Home / Prediction Markets / Science / Seoul Low Temp May 29: Will It Hit Sixteen Degrees? Seoul Low Temp May 29: Will It Hit Sixteen Degrees? View on Polymarket → Share SR Sofia Renard Climate & Science Analyst Market Resolved Embed NEW Embed this market Full Compact Copy Published May 28, 2026 1 min read Resolution Verdict YES Market Resolved Market has ended. Final implied probability: 100%. Resolved Volume $29.4K $15.8K in 24h Liquidity $3.5M Deep liquidity Time Left Ended Resolves May 29 29K Vol. Ended 1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL Select lines to display 16°C $7K Vol. 100% Yes 100¢ No 0¢ 11°C or below $2K Vol. 0% Yes 0¢ No 100¢ 12°C $1K Vol. 0% Yes 0¢ No 100¢ 13°C $1K Vol. 0% Yes 0¢ No 100¢ 14°C $3K Vol. 0% Yes 0¢ No 100¢ 15°C $2K Vol. 0% Yes 0¢ No 100¢ Sponsored Partner A single-day temperature market for Seoul resolved tomorrow at noon, and the data is moving fast. The 16°C outcome has surged from 30% to 61% in under 24 hours, a price swing driven by updated short-range forecast models converging on a mild overnight low for the Korean capital. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: late May in Seoul sits in a transitional window where lows can range from the low teens to the low twenties, and right now the market has landed squarely on 16°C. Market Resolved Outcome: YES Final Price 100% Settled May 29, 2026 Duration 3 days Resolution Analysis Forecast Models Hold Steady If the Korea Meteorological Administration's short-range models maintain their current overnight low prediction for Seoul through tomorrow morning, the 16°C outcome holds its ground. Forecast model agreement in the final 12 hours before resolution is the strongest confirmation signal available in a market like this. Warm Advection Pushes Low Higher A southerly wind shift or stronger-than-expected warm air advection could push Seoul's overnight low toward 17°C or 18°C. Late-spring temperature markets in Seoul are vulnerable to mesoscale weather systems that develop quickly. A revised forecast nudging the low upward by even one degree would reprice this contract sharply. Cooler Air Mass Arrives Earlier A faster-moving cold front from the northwest could drop the overnight low to 14°C or 15°C, pulling probability mass away from the 16°C band. This scenario benefits traders holding the 14°C or 15°C outcomes. The market is pricing 16°C as the modal outcome, not a certainty. Unexpected Precipitation Cooling An unforecast rain event overnight in Seoul could suppress the minimum temperature below model guidance. Evaporative cooling during a late-night shower has pushed overnight lows below the forecast floor in similar late-spring setups. This is low probability but would quickly shift capital toward the 14°C or 13°C outcomes. Key macro factor: Late May in Seoul sits at the tail end of spring, where synoptic-scale patterns transition between cool continental air and warmer Pacific-influenced flow, creating genuine forecast uncertainty at the single-degree resolution level. Market Timeline May 25, 2026, 4:30 AM Market Created May 25, 2026, 4:49 AM Event Start May 25, 2026, 5:07 AM Market Opened May 29, 2026 Market Resolution Related Prediction Markets Moving Now Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 22? 33°C 100% Yes No 26°C or below 0% Yes No Read Article Moving Now Highest temperature in London on July 22? 25°C 95% Yes No 26°C 5% Yes No Read Article Moving Now Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 22? 35°C 100% Yes No 28°C or below 0% Yes No Read Article Moving Now Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 22? 39°C 100% Yes No 34°C or below 0% Yes No Read Article Moving Now Highest temperature in Beijing on July 22? 28°C 100% Yes No 25°C or below 0% Yes No Read Article Moving Now Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 22? 33°C 100% Yes No 26°C or below 0% Yes No Read Article Moving Now Highest temperature in Madrid on July 22? 39°C 100% Yes No 40°C 0% Yes No Read Article Moving Now Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...? June 30, 2027 54% Yes No December 31, 2027 53% Yes No Read Article Moving Now 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? 1st hottest 90% Yes No 3rd hottest 10% Yes No Read Article Loading... Volume Liquidity Ends Outcomes Description Resolution Rules View on Market Comments Loading comments…
