Seoul Low Temp April 26: Can 10°C Hold?

A single-day temperature contract rarely moves seventeen percent in twenty-four hours. Seoul’s April 26 overnight low market just did exactly that. The implied probability for a 10°C minimum climbed from roughly 28% at open to 46.5% today, driven by what appears to be a sharp consensus shift in short-range forecast models pointing toward a cool but not frigid night across the Korean Peninsula.

The market resolves at 2026-04-26 12:00:00, making this one of the shortest-horizon science contracts on Polymarket right now. Eleven temperature bins compete for resolution, ranging from 8°C or below all the way to 18°C or higher. The 10°C bin currently leads at 46.5%. That is not a dominant position. It is a market saying: we think this is the most likely single outcome, but the distribution is still wide.

How the Seoul Temperature Contract Works

This market resolves on the official lowest recorded temperature in Seoul on April 26, 2026. The resolution source is market-designated weather data aligned with standard meteorological reporting for the Seoul station. Each temperature bin is a separate outcome. Traders buying the 10°C contract win if and only if the official minimum falls within that bin, not adjacent ones.

• 10°C (YES): 0.47 implied price, 46.5% probability. Wins if the overnight low is recorded at exactly 10°C.
• 9°C: Lower-bin alternative, gains value if models shift colder overnight.
• 11°C: Immediate upside alternative, gains if the night stays slightly warmer than current forecasts suggest.
• 8°C or below: Tail risk for a sharper cold intrusion from the north.
• 12°C or higher bins: Collectively represent the warmer-side probability mass traders have largely sold down.

Missing the 10°C bin doesn’t require a dramatic weather event. Seoul’s overnight lows in late April are genuinely sensitive to cloud cover, wind direction, and soil moisture. A shift of one or two degrees in the synoptic pattern pushes resolution into the 9°C or 11°C bin. That is the core risk here. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The 24-hour momentum composite tells a clear story: a 17.5% price move, a trend score of 51.29, and a flat one-hour reading of 0.0% together signal that the repricing happened fast and has now stalled. Traders moved aggressively into the 10°C bin when short-range forecast models likely converged on a similar overnight low, and the market is now in a holding pattern waiting for the next model run or observation data.

Total volume stands at $13,548, with $12,552 of that trading in the last 24 hours. Liquidity is listed at $202,591, which looks deep relative to volume. But this is a hyper-short-horizon market. Thin actual trading volume means a single moderately-sized bet can reprice this contract sharply before resolution. The 46.5% figure is not a stable equilibrium. It reflects current best-guess forecast alignment, nothing more.

• 24h price change (+17.5%): Largest single-day move in this contract’s history, driven by forecast model convergence on a 10°C overnight low.
• Trend score (51.29): Sits just above neutral, confirming momentum has plateaued after the initial surge.
• 1h change (0.0%): Market has paused. Traders are waiting for updated forecast data before adding more exposure.
• Volume ($13,548 total): Low absolute volume means price is highly sensitive to new information or a single large trade.
• Competing bins (9°C, 11°C): Both retain meaningful probability mass, keeping the 10°C contract well below a decisive threshold.

Lines Analysis: Seoul Overnight Low on April Twenty-Sixth

The case for 10°C resolving as the winner rests on short-range forecast convergence. When multiple independent numerical weather models agree on a specific overnight low, prediction markets tend to follow quickly. The 17.5% price jump in 24 hours reflects exactly that dynamic. Seoul’s average low in late April historically sits in the 9°C to 12°C range, which means 10°C is not a surprising outcome. It is squarely in the climatological center of the distribution for this time of year.

The bin structure itself creates the primary risk for current holders. A forecast that shows 10°C as the median outcome still leaves substantial probability in the 9°C and 11°C bins. Weather forecasts at 24 to 48 hour range carry enough uncertainty that a one-degree miss is entirely normal. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s high-resolution local forecasts, updated multiple times daily, are the key data source to watch. Any shift in the forecast minimum toward 9°C or 11°C will immediately reprice competing bins at the expense of 10°C.

Signals to monitor before 2026-04-26 12:00:00 resolution:

• Korea Meteorological Administration’s next forecast update: a shift toward 9°C cools the 10°C contract immediately.
• Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs: agreement between these two systems drove the initial price surge and any divergence will reintroduce uncertainty.
• Actual overnight surface temperature observations from the Seoul station as April 25 transitions to April 26: early readings anchor the final low.
• Wind direction data for the Korean Peninsula: northerly flow pushes the low colder, southerly flow pushes it warmer, either outcome hurts the 10°C bin.
• Cloud cover overnight: clear skies favor radiative cooling toward the lower bins, overcast conditions favor the warmer bins.

The $13,548 in total volume reflects a highly active last 24 hours for a hyper-short market, but absolute size remains thin. New forecast data arriving before resolution is the single variable most likely to shift price. The data currently favors 10°C as the modal outcome, but the margin over adjacent bins is not wide enough to treat this as settled.

LINES VERDICT

Narrow Favorite, Wide Distribution

The 10°C bin is the most likely single outcome based on current forecast alignment, but this is a modal call in a genuinely uncertain multi-bin race. One model update or a shift in overnight wind pattern moves resolution to an adjacent bin.

What the market says: 46.5% for 10°C as of 2026-04-25 10:11:46, representing a significant 24-hour repricing that has now paused. Volatility remains high heading into the 2026-04-26 12:00:00 resolution, given thin trading volume and a multi-bin structure where adjacent outcomes carry real probability.

Key unknown: The Korea Meteorological Administration’s next high-resolution forecast update is the single most important data point before resolution. Any shift in the predicted overnight minimum by even one degree would immediately reprice the 9°C and 11°C bins at the expense of the current leader.

Scientific Context: Seoul April Low Temperature

Seoul’s late April climate sits in a transitional regime between winter continental air masses and the warmer maritime flow that dominates from May onward. The Korean Meteorological Administration’s historical station data for central Seoul shows overnight lows in the 8°C to 13°C range as the dominant cluster for the last week of April, with significant year-to-year variability driven by the timing of the East Asian monsoon onset and blocking patterns over Siberia. The current market distribution, with probability mass concentrated between 9°C and 12°C, closely mirrors that historical spread. This is a well-calibrated market, not one where trader sentiment has diverged from climatological norms. The price movement before 2026-04-26 12:00:00 will be driven entirely by forecast model updates, not by any new scientific publication or regulatory event.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 46.5% probability mean for the 10°C bin? It means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 46.5% chance the official Seoul overnight low on April 26 lands exactly in the 10°C bin, based on current forecast data and market positioning.
• What happens to the NO contract? Traders holding positions in any other bin win if the recorded overnight low falls outside 10°C. The 9°C and 11°C bins are the primary beneficiaries if forecasts shift by one degree in either direction.
• What event would move this price before resolution? A Korea Meteorological Administration forecast update showing the overnight minimum shifting to 9°C or 11°C would immediately reprice competing bins and reduce the 10°C contract’s probability.
• When does this market resolve? Resolution is set for 2026-04-26 12:00:00, based on the official lowest temperature recorded at the Seoul meteorological station on April 26, 2026.
• Is the volume reliable enough to trust the price? Total volume is $13,548, with $12,552 traded in the last 24 hours. This is thin in absolute terms. The listed liquidity of $202,591 suggests depth in the order book, but low trading volume means a single moderate trade can move the price materially before resolution.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-04-25 10:11:46. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-04-26 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.