Bolton RP	0-1	5.40	1.75	22
J.Alexander SP	1-1	9.33	1.58	14
J.Hader RP	3-0	0.59	0.72	25
A.Santa RP	0-1	1.17	0.91	9
C.Javier SP	0-1	10.22	2.27	8
C.Gordon SP	0-0	11.57	2.57	11
C.Roa SP	0-1	5.19	1.96	6
J.France SP	0-0	8.10	1.65	4
L.VanWey RP	1-0	1.50	0.83	5
M.Ullola SP	0-0	0.00	0.50	7
R.Muñoz SP	0-0	15.75	3.25	6
B.Sousa RP	0-0	8.10	2.40	4
J.Meyers CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Salazar C	0-0	9.00	1.00	0
C.Vázquez C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Altuve 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Correa SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Walker 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
L.Wade Jr. 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Trammell CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
Y.Alvarez DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
I.Paredes 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Johnson CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
N.Allen SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Peña SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.Delgado 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Shewmake SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Harris LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Whitcomb 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
Y.Diaz C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Loperfido LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Price C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
Z.Cole LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
Z.Dezenzo LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Matthews CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Smith RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Carlos Correa	POS SS	STATUS Out	INJURY Ankle	Notes Correa is set to undergo surgery on his left ankle and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He is expected to miss the remainder of the 2026 season.
Christian Walker	POS 1B	STATUS Questionable	INJURY Back	Notes Walker is dealing with stiffness in his lower back and is uncertain to take the field for the Astros.
Lance McCullers Jr.	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shoulder	Notes McCullers Jr. is dealing with right shoulder inflammation and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
LaMonte Wade Jr.	POS 1B	STATUS Out	INJURY Hamstring	Notes Wade Jr. is dealing with a right hamstring strain and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in late June.
Cristian Javier	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shoulder	Notes Javier is dealing with a right shoulder strain and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He is expected to return in late June.
Kai-Wei Teng	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Knee	Notes Teng is dealing with a right knee sprain and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Jeremy Peña	POS SS	STATUS Out	INJURY Leg	Notes Peña is dealing with left leg discomfort and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Raynel Delgado	POS 2B	STATUS Questionable	INJURY Finger	Notes Delgado is dealing with a dislocated right pinkie finger and is uncertain to take the field for the Astros.
Bennett Sousa	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Sousa is dealing with a left elbow inflammation and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Braden Shewmake	POS SS	STATUS Out	INJURY Adductor	Notes Shewmake is dealing with a right adductor muscle strain and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.

full roster and injuries

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
B.Nimmo RF	0.260	9	32	88
J.Burger 1B	0.244	16	58	81
J.Jung 3B	0.297	9	34	98
E.Duran SS	0.269	8	47	78
J.Pederson DH	0.237	15	32	58
E.Carter CF	0.180	7	22	39
C.Seager SS	0.182	10	25	34
W.Langford LF	0.276	9	22	47
A.Osuna LF	0.256	1	18	42
K.Higashioka C	0.219	6	16	34
D.Jansen C	0.171	3	12	21
J.Smith 2B	0.230	1	8	28
N.Lopez 2B	0.321	1	11	35
J.Foscue 2B	0.284	7	19	29
E.Díaz C	0.271	4	16	23
A.McCutchen DH	0.192	1	5	14
J.Kelenic RF	0.213	1	4	13
S.Haggerty LF	0.159	0	1	7
M.Helman CF	0.167	1	2	5
C.Cauley SS	0.211	0	0	4
C.Freeman 3B	0.235	0	0	4

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
K.Rocker SP	2-7	3.95	1.34	74

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
N.Eovaldi SP	9-7	4.04	1.18	120
M.Gore SP	5-8	4.72	1.31	111
J.deGrom SP	7-5	3.49	1.01	122
K.Rocker SP	2-7	3.95	1.34	74
J.Leiter SP	3-7	5.29	1.44	83
C.Paddack SP	0-7	6.79	1.67	40
C.Quantrill SP	3-1	3.11	1.14	28
J.Latz RP	1-1	1.65	0.64	46
T.Alexander RP	1-1	2.29	1.30	36
J.Junis RP	1-1	2.80	1.02	27
P.Gray RP	4-0	3.27	1.15	37
C.Winn RP	5-2	6.06	1.32	32
J.Beeks RP	2-1	3.81	1.39	21
G.Collyer RP	1-1	3.92	1.40	19
C.Martin RP	1-1	8.31	1.92	8
R.Ahlstrom RP	3-0	6.40	1.66	8
J.Ross RP	0-1	9.26	1.89	7
L.Curvelo RP	0-0	7.56	1.92	4
R.Garcia RP	0-1	3.38	1.50	6
C.Baumler SP	0-0	3.18	1.77	6
J.Corniell RP	0-1	13.50	2.70	3
B.Peoples RP	0-0	0.00	0.67	2
K.Higashioka C	0-0	18.00	2.50	0
W.Santos SP	0-0	9.00	1.50	1
S.Haggerty LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Pederson DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.McCutchen DH	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
B.Nimmo RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Seager SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Díaz C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
N.Lopez 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Jansen C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Burger 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Kelenic RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
M.Helman CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Jung 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Freeman 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Smith 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Duran SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Foscue 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Carter CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Osuna LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Cauley SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
W.Langford LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Chris Martin	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shoulder	Notes Martin is dealing with right shoulder impingement and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Brandon Nimmo	POS RF	STATUS Questionable	INJURY Shoulder	Notes Nimmo is dealing with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder and is uncertain to take the field for the Rangers.
Corey Seager	POS SS	STATUS Out	INJURY Back	Notes Seager is dealing with lower back inflammation and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Danny Jansen	POS C	STATUS Out	INJURY Forearm	Notes Jansen is dealing with a strained right forearm and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in late June.
Jalen Beeks	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Back	Notes Beeks is dealing with low back spasms and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Michael Helman	POS CF	STATUS Out	INJURY Hand	Notes Helman is dealing with multiple fractures in his right hand and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Cody Freeman	POS 3B	STATUS Out	INJURY Back	Notes Freeman is dealing with a herniated disc in his back and has been placed on the 10-day injured list.
Carter Baumler	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Ribs	Notes Baumler is dealing with an intercostal strain and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Jack Leiter	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Ankle	Notes Leiter is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Robert Garcia	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shoulder	Notes Garcia is dealing with left shoulder inflammation and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Wyatt Langford	POS LF	STATUS Out	INJURY Hamstring	Notes Langford is dealing with a left hamstring strain and is has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in mid-July.

full roster and injuries

HOU

TEX

33.57

At Bats

33.33

4.53

Runs

4.15

778

Hits

765

3.26

Walks

3.30

8.13

Strikeouts

8.35

0.314

On Base Percentage

0.319

0.410

Slugging Percentage

0.397

4.83

Earned Run Average

4.09

4.74

Earned Runs

3.99

1.40

Home Runs

1.20

4.38

Walks

2.84

824

Strikeouts

800

0.09

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

0.09

1.40

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched

1.25

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How the Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers NRFI Market Resolves

The NRFI market resolves YES if no run scores in the first inning of the July 11 Astros-Rangers game. The NO outcome resolves if either the Houston Astros or the Texas Rangers plate a run in the opening frame. Below is how each side reads entering the game.

• NRFI (YES): 100%
• YRFI — At Least One Run (NO): 0%

The Rangers host the Astros at Globe Life Field in Arlington for the final series of the 2025-26 regular season schedule before the All-Star Break. Texas opened this three-game set on July 10, and July 11 represents the middle game of the series. The market’s full pricing of the YES outcome reflects traders’ uniform expectation of a quiet first inning, driven by starting pitcher quality and recent first-inning run-prevention trends from both clubs.

Market Signals and Form

The momentum composite tells a clear story: the NRFI YES price climbed 27.5 percent over 24 hours, the 1-hour change held flat, and the trend score settled at 36.54, confirming the market ran hard and then cooled into resolution. The catalyst appears to be confirmation of starting pitcher assignments, which drove traders to lock the YES side near certainty.

Total volume of $165,743 with $160,129 arriving in the last 24 hours represents exceptional liquidity concentration, and the $293,966 in active liquidity on Polymarket provides deep market conviction behind the 100 percent reading. Open interest has cleared to zero, consistent with a market approaching or having reached resolution.

The secondary markets for this series include a full-game over/under of 12.5 and spread lines ranging from -1.5 to -7.5, none of which affect the NRFI resolution. No same-sport correlation qualifies within this event family for additional cross-market signal.

• NRFI YES price: 100% on Polymarket — full market consensus, no dissent
• 24-hour volume surge: $160,129 of $165,743 total arrived in the final window, showing concentrated late conviction
• Trend score 36.54: momentum cooled after the rapid climb, composite signals resolution, not ongoing movement
• Starting pitcher factor: The series opened July 10 with Cal Quantrill for Texas and Hunter Brown for Houston, both capable of suppressing first-inning scoring
• Injury context: Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr. remains on the IL with a right rotator cuff impingement, and Ronel Blanco is out with a torn UCL, limiting Houston’s rotation depth but not directly affecting this NRFI window

Lines Analysis: Houston Astros NRFI Market

The YES side of the NRFI market presents as fully resolved at 100 percent, meaning traders have priced out any possibility of a first-inning run entirely. The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers both bring starting pitchers capable of retiring the top of an opposing order, and the market has responded with unanimous conviction on the scoreless-inning outcome.

The path for the NO outcome — a YRFI — required either club to push a run across in the first inning, a scenario traders priced at zero percent entering first pitch. First-inning run-scoring events are already below-average frequency in MLB, and the combination of pitching quality and market consensus left no room for the run-scoring side.

• Market lock-in: The YES price reaching 100 percent leaves no residual trader disagreement
• Volume timing: The concentrated 24-hour surge suggests a specific catalyst, most likely confirmed pitching assignments
• Rotation injuries: Houston’s McCullers Jr. and Blanco absences are pre-game knowledge priced into every related market
• Series context: The final pre-All-Star series between division rivals carries heightened attention and sharper market pricing
• Liquidity depth: The $293,966 liquidity figure confirms this is not a thin market — the 100 percent reading is well-supported

The $165,743 lifetime volume on this NRFI market, with nearly all of it arriving on game day, reflects a market that found its answer quickly and decisively. Traders aligned on one outcome and moved capital with speed.

LINES VERDICT

NRFI (Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers)

The NRFI market resolved with complete trader consensus, as both starting pitchers kept the first inning scoreless and the Polymarket YES outcome locked in at full certainty.