NYC Low Temp May 27: Can 64-65°F Hold at 43%?

A single two-degree band is trading at 43% in a market that resolves in hours. The 64-65°F range holds the top position for New York City’s overnight low on May 27, but ten competing outcomes split the remaining probability across a wide span. That spread tells you something: forecasters and traders agree on the general neighborhood but disagree sharply on the exact landing zone.

The market asks: what is the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on May 27? The 64-65°F outcome sits at $0.43 YES and $0.58 NO, implying a 42.5% probability. The market closes at noon on May 27, 2026. Total volume stands at $3,014, with $2,015 of that traded in the last 24 hours.

How the 64-65°F Contract Works

A YES on this contract pays out only if the official overnight low for New York City falls precisely within the 64-65°F range on May 27. Resolution follows official weather measurement for the city. Any reading of 63°F or below, or 66°F or above, voids this outcome entirely.

• YES ($0.43): The overnight low lands between 64°F and 65°F, inclusive.
• NO ($0.58): The overnight low falls outside that two-degree window, anywhere from 55°F or below to 74°F or higher.

The NO outcome wins when the overnight reading drifts even slightly outside a narrow corridor. Nine alternative ranges cover everything from 55°F or below to 74°F or higher. That is a lot of room for the temperature to land elsewhere, which explains why NO prices at $0.58 even with the primary outcome holding the market’s top share.

Momentum and Market Signals

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Price momentum is flat. The 64-65°F outcome has held at $0.43 without movement in the last hour, and the trend score of 28.60 confirms low directional conviction. Nothing has pushed this contract off its opening price. With resolution hours away, the market is waiting on actual atmospheric conditions, not new information from forecasters or traders.

Total volume of $3,014 and 24-hour volume of $2,015 place this firmly in thin-market territory. Liquidity sits at $11,968, which is healthy relative to the volume traded. But with under $5,000 in total bets, a single well-timed trade can move this price noticeably. Treat the 42.5% figure as a directional signal, not a precise probability estimate.

• The 64-65°F outcome holds the largest single share at 42.5%, but more than half the market probability is distributed across nine other ranges.
• Zero price movement in the last hour signals that active traders are not adding new information at this stage.
• Thin volume means this price is sensitive to even modest late-breaking trades before noon resolution.
• The trend score of 28.60 reflects low conviction, consistent with a market waiting for actual measurement rather than forecast updates.

Lines Analysis: NYC May Overnight Temperatures

Late May overnight lows in New York City typically cluster in the low-to-mid 60s. The 64-65°F band sits at the center of that historical range, which explains why it commands the largest single probability share. The National Weather Service’s readings for Central Park, LaGuardia Airport, and JFK Airport all feed into official low-temperature records for the city. A night with light southerly flow and residual daytime warmth supports a reading in this range.

The risk to this outcome comes from temperature variance on either side. A stronger overnight boundary passage or a shift toward cooler maritime air could push the low toward 62-63°F or 60-61°F. Conversely, persistent warm advection could lift the overnight minimum into the 66-67°F range. Any of those scenarios pays NO at $0.58. The two-degree window is narrow, and atmospheric conditions at the surface do not always cooperate with even well-calibrated forecasts.

• National Weather Service official overnight low: a reading in the 64-65°F window resolves YES.
• Warm advection scenario: persistent southerly flow or unseasonable warmth pushes the low toward 66-67°F, paying NO.
• Marine cooling scenario: onshore flow from the Atlantic drives the low toward 62-63°F or below, paying NO.
• Forecast model spread: if multiple models disagree on the overnight minimum by even two degrees, the NO outcome benefits from that uncertainty.
• Observation timing: the official low is measured over the full calendar day; late-night or early-morning readings before noon matter most.

The $3,014 in total volume is thin. The data as of market open favors 64-65°F as the most likely single outcome, but with 57.5% of probability mass sitting on NO, the market is explicitly pricing the chance that the temperature lands somewhere else. The measurements will settle this, not the market.

LINES VERDICT

LEAN YES, ACKNOWLEDGED NARROW WINDOW

The 64-65°F range holds the highest single probability in a fragmented field. Late May overnight lows in New York City historically favor this corridor, and no late-breaking catalyst has moved the price off its opening level.

What the market says: A 42.5% probability on the primary outcome, with resolution in hours. Thin volume means this price could shift on a single late trade before the noon cutoff.

Key unknown: The official National Weather Service overnight low measurement for New York City on May 27. Any reading outside the 64-65°F band, even by one degree, flips the outcome entirely.