Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction July 11

The Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers prediction favors Los Angeles at 77 percent, as Polymarket traders lean heavily on Yoshinobu Yamamoto to deliver in Game 2 of this NL West showdown. Shohei Ohtani is out of Saturday’s lineup with an injury, yet the Dodgers carry the market’s confidence into UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium with momentum backing a strong favorite read.

The market moved sharply over 24 hours, climbing 25 percent on a single day while the one-hour change flatlined, and a trend score of 37.69 confirms cooling after a fast run-up — the market is holding conviction, not accelerating further. Los Angeles sits at 77 percent, Arizona at 23 percent, in this NL West divisional clash scheduled for 9:10 PM ET on July 11. Total lifetime volume on Polymarket sits at $136,517, with $130,318 of that landing in the last 24 hours alone — a strong signal of fresh engagement around this game.

Game Stats

• Players
• Team

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
K.Marte 2B	0.262	17	54	95
C.Carroll RF	0.258	13	45	87
G.Perdomo SS	0.246	6	34	78
N.Arenado 3B	0.242	11	38	73
I.Vargas 1B	0.255	7	46	70
G.Moreno C	0.296	6	32	68
L.Gurriel Jr. LF	0.216	2	20	36
J.Fernandez 1B	0.255	3	15	42
A.Del Castillo C	0.185	5	23	28
T.Troy LF	0.225	4	9	27
R.Waldschmidt CF	0.254	0	8	29
J.Barrosa CF	0.189	2	10	21
A.Thomas CF	0.181	2	10	17
P.Smith 1B	0.141	1	6	11
T.Tawa LF	0.187	2	12	14
J.McCann C	0.210	0	6	13
L.Groover 1B	0.167	1	4	8
J.Lawlar LF	0.316	1	4	12
M.Kepler LF	0.188	1	6	6
C.Santana 1B	0.083	0	0	2
A.Garcia C	0.158	1	2	3
L.Baker 1B	0.200	0	0	1

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
B.Pfaadt SP	2-1	4.84	1.35	39

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
E.Rodriguez SP	8-3	2.29	1.17	79
Z.Gallen SP	3-9	6.34	1.56	61
M.Kelly SP	7-8	5.38	1.51	59
R.Nelson SP	3-5	4.97	1.24	62
M.Soroka SP	8-3	3.07	1.09	79
B.Pfaadt SP	2-1	4.84	1.35	39
T.Clarke RP	2-1	2.68	0.87	21
J.Loáisiga RP	2-2	2.23	0.99	24
K.Ginkel RP	3-2	2.97	1.16	39
J.Morillo RP	2-4	3.06	1.10	43
R.Thompson RP	3-2	2.97	1.29	25
P.Sewald RP	2-4	4.36	0.91	37
B.Garcia RP	0-1	1.96	0.78	26
J.Cabrera SP	0-2	5.60	1.53	12
D.Jameson SP	0-0	4.11	1.37	11
A.Hoffmann RP	1-0	7.71	2.06	12
P.Abner RP	0-0	9.95	1.74	4
J.McCann C	0-0	11.25	3.00	0
T.Rashi RP	1-0	9.82	1.09	4
M.Bratt SP	0-0	3.00	1.33	3
I.Vargas 1B	0-0	0.00	1.20	0
A.Del Castillo C	0-0	5.40	2.40	0
J.Burgos RP	0-0	6.75	1.50	0
K.Strowd RP	0-0	9.00	4.00	1
Y.Díaz SP	0-0	94.50	12.00	0
C.Santana 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
N.Arenado 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
M.Kepler LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Marte 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Garcia C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
L.Gurriel Jr. LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
P.Smith 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
L.Baker 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Thomas CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Barrosa CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Perdomo SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
G.Moreno C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Carroll RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Fernandez 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
J.Lawlar LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Tawa LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
L.Groover 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Troy LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.Waldschmidt CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
James McCann	POS C	STATUS Out	INJURY Quad	Notes McCann is dealing with a right quad strain and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in early July.
Michael Soroka	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Glute	Notes Soroka is dealing with a strained left glute and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Ryne Nelson	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Nelson is dealing with a right elbow strain and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Jordan Lawlar	POS LF	STATUS Out	INJURY Foot	Notes Lawlar is dealing with a strained right hamstring and has placed on the 10-day injured list.

full roster and injuries

Batters	AVG	HR	RBI	H
A.Pages CF	0.269	17	65	97
F.Freeman 1B	0.293	15	49	102
S.Ohtani DH	0.290	21	57	95
K.Tucker RF	0.250	7	47	80
M.Muncy 3B	0.265	17	40	76
M.Betts SS	0.238	11	30	55
T.Hernández LF	0.250	8	36	54
A.Freeland 2B	0.236	3	19	45
D.Rushing C	0.258	10	30	46
W.Smith C	0.249	6	23	43
M.Rojas SS	0.290	3	17	40
H.Kim SS	0.259	1	11	30
A.Call LF	0.252	1	16	28
T.Edman LF	0.350	1	9	21
S.Espinal 3B	0.268	1	7	15
R.Ward LF	0.218	3	12	12
C.Robinson C	0.087	0	1	2
E.Alfonzo C	0.000	0	0	0
E.Alfonzo C	0.000	0	0	0
E.Hernández 1B	1.000	1	2	4

Starting pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
Y.Yamamoto SP	9-5	2.49	0.88	100

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K
Y.Yamamoto SP	9-5	2.49	0.88	100
J.Wrobleski SP	10-2	2.69	1.02	73
S.Ohtani DH	8-2	1.79	0.95	95
R.Sasaki SP	3-5	5.33	1.36	80
E.Sheehan SP	4-6	4.91	1.27	86
E.Lauer SP	4-5	4.81	1.28	47
T.Glasnow SP	3-0	2.72	0.83	49
J.Dreyer RP	3-1	3.03	0.98	44
E.Henriquez RP	4-0	2.33	0.91	37
T.Scott RP	1-3	2.63	0.80	49
W.Klein RP	3-4	2.41	1.37	43
A.Vesia RP	1-1	2.27	1.14	45
K.Hurt RP	3-1	4.88	1.40	38
B.Treinen RP	4-1	3.52	1.35	25
J.Hernández RP	0-0	8.15	1.76	15
C.Barnes SP	0-1	7.50	1.92	4
B.Stewart RP	0-0	3.12	1.04	9
P.Gervase RP	0-0	2.35	1.57	8
E.Díaz RP	1-0	10.50	2.33	10
B.Casparius RP	0-1	9.64	2.14	4
W.Mills RP	0-0	6.23	2.31	4
M.Rojas SS	0-0	13.50	2.50	0
J.Eder SP	1-0	2.25	1.00	1
B.Snell SP	0-1	12.00	2.67	5
C.McDermott SP	0-0	7.71	1.29	1
E.Phillips RP	0-0	4.50	1.50	4
F.Freeman 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
M.Betts SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Hernández 1B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
M.Muncy 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Alfonzo C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Hernández LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
K.Tucker RF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Call LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
W.Smith C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
T.Edman LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
S.Espinal 3B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
C.Robinson C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Pages CF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
R.Ward LF	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
D.Rushing C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
A.Freeland 2B	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
H.Kim SS	0-0	0.00	0.00	0
E.Alfonzo C	0-0	0.00	0.00	0

INJURY REPORT

NAME	POS	STATUS	INJURY	NOTES
Mookie Betts	POS SS	STATUS Questionable	INJURY Wrist	Notes Betts is dealing with wrist soreness and is uncertain to take the field for the Dodgers.
Enrique Hernández	POS 1B	STATUS Out	INJURY Oblique	Notes Hernández is dealing with a left oblique tear and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in early August.
Blake Treinen	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Treinen is dealing with right elbow inflammation and has been placed on the 15-day injured list.
Tyler Glasnow	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Lower Back	Notes Glasnow is dealing with lower back spasms and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Blake Snell	POS SP	STATUS Out	INJURY Undisclosed	Notes Snell is dealing with loose bodies in his left elbow and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Edwin Díaz	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Diaz is dealing with an elbow injury and has been placed on the 60-day injured list. He is expected to return in late July.
Will Smith	POS C	STATUS Out	INJURY Neck	Notes Smith is dealing with a stiff neck and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is expected to return in late July for the Dodgers.
Evan Phillips	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Elbow	Notes Phillips is recovering from Tommy John surgery and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.
Ben Casparius	POS RP	STATUS Out	INJURY Shoulder	Notes Casparius is dealing with right shoulder inflammation and has been placed on the 60-day injured list.

full roster and injuries

ARI

LAD

32.89

At Bats

33.77

4.23

Runs

5.27

741

Hits

845

3.11

Walks

4.04

7.21

Strikeouts

7.84

0.305

On Base Percentage

0.344

0.382

Slugging Percentage

0.437

4.28

Earned Run Average

3.50

4.15

Earned Runs

3.44

1.21

Home Runs

1.06

2.82

Walks

2.99

643

Strikeouts

849

0.07

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

0.10

1.28

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched

1.14

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How the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Resolves

A Los Angeles Dodgers win resolves the YES outcome at 77 percent. An Arizona Diamondbacks win resolves the NO outcome at 23 percent. This is a two-sided market — no draw or extra-outcome path exists.

• Los Angeles Dodgers (YES): 77%
• Arizona Diamondbacks (NO): 23%

The Diamondbacks own a real path to the upset despite being heavy underdogs. Arizona shocked Los Angeles in Game 1 on July 10, winning 9-3 at Dodger Stadium behind Tim Tawa’s four-RBI performance from the number nine spot, including a home run. The Diamondbacks are 47-47 overall and 20-27 away, but the offense showed it can exploit a depleted Dodgers bullpen — Los Angeles used seven pitchers in that Friday loss.

Market Signals and Form

The market’s 24-hour surge of 25 percent landed in a single day while the one-hour move went flat, and the trend score of 37.69 signals the probability has stabilized after a fast climb — the catalyst was clearly Saturday’s pitching announcement sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound. Volume tells the same story: $130,318 of the $136,517 lifetime total arrived in the last 24 hours, pointing to concentrated, game-day conviction rather than slow-building consensus.

Liquidity on this market reads at $929,408, a figure that suggests deep market depth and meaningful price stability heading into first pitch. High liquidity alongside concentrated 24-hour volume typically means the probability is difficult to move at this stage.

The spread sits at -2.5 in favor of Los Angeles, with the game total set at 7.5; the first-five-inning markets (over/under 2.5 through 6.5) offer additional angles tracked in the UI data strips. Same-sport correlation to the MLB World Series Champion 2026 market, where the Dodgers carry 29 percent probability, reinforces the narrative that Los Angeles remains a top-flight contender this season.

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 9-5 record, 2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 8.60 strikeouts per nine innings in 2026 — an ace entering his final start before the All-Star break.
• Brandon Pfaadt: 4.84 ERA across 15 appearances in 2026, mixing starter and reliever roles before returning to the rotation the last two weeks.
• Dodgers form: Los Angeles has gone 12-4 over the last 16 games, winners of five straight series entering Saturday.
• Diamondbacks injuries: Justin Martinez (Tommy John surgery, targeting second-half 2026 return), A.J. Puk (60-day IL, left shoulder capsule sprain), and Ryne Nelson (60-day IL, right flexor strain and UCL sprain) are all unavailable for Arizona’s bullpen.
• Market momentum composite: Flat over one hour, up 25 percent over 24 hours, trend score 37.69 — conviction holding at a ceiling after a large single-day move.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lines Analysis

Los Angeles enters Saturday as baseball’s best team at 61-34 overall and 31-17 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. Yamamoto is 9-5 with a 2.49 ERA and has allowed just nine runs across his last eight starts, posting a 2.28 ERA in that stretch with a strikeout rate of 9.13 per nine innings. Yamamoto faced the Diamondbacks on Opening Day and held them to two runs over six innings with six strikeouts, a preview of the elite command he brings to Saturday. The Dodgers lineup ranks top ten in OPS, slugging, on-base percentage, and walks over the last 15 days, even with Ohtani sidelined for this game.

Arizona’s underdog case rests almost entirely on the bullpen dynamic. The Diamondbacks took Game 1 by a 9-3 score after Los Angeles burned seven arms in a single night. Brandon Pfaadt carries a 4.84 ERA in 2026 and surrendered two runs on three hits in one relief inning against the Dodgers last month, but Arizona’s offense has ranked 25th in batting average during July — making a repeat offensive explosion the exception, not the expectation. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is without Martinez, Puk, and Nelson, which limits Arizona’s ability to protect even a slim late lead.

• Yamamoto edge: An elite strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.60 K/9 and 1.81 BB/9 gives Los Angeles a massive starting-pitching advantage in Game 2.
• Dodgers home record: Los Angeles is 31-17 at home in 2026, one of the best home marks in the NL.
• Arizona bullpen depth: Three key relievers are unavailable on the injured list, limiting Dave McKay’s options late in close games.
• Ohtani absence: Shohei Ohtani is out of Saturday’s game with an injury, softening the Dodgers lineup but not eliminating its top-ten quality.
• Market conviction: $130,318 in 24-hour volume confirms Game 2 traders have made their case for Los Angeles loudly and clearly.

The Dodgers have gone 12-4 over 16 games and won five consecutive series, building a run of dominance that the $136,517 in total Polymarket volume on this game directly reflects. The 77 percent market probability for Los Angeles represents one of the stronger single-game favorite readings in the division this season.

LINES VERDICT

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the clear class of this matchup, and the Dodgers’ dominant home record and red-hot form make Los Angeles the decisive market favorite heading into Game 2 of this NL West series.