NYC Low Temp May 26: Will 58-59°F Hit?

Tomorrow morning’s low in New York City sits at the center of a tight prediction market. The 58-59°F bracket holds a 31.9% implied probability, making it the market leader across ten competing temperature bands. That leadership is narrow. Six adjacent brackets crowd the distribution, and no single outcome commands a majority.

The market question asks: what will the lowest temperature in NYC be on May 26? The 58-59°F outcome trades at $0.32 YES and $0.68 NO. The market closes May 26 at 12:00 UTC. Total volume stands at $3,385, with $1,427 traded in the last 24 hours.

How the NYC Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves to the bracket that matches the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on May 26. Each bracket is mutually exclusive. Only one pays out.

• YES on 58-59°F pays if the official low falls within that two-degree band.
• NO on 58-59°F pays if the low lands in any other bracket, from 49°F or below through 68°F or higher.

A NO outcome here does not require extreme cold or heat. The low landing at 60°F, 57°F, or any adjacent value is enough to flip this contract. The nine competing brackets collectively hold 68.1% of implied probability. That spread is the real story of this market.

Momentum and Market Signals

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Reading the Signals Before Tomorrow

Momentum data shows a trend score of 56.85, pointing mildly toward the YES side. Hourly and 24-hour price changes are not available, so directional movement cannot be confirmed. The trend score alone suggests mild market lean toward 58-59°F without strong conviction behind it.

Total volume is $3,385 with $1,427 in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $11,727, which is substantial relative to volume. This means the order book has depth, but trading activity is thin. At this volume level, a single meaningful bet can move the price sharply. Treat current pricing as a soft consensus, not a locked forecast.

• The 58-59°F bracket leads with 31.9% implied probability, but no bracket commands a majority.
• The 60-61°F and 56-57°F brackets are the nearest competitors and represent the most likely alternatives.
• Total volume below $5,000 means price discovery here reflects a small number of traders, not broad market agreement.
• Trend score of 56.85 signals mild YES-side tilt without confirming a clear directional catalyst.
• Liquidity at $11,727 exceeds volume, meaning the market can absorb larger bets without extreme slippage.

Lines Analysis: NYC Low Temperature, May Twenty-Sixth

The 58-59°F bracket earns its market-leading position because late May lows in New York City cluster near this range during typical late-spring conditions. Overnight lows in the upper 50s are climatologically common for this time of year. National Weather Service forecast data for the New York metro area shows overnight temperatures consistent with this band. That alignment between climatological baseline and current forecast is the primary support for the YES case.

The NO case is structurally strong here. It does not require anything unusual. A low of 60°F or 61°F, which is slightly warmer than the leading bracket, is just as plausible. A low of 56°F or 57°F, slightly cooler, is also within normal variation. The market is not pricing a dramatic miss. It is pricing a forecast distribution where the most likely single band still loses more often than it wins. Nine other brackets share the remaining 68.1% probability.

• The National Weather Service overnight low forecast for NYC on May 25-26 is the single most important input for this contract. Any update to that forecast before market close reprices all brackets simultaneously.
• A shift in wind direction, particularly from a cooler marine flow off the Atlantic, would push the low toward 54-57°F and favor adjacent NO outcomes.
• A warmer-than-expected evening with residual heat retention would push the low toward 60-63°F and also favor NO.
• Precipitation overnight would affect the temperature floor. Rain typically moderates lows, nudging the outcome toward the 58-62°F zone.
• Late-evening weather model updates, particularly the 00Z run of the GFS or NAM model, would be the clearest signal that current pricing needs revision.

Total volume of $3,385 reflects a lightly traded contract with concentrated positioning. The data currently favors 58-59°F as the single most likely outcome, but the probability distribution is nearly flat across several adjacent brackets. The market is pricing genuine forecast uncertainty, not a confident directional view.

LINES VERDICT

NARROW LEADER IN A CROWDED FIELD

The 58-59°F bracket is the market’s best guess, but nine competitors make this a low-conviction call. The forecast baseline supports the leading bracket, but adjacent outcomes are nearly as likely.

What the market says: A 31.9% implied probability means the market treats 58-59°F as the most probable single outcome while acknowledging it will likely be wrong. With resolution arriving May 26 at noon UTC, the next NWS overnight forecast update is the only meaningful catalyst left.

Key unknown: The final National Weather Service low temperature forecast for New York City on the night of May 25-26. Any forecast revision shifting the expected low by two degrees or more would materially reprice this contract and its neighbors.