Seoul Low Temp July 3: Can 22°C Hold at 40%?

Seoul’s overnight low on July 3 is a tighter call than the headlines suggest. The 22°C outcome sits at roughly 40% probability, meaning traders are assigning real weight to a warmer night but haven’t committed. July in Seoul runs warm and humid, and the city’s urban heat island effect pushes overnight minimums higher than surrounding rural stations. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the market is genuinely uncertain, not just pricing noise.

The market question asks for the lowest recorded temperature in Seoul on July 3, 2026. The 22°C outcome trades at 0.40 YES and 0.61 NO, implying a 39.5% probability. The contract resolves July 3, 2026 at 12:00 UTC. Total volume stands at $9,833, all of it recorded in the last 24 hours.

How the Seoul July Third Low Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the official minimum temperature recorded in Seoul on July 3, 2026 equals exactly 22°C. Alternative outcomes include 21°C, 23°C, 20°C, 24°C, 18°C, 19°C, 25°C, 26°C, 17°C or below, and 27°C or higher. Each outcome trades as a separate contract. Resolution follows the official measurement reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration or the designated resolution source for this market.

• YES (22°C): 0.40 — 39.5% implied probability. The market’s single most likely outcome, but below a coin flip.
• NO (all other outcomes): 0.61 — 60.5% implied probability. Traders lean toward a night that finishes above or below the 22°C mark.

The NO side pays out if Seoul’s minimum lands on any temperature other than exactly 22°C. July minimums in Seoul historically cluster between 21°C and 25°C during the first week of July, so the adjacent outcomes at 21°C and 23°C each carry meaningful probability. A stronger-than-expected southwesterly flow bringing warm air from the Yellow Sea would push the minimum toward 23°C or 24°C. A brief northerly intrusion or above-average cloud cover dissipating overnight could drop the low to 21°C.

Sponsored Partner

Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is straightforward: the contract opened at 0.21 and has risen to 0.40, a 19-point gain on July 1. The 1-hour change is flat at 0.0%, suggesting the initial repositioning has paused. No 24-hour change baseline exists for comparison, since all volume entered the market today. The trend score of 38.65 reflects a contract that moved hard once and is now consolidating.

Total volume is $9,833, with all $9,833 arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $34,401, which is healthy relative to volume and means the order book can absorb moderate-sized trades without extreme slippage. Volume is below $1 million, so a single well-sized bet can reprice this contract meaningfully before resolution. Open interest is $0, consistent with a newly active market.

• The 19-point price jump on July 1 suggests a participant with a weather model or local forecast moved first. No whale trade data is available to confirm size or direction.
• Flat 1-hour momentum means the initial catalyst has been absorbed. The contract is waiting on updated forecast data.
• Liquidity at $34,401 relative to $9,833 volume gives this market a healthy buffer, but thin overall volume means price discovery is still early.
• The 30-day low of 0.21 versus the current 0.40 reflects a sharp reassessment of 22°C’s likelihood, likely triggered by a weather model shift or a forecast update for Seoul’s July 3 overnight period.
• Adjacent outcomes (21°C and 23°C) are the primary competitors. Traders pricing 22°C at 40% are implicitly leaving roughly 60% split across the remaining 10 outcomes, with 23°C and 21°C absorbing the largest shares.

Lines Analysis: Seoul Overnight Lows in Early July

Seoul’s July climate tilts warm. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s historical records show the city’s early July overnight minimums consistently land in the 22°C to 24°C range during normal monsoon onset conditions. The Jangma front, Korea’s summer monsoon, typically establishes itself in late June and early July, bringing cloud cover that traps surface heat overnight. That dynamic favors warmer minimums, which explains why the 22°C outcome gained ground on July 1. If the Jangma front is active and centered over the peninsula on the night of July 2 to 3, 22°C or above becomes more likely than not.

What makes the NO side real is outcome fragmentation. Even if the overnight low lands in the 22°C to 23°C range, the contract resolves YES only at exactly 22°C. A low of 22.6°C rounds to 23°C under standard meteorological reporting. A low of 21.4°C rounds to 21°C. The Korea Meteorological Administration reports minimums to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so the resolution hinges on a one-degree window. That’s why a 40% probability on a single degree outcome is actually a strong signal of conviction, not weakness.

• Korea Meteorological Administration forecast update for July 3: any revision to the overnight low guidance would directly reprice this contract.
• Jangma front position: a frontal boundary stalled over central Korea overnight raises minimum temperatures and favors 22°C to 23°C outcomes.
• Northerly wind intrusion: any short-wave trough pushing cooler air southward would shift probability toward 21°C or 20°C outcomes.
• Urban heat island persistence: Seoul’s downtown stations record minimums 1°C to 2°C warmer than suburban stations. The designated resolution station matters for borderline readings.
• Adjacent outcome pricing (21°C and 23°C): if either gains significantly relative to 22°C before resolution, that’s a signal the market has received updated forecast information.

The data doesn’t care about the politics, and in this case there are no politics. This is a straight meteorological call. Total volume at $9,833 is thin, but the $34,401 liquidity base means the order book isn’t empty. The current 39.5% probability on 22°C reflects a market that has digested one forecast signal and is waiting on the next. The adjacent outcomes hold the remainder of the probability, and the contract’s binary single-degree resolution means forecast precision matters more here than directional conviction.

LINES VERDICT

CONTESTED OUTCOME, SINGLE FORECAST AWAY FROM REPRICING

The 22°C outcome is the market’s modal pick, but 40% on a 12-outcome contract is thin confidence. The Jangma front’s position on the night of July 2 to 3 is the deciding variable, and that forecast will sharpen in the next 24 to 48 hours.

What the market says: At 39.5%, the market gives 22°C the best single-outcome odds but assigns a 60.5% chance to any other temperature. With resolution two days away and volume thin, this price can move sharply on a single forecast update.

Key unknown: The Korea Meteorological Administration’s 48-hour forecast for Seoul’s overnight low on July 3 is the single data point that will reprice every outcome in this contract. Watch for any update that shifts the guidance above or below the 22°C to 23°C corridor.