NYC May 29 Low Temp: Will It Hit 54-55°F?

A two-degree temperature band is splitting trader opinion on what New York City will record as its lowest temperature on May 29. The 54-55°F range currently carries a 46.5% implied probability, making it the leading outcome in a crowded field of eleven bins. That’s a meaningful lead, but with ten competing outcomes, no single band is a lock.

The market question asks: what will NYC’s lowest temperature be on May 29? The 54-55°F outcome trades at $0.47 YES and $0.54 NO. Total volume stands at $5,464, with the market closing at 12:00 PM ET on May 29, 2026.

How the 54-55°F Contract Works

This is a discrete outcome market. The 54-55°F band resolves YES if NYC’s official low temperature on May 29 falls between 54°F and 55°F inclusive. All other bands resolve NO.

• YES ($0.47): The official NYC low lands between 54°F and 55°F on May 29.
• NO ($0.54): The low falls in any other range, including the nearest competing bands at 52-53°F, 56-57°F, or 58-59°F.

The NO side covers ten alternative outcomes. The low misses the 54-55°F band whenever a warmer overnight airmass keeps the floor above 56°F, or a stronger cold intrusion pushes it below 54°F. The 58-59°F and 56-57°F bands are the most likely NO competitors based on current market pricing across the full range.

Sponsored Partner

Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is unusually active for a short-duration weather market. The 54-55°F band surged 18.5% in the last hour and 14.5% over 24 hours, with a trend score of 75.89. That kind of move in a weather bin typically reflects a forecast model update or a NWS advisory narrowing the predicted low toward that range. Traders are repricing around new information, not sentiment drift.

Total volume is $5,464, with $3,496 traded in the last 24 hours. That’s more than 64% of all trading happening in the final day before resolution. Liquidity sits at $16,532, which is healthy relative to volume. Because total volume is well below $1 million, this market can move sharply on even a modest new trade or a forecast update. The price discovery here is real but fragile.

Key Factors

• The 54-55°F band gained 18.5% in the last hour, the strongest short-term move in the contract, likely tied to a model run or forecast update narrowing the predicted overnight low.
• The 24-hour gain of 14.5% confirms directional conviction, not a one-hour blip.
• At $5,464 total volume, thin liquidity means a single large trade could swing the price meaningfully before the 12:00 PM ET close.
• The full outcome distribution spans 51°F or below through 70°F or higher, making the leading band more competitive than a binary market.
• The market closes at noon on May 29, meaning the official overnight low will already be recorded before resolution, eliminating forecast uncertainty at close.

Lines Analysis: Reading the NYC Temperature Data

The data doesn’t care about the politics, and late-May temperature data for New York City is actually pretty well-constrained. The city’s average low in late May typically falls between 55°F and 62°F, based on historical Central Park records. A 54-55°F reading would sit at the cooler edge of that range but is not unusual for a night with lingering post-frontal air. The recent surge in this band’s price suggests forecast models have shifted toward a cooler overnight scenario.

What makes NO real is the width of the competing field. The 56-57°F and 58-59°F bands absorb probability if the overnight low runs even slightly warmer than the current forecast. A shift of two degrees in the model output is well within normal forecast error for a 24-to-36-hour outlook. The 52-53°F band also becomes relevant if a sharper cold push materializes overnight.

Signals to Monitor

• The National Weather Service New York forecast for overnight May 28 into May 29: any adjustment toward 56°F or warmer would reprice competing bands upward and pull probability from the 54-55°F range.
• The official Central Park low temperature recording: this is the resolution source, and it locks in at or before the 12:00 PM ET close.
• Model consensus between the GFS and ECMWF for the May 29 overnight low: if both models converge on 54-55°F, this band’s probability should hold or extend its gains.
• Any late-night trade volume spike: given thin total volume, a concentrated bet in a competing band could shift relative pricing quickly.
• Cloud cover and wind speed forecasts for overnight May 28: clear skies and light winds favor radiative cooling, which pushes the low toward 54°F or below.

Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the market is pricing a cooler-than-typical late-May overnight in NYC, with the 54-55°F band now absorbing the most recent forecast signal. With $5,464 in total volume, the market is pricing uncertainty, not science. The data that resolves this contract already exists in the overnight temperature record. Traders waiting until the 12:00 PM close will be pricing a known outcome.

LEADING BUT NOT SETTLED

The 54-55°F band leads the field at 46.5% implied probability after a sharp momentum surge, likely driven by a favorable model forecast. But in an eleven-outcome market with thin volume, no band is safe until the official low is recorded.

What the market says: A 46.5% implied probability means traders see this as the most likely single outcome, but still assign a 53.5% chance to any other temperature range. With the market closing at 12:00 PM ET on May 29, price volatility will compress quickly as the official low becomes public knowledge.

Key unknown: The single most important input is the official Central Park overnight low for May 29. Any NWS forecast revision in the hours before dawn that shifts the predicted low above 56°F or below 54°F would immediately reprice this contract and lift competing bands.