Miami Lowest Temp June 26: Market Locks In 80-81°F

Miami’s overnight low temperature for June 26 has become one of the most one-sided markets on Polymarket this week. The 80-81°F bracket sits at a 92.7% implied probability, and traders poured nearly $10,000 into this market in the last 24 hours alone. That kind of late-stage conviction is rarely accidental. The market is pricing near-certainty, not uncertainty.

The market question asks: what is the lowest temperature recorded in Miami on June 26? The current YES price is $0.93 and the NO price is $0.07. Resolution closes at 12:00 PM ET on June 26, 2026. Total volume stands at $12,998.

How the 80-81°F Contract Works

YES pays out if Miami’s official overnight low temperature on June 26 falls between 80°F and 81°F. The resolution source is market resolution, tied to official temperature reporting for Miami. Every other bracket, from 78-79°F down to 71°F or below, and from 82-83°F up to 90°F or higher, represents the NO side.

• YES (80-81°F): $0.93 per share, implying 92.7% probability.
• NO (any other bracket): $0.07 per share, implying 7.3% probability.

The NO case requires Miami’s low to fall outside the 80-81°F window before resolution. In late June, Miami’s climatological overnight lows rarely dip below 78°F or climb above 83°F. The lower brackets (74-75°F, 72-73°F, 71°F or below) represent near-impossible outcomes for this time of year. The realistic NO scenario is a reading of 78-79°F or 82-83°F, and even those brackets are trading at thin fractions.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here tells a clear story. The 1-hour change is flat at 0.0%, the 24-hour change is up 50.5%, and the trend score sits at 65.14. That combination points to a single driver: actual overnight temperature data is now available or nearly available, and traders moved hard into the 80-81°F bracket once Miami’s low became observable. A 50% jump in 24 hours is not speculative repositioning. It is a market converging on a known outcome.

Total volume of $12,998 is modest. The 24-hour volume of $9,823 represents roughly 75% of all trading happening in the final day, which confirms this is a resolution-driven market, not a long-running debate. Liquidity sits at $23,193, which is healthy relative to volume. That said, with total volume under $1 million, this market can move sharply on any single trade or data update.

Key Factors

• The 24-hour price change of +50.5% reflects traders responding to observed or near-final temperature data for Miami on June 26, not forward speculation.
• The 1-hour change of 0.0% suggests the market has reached equilibrium, with no new information arriving in the past hour.
• Miami’s June climatology strongly supports overnight lows in the 79-82°F range, making the 80-81°F bracket the highest-probability single outcome.
• Total volume under $13,000 means this is a thin market where large late trades could still shift the price before resolution.
• The resolution deadline of 12:00 PM ET on June 26 leaves very little time for the market to reprice.

Lines Analysis: Miami Temperature Data and Contract Risk

Miami’s climate in late June is among the most predictable in North America for overnight lows. The city sits in a humid subtropical zone with sea surface temperatures in Biscayne Bay running near seasonal highs. Overnight lows in the 80-81°F range are common and well within the historical norm for this date. The market’s 92.7% probability reflects that climatological reality.

The realistic risk to the 80-81°F bracket is a reading that slips to 79°F or climbs to 82°F. Both outcomes are plausible within normal daily variability. A passing thunderstorm system can briefly push temperatures down before rebounding. An unusually calm, humid night with no convective activity can keep temperatures elevated into the 82-83°F range. Neither scenario is likely enough to shift a 93-cent contract, but both are real.

Signals to Monitor

• Official Miami temperature readings from NOAA’s National Weather Service Miami office will determine resolution. Any final reading outside 80-81°F reprices this contract to near zero.
• A 79°F reading would push the 78-79°F bracket into the money and collapse the primary bracket immediately.
• A 82°F reading would similarly void the 80-81°F outcome and shift value to the 82-83°F bracket.
• Late-night convective activity over South Florida, visible on NWS Miami radar, would be the clearest signal of a cooler-than-expected low.
• Flat wind conditions and high dewpoints, typical of Miami in June, support lows staying in the 80-82°F window.

Total volume of $12,998 positions this as a narrow, data-driven contract. The evidence favors YES. The single scenario that changes everything is an official temperature reading outside the two-degree window, and with resolution just hours away, the market has already priced that risk at 7 cents.

LINES VERDICT

Market Concluded: Eighty to Eighty-One Degrees

The 50-point surge in 24 hours is the market seeing the data and reacting. Miami’s June climate and the late-stage volume both point the same direction.

What the market says: At 92.7% implied probability, the market has treated this outcome as settled. With resolution closing at noon on June 26, volatility in the final hours is possible but would require an official reading outside the 80-81°F bracket.

Key unknown: The single most important factor is the official NWS Miami overnight low reading. If that number lands at 79°F or 82°F, this market reprices to near zero in minutes.