Tokyo Minimum Temperature June 27: 22°C at 62%

Tokyo’s overnight low on June 27 has become the most actively traded temperature market on Polymarket this week. The 22°C outcome sits at 62% implied probability, a reading that jumped sharply over the past 24 hours as late-June humidity patterns and regional forecast models pushed traders toward the mid-range outcome. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: Tokyo’s early-summer lows cluster tightly between 21°C and 24°C during the last week of June, making the adjacent bands real competitors for this contract.

The market question asks which single temperature, in whole-degree Celsius increments, will represent the lowest recorded reading in Tokyo on June 27. The 22°C outcome trades at 0.62 YES and 0.38 NO. The contract resolves at 12:00 UTC on June 27, 2026. Total volume stands at $10,466, with $6,459 of that arriving in the last 24 hours alone.

How the Tokyo June 27 Temperature Contract Works

YES on 22°C pays out if the official minimum temperature recorded in Tokyo on June 27 lands exactly at 22°C. Resolution follows the market’s designated weather data source for Tokyo daily minimums. All other outcomes, from 17°C or below through 27°C or higher, pay out on their respective contracts. The 22°C band competes against ten other listed outcomes.

• 22°C YES trades at 0.62, implying a 62% probability the overnight low hits exactly that mark.
• 22°C NO trades at 0.38, implying a 38% probability the low lands somewhere else entirely.

The NO side pays when any outcome other than 22°C resolves. Tokyo’s Japan Meteorological Agency station data governs the official minimum. The window is tight: a forecast off by even one degree celsius shifts the entire payout. Outcomes at 21°C and 23°C represent the most direct competition for contract value.

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Momentum and Market Signals: A Sharp 24-Hour Surge

The momentum composite here is impossible to ignore. The 22°C outcome gained 18.5% over the past 24 hours while giving back 3.5% in the most recent hour, producing a trend score of 53.21. That pattern, a large directional move followed by a modest pullback, typically reflects new forecast data entering the market rather than pure speculative flow. A regional weather model update or a shift in Tokyo’s low-pressure system positioning likely drove the surge.

Total volume at $10,466 is thin. The 24-hour volume of $6,459 represents more than 60% of total lifetime volume arriving in a single day, which signals a genuine information event rather than slow accumulation. Liquidity at $36,847 is notably deep relative to total volume, meaning the order book can absorb movement. But with total volume below $1 million, a single large trade or a new forecast release can reprice this contract sharply before resolution.

• The 22°C outcome gained 18.5% over 24 hours, most likely driven by updated short-range Tokyo forecast models showing overnight lows in the low-to-mid twenties.
• The 1-hour decline of 3.5% suggests some profit-taking or a minor forecast revision after the surge.
• Liquidity at $36,847 is healthy for the market size, reducing the risk of a flash price move on thin order flow.
• Volume concentration in the last 24 hours confirms this is an active, information-driven market, not a stale contract.
• Adjacent outcomes at 21°C and 23°C should be monitored: any forecast shift of one degree celsius redistributes significant probability mass away from 22°C.

Lines Analysis: What Supports 22°C and What Threatens It

Tokyo’s climate record for late June strongly supports minimum temperatures in the 21°C to 24°C range. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s historical station data for the final week of June shows mean overnight lows consistently in that window, with 22°C and 23°C appearing as modal outcomes in recent years. The current pricing at 62% reflects trader confidence that late-June 2026 conditions, humid, warm, and influenced by the seasonal baiu front, will keep the overnight low anchored near the mid-range of the competitive band. The data doesn’t care about the politics of forecasting: the thermometer in Tokyo in late June rarely surprises.

The NO scenario is real and worth understanding. A stronger-than-expected southerly wind event pushing warmer marine air inland overnight could lift the minimum to 23°C or 24°C. Conversely, a brief clearing episode allowing radiative cooling could pull the low toward 21°C or 20°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s short-range forecast, particularly the 12-hour and 6-hour guidance issued late on June 26, is the single most important input. Any model run showing a low outside the 22°C to 23°C range would reprice this contract immediately.

• Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance issued on the evening of June 26 will either confirm or undermine the 22°C consensus.
• Baiu front positioning matters: a stalled front over the Kanto Plain keeps humidity high and overnight lows stable near 22°C to 23°C.
• A front passage or clearing sky event late on June 26 increases radiative cooling risk, shifting probability toward 20°C or 21°C outcomes.
• Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo bias minimums slightly warmer than regional models predict, supporting the 22°C to 23°C range.
• Precipitation during the overnight hours of June 26 to June 27 tends to stabilize minimum temperatures near dew point, often in the 22°C to 24°C band during baiu season.

The market is pricing uncertainty, not science. At $10,466 in total volume, this is a sharp, fast-moving contract shaped almost entirely by forecast revisions. The 22°C outcome holds a meaningful edge based on historical climatology and current model consensus, but the adjacent bands at 21°C and 23°C remain live. The data favors YES on 22°C, but the margin is thin enough that a single forecast update in the next 12 hours could swing this meaningfully.

LINES VERDICT

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The 22°C outcome holds a defensible climatological and modeling edge for Tokyo’s June 27 overnight low, but the competitive band is tight and resolution depends on a single degree of precision.

What the market says: At 62% implied probability, the market rates 22°C as the most likely single outcome but not a dominant one. With resolution in less than 24 hours and volume concentrated in the last day, expect continued volatility as final forecast runs publish.

Key unknown: The Japan Meteorological Agency’s short-range forecast update on the evening of June 26 is the decisive data point. A shift of even one degree Celsius in the projected low redistributes significant probability mass to the 21°C or 23°C contracts.