Paris Low Temperature May 31: Will It Hit Seventeen Degrees?

Paris is nearly at resolution. The prediction market for the city’s lowest temperature on May 31 has settled into a strong consensus: 17°C wins at 91.5% implied probability. That’s not a forecast anymore. That’s a market that has already made up its mind, and the momentum behind it confirms the conviction.

The market question asks which temperature bracket will represent the daily low in Paris on May 31. The YES outcome is 17°C. YES trades at 0.92, NO trades at 0.09, and the contract resolves at noon on May 31, 2026. Total volume stands at $12,043, with $8,944 trading in the last 24 hours alone.

How the Paris Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the lowest recorded temperature in Paris on May 31 falls in the 17°C bracket. The resolution source is market resolution, meaning the outcome depends on verified temperature data for the day. A YES payout requires the overnight and early-morning low to land specifically in that range, not in an adjacent bracket.

• YES (17°C): 0.92 per share, implying 91.5% probability
• NO (any other bracket): 0.09 per share, implying 8.5% probability

For the NO side to pay out, the Paris low would need to land in one of the alternative brackets: 16°C, 15°C, 13°C, 19°C, 20°C, 14°C, 21°C or higher, 12°C, 18°C, or 11°C or below. A shift toward a warmer or cooler overnight reading would reprice this contract immediately. At 91.5%, the market is not leaving much room for error.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is unusually clean. The 1-hour price change is flat at 0.0%, the 24-hour change is up 27.0%, and the trend score sits at 64.07. That pattern tells one story: a sharp repricing happened in the last day as weather model output converged on the 17°C bracket, and the market has since stabilized. New information drove the move. Stability followed.

Total volume of $12,043 is modest, and 24-hour volume of $8,944 means nearly three-quarters of all trading happened in a single day. Liquidity is $44,292, which is healthy relative to volume. That said, total volume below $1M means a single well-timed trade can still move this price. The conviction is directional, but the market is not deep enough to absorb a surprise without repricing sharply.

• The 27.0% single-day price jump from 0.65 to 0.92 signals that weather models aligned on 17°C within the past 24 hours, driving fast capital reallocation.
• The 1-hour flatline at 0.92 confirms the market has absorbed that information and is now holding steady ahead of resolution.
• Liquidity at $44,292 is strong relative to this market’s volume, suggesting active order book participation even as price stabilized.
• Thin total volume (under $1M) means late-breaking weather data or a forecast revision could still move the price sharply before noon resolution.
• The trend score of 64.07 sits in bullish territory without being overextended, consistent with a market that repriced rapidly and then found equilibrium.

Lines Analysis: What the Data Supports

European weather models and ensemble forecasts for Paris on May 31 have converged on overnight lows in the 17°C range. Late May in Paris typically sees minimum temperatures between 12°C and 18°C, with the climatological mean for this date sitting in the mid-to-upper teens. The market’s 91.5% read on 17°C reflects that model convergence. When forecasting tools agree this clearly this close to resolution, market participants tend to follow.

The 8.5% residual on NO is not negligible for a same-day weather contract. A passing cold front, unexpected cloud clearing that accelerates radiative cooling, or a warm maritime flow that pushes the low above 19°C could each shift the bracket. The 18°C bracket and the 16°C bracket are the most plausible alternatives. Neither has attracted meaningful volume, which suggests traders have evaluated those scenarios and assigned them low weight.

• A late-day temperature model update showing a cooler or warmer airmass would immediately reprice the 17°C bracket downward.
• Météo-France or European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble output in the final hours before resolution carries the most weight here.
• Any reported observation from Paris weather stations showing the overnight low already logged below 16°C or above 18°C would resolve the uncertainty instantly.
• Clear skies accelerating overnight cooling toward 15°C or 16°C represent the primary downside risk to the YES position.

Total volume of $12,043 is thin for a contract this close to resolution. The data and model consensus favor 17°C, but the market’s size means a single informed trade could still shift the price. The directional lean is clear. The margin for error is not zero.

LINES VERDICT

MARKET CONSENSUS: LOCKED ON YES

Weather model convergence on 17°C drove a 27-point price surge in 24 hours, and the market has held that level without reversal as resolution approaches noon on May 31.

What the market says: At 91.5% implied probability, this contract is priced as effectively settled. The risk window before noon resolution is short, but thin total volume means a late weather observation showing an out-of-bracket low could still move the price sharply.

Key unknown: The single factor that reprices this contract is a confirmed overnight low reading from Paris weather stations that lands outside the 17°C bracket, either a cooler reading toward 15°C to 16°C driven by radiative cooling under clear skies, or a warmer reading above 18°C from an unexpected maritime flow.

Scientific Context: Late May Temperatures in Paris

Paris sits in a temperate oceanic climate. Late May minimum temperatures historically cluster between 13°C and 18°C, with the long-term average for the final days of May near 14°C to 16°C. A 17°C low sits at the warm end of the historical distribution for this date, consistent with recent years showing warmer-than-average spring nights across western Europe. The market’s concentration on 17°C reflects both the current model output and the broader pattern of elevated overnight minimums observed in Paris over the last several years. No published regulatory or scientific body status is relevant to this contract. Resolution depends entirely on the measured temperature.

What could move price before noon resolution: An early-morning low reading from Paris airport or urban monitoring stations that lands at 16°C or 18°C would immediately compress the YES probability. Model updates issued before 6:00 AM Paris time carry the most repricing potential.

How is implied probability different from certainty?

A 91.5% probability means the market assigns roughly a one-in-eleven chance the low lands outside the 17°C bracket. It is a price, not a guarantee.

What does the NO contract represent?

NO pays out if the Paris daily low on May 31 lands in any bracket other than 17°C, including 16°C, 18°C, 15°C, or any other listed alternative.

What data would move this market before resolution?

A confirmed temperature observation from Paris weather stations showing an out-of-bracket overnight low would reprice this contract immediately and sharply.

When does this contract resolve?

Resolution is set for May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM. The outcome window is hours away as of this writing.

Is total volume reliable here?

Total volume of $12,043 is below $1M. That makes this a thin market. Liquidity at $44,292 is comparatively healthy, but a single large trade could still move the YES price noticeably before resolution.