NYC Minimum Temp May 25: Will the Low Hit 56-57°F?

New York City’s overnight low on May 25 is one of the more precise bets on Polymarket right now. The market has settled on 56-57°F as the most likely outcome, with a 48% implied probability. That’s a narrow lead in a crowded field of eleven possible ranges, and the spread between YES at $0.48 and NO at $0.52 tells you this is genuinely contested ground.

The market question asks: what will be the lowest temperature recorded in NYC on May 25? The primary outcome, 56-57°F, trades at $0.48. The contract resolves at noon on May 25, 2026. Total volume stands at $11,953, with $6,030 traded in the last 24 hours and $17,024 in liquidity sitting in the order book.

How the NYC May 25 Low Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the official low temperature recorded for New York City on May 25, 2026 falls in the 56-57°F range. All other recorded lows resolve NO for this outcome. The resolution source is the market itself, using official weather observation data for NYC. The contract closes at noon on May 25.

• YES (56-57°F) trades at $0.48, implying a 48% probability that the overnight low lands in this two-degree window.
• NO trades at $0.52, covering all ten other possible ranges from 47°F or below up to 66°F or higher.

A NO payout requires the actual low to fall anywhere outside the 56-57°F band. That’s a wide target. Late May in New York City produces lows that routinely vary by six to eight degrees depending on cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a front moves through overnight. The 56-57°F band is the market’s best guess, but ten competing outcomes split the remaining 52% probability across a broad temperature spectrum.

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Momentum and Market Conviction

The trend score sits at 64.48, a moderate lean toward the YES outcome. Hourly and daily price change data are not available for this contract, so the trend score is the primary directional signal. At 64.48, the market is not strongly convinced but shows a mild bias toward the 56-57°F range holding as the leading outcome. The most likely driver is updated National Weather Service forecast data for the New York City metro area ahead of the May 25 resolution.

Total volume of $11,953 with $6,030 in the last 24 hours puts this contract in the low-to-medium activity tier. Liquidity of $17,024 is solid relative to volume, meaning the order book can absorb moderate-sized trades without sharp price moves. Still, with total volume under $15,000, a single large bet in the final hours before resolution could shift the leading outcome meaningfully.

Competing Outcome Prices (via Polymarket, as of 2026-05-24)

• 56-57°F: $0.48 (48%)
• 58-59°F: next closest competitor by trading activity
• 54-55°F: third most active range
• 60-61°F and 52-53°F: moderate probability tails
• All ranges above 62°F or below 52°F: low probability outliers

Key Factors

• The trend score of 64.48 signals a mild directional lean toward 56-57°F, likely tracking NWS forecast updates for the overnight period ending May 25.
• Late May NYC lows historically cluster between 52°F and 62°F, putting the 56-57°F band squarely in the statistical center of typical outcomes.
• A passing cold front or stronger-than-expected marine influence from the Atlantic could push the low below 54°F, shifting probability to lower-range outcomes.
• Warmer-than-normal surface conditions across the Northeast in spring 2026 slightly favor lows landing at the upper end of the range, near 58-61°F.
• With eleven possible outcomes, no single range commands dominant probability. The 48% YES price reflects genuine uncertainty, not a settled forecast.

Lines Analysis: Reading the NYC Temperature Market

The National Weather Service 48-hour forecast for New York City is the single most important input for this contract. Late May lows in NYC typically fall between 52°F and 62°F, with the 56-58°F range capturing a plurality of historical outcomes. The market’s 48% probability on 56-57°F aligns with that historical center of mass. If the NWS forecast holds near 57°F for the overnight low, the YES outcome has the clearest path to resolution.

The 58-59°F and 54-55°F bands represent the most credible competing outcomes. A warmer overnight, driven by cloud cover trapping daytime heat or a southerly wind shift, pushes the low toward 58-61°F. A stronger cold front passage or clear skies with radiative cooling could drag the low toward 54-55°F or lower. The NO side at $0.52 is not a vote against good weather forecasting. It’s a vote that ten alternative outcomes collectively outweigh any single two-degree window.

Signals to Monitor

• National Weather Service hourly forecast updates for Central Park or JFK Airport observations will directly reprice competing outcome ranges in the final 12 hours.
• Any frontal boundary tracked by NOAA moving through the New York metro area overnight May 24-25 is a major bearish signal for the 56-57°F outcome.
• Dew point and overnight cloud cover forecasts from the NWS 48-hour discussion will indicate whether radiative cooling pushes the low below 55°F.
• Atlantic sea surface temperatures near the New York Bight affect marine air influence and can moderate overnight lows, favoring the 58-61°F range.
• A warm-air advection event tied to high pressure building from the south would shift probability mass toward 60°F or above, deflating the primary outcome.

Total volume of $11,953 is modest but not negligible for a single-day weather resolution market. The data currently favors the 56-57°F range as the plurality outcome, consistent with historical late May NYC climatology. Neither the YES nor NO side holds a commanding edge. The NWS forecast in the 12 hours before resolution is the deciding input.

Lean YES, But Stay Flexible

The 56-57°F range sits at the historical center of late May NYC overnight lows, and the market’s 48% probability reflects that statistical reality. The trend score supports a mild lean toward YES, but eleven competing outcomes mean no single range dominates.

What the market says: A 48% implied probability on the leading outcome in an eleven-way market is actually a meaningful signal. In a uniform distribution, each range would hold roughly 9%. The market is concentrating nearly half its probability on a single two-degree window. Volatility will spike in the final hours as the NWS forecast sharpens ahead of the noon May 25 resolution.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service’s final overnight forecast for New York City, specifically whether any frontal system or wind shift moves the expected low outside the 56-57°F range, is the one data point that will reprice every outcome in this contract before it closes.