NYC May 20 Low Temp: Will 70-71°F Hit?

Tomorrow’s overnight low in New York City has traders split almost evenly, with a slight lean toward the 70-71°F range missing rather than landing. That’s the core tension here. One temperature band out of more than a dozen options sits at 38% probability, while everything else combined accounts for the remaining 62%. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science.

This contract resolves at 2026-05-20 12:00:00. The primary outcome, 70-71°F, carries a 38% implied probability. The NO side, meaning any other temperature range, sits at 62%. Total volume is $1,966, which is thin. That matters for how seriously to read the current price.

How the NYC Low Temperature Contract Works

This contract asks one specific question: will the lowest recorded temperature in New York City on May 20, 2026 fall between 70 and 71 degrees Fahrenheit? The YES outcome pays out if official measurements confirm a low in that narrow two-degree band. The NO outcome pays out if the low lands anywhere else, including warmer or cooler ranges. Resolution is tied to the market’s stated resolution source and occurs at 2026-05-20 12:00:00.

• YES (70-71°F): Price 0.38, implied probability 38%
• NO (any other range): Price 0.62, implied probability 62%

The NO side here isn’t one scenario. It’s a coalition of eleven other temperature ranges, from 63°F or below all the way to 82°F or higher. The low needs to land outside 70-71°F for NO to pay. Given how many alternative ranges exist, 62% is actually a modest edge for the field. Any meaningful deviation in the overnight forecast, warmer or cooler, consolidates the NO position.

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Flat Momentum and a Thin Book

The momentum composite here is essentially zero. The 1-hour and 24-hour price changes are both flat at 0.0%, and the trend score of 24.26 signals no directional conviction from recent trading activity. That stillness likely reflects the short time horizon. With resolution less than 24 hours away, traders are waiting on the final weather picture, not reacting to new data.

Market depth is $8,117 in liquidity against $1,966 in total volume, with $1,721 of that trading in the last 24 hours. Volume this thin means a single moderate trade can move the price sharply. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: this market is illiquid enough that the 38% price reflects a small pool of trader opinions, not a deep consensus.

• The 1-hour and 24-hour price changes are both flat, suggesting traders are holding positions ahead of tomorrow’s resolution rather than actively adjusting.
• Total volume of $1,966 puts this well below the $1 million threshold where liquidity provides reliable price signals.
• Liquidity of $8,117 is the order book depth, not trading activity. Price moves sharply on low volume in books this size.
• The trend score of 24.26, combined with flat price action, confirms a waiting pattern rather than a trending one.

Lines Analysis: What the Forecast Says

New York City’s May overnight lows typically run in the mid-to-upper 50s and low 60s, but late May can push warmer when high pressure and humidity combine after a warm day. A 70-71°F overnight low would represent an unusually warm night, closer to summer conditions than typical mid-May. The National Weather Service forecast for the New York metro area on the night of May 19 into May 20 will be the single clearest driver of this contract. A forecast low in the 70-71°F band tightens the YES case substantially. A forecast below 68°F or above 73°F collapses it.

The NO side benefits from simple math: eleven alternative ranges versus one. Even if forecasters favor warm conditions overnight, the precise two-degree window is narrow. The high-end ranges, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, and above, and the cooler ranges below 68°F all count against YES. Warm but not exactly warm enough is a real scenario.

• National Weather Service hourly forecast updates for Central Park or JFK Airport will be the most direct price signal before resolution.
• Any forecast shift placing the overnight low above 72°F or below 70°F reprices the YES probability sharply lower.
• If a warm front or marine layer keeps temperatures elevated, the high-end ranges gain probability at the expense of 70-71°F.
• Overnight cloud cover and humidity matter here. Clear skies allow radiational cooling, potentially pushing the low below the 70°F floor.

At $1,966 in volume, this market reflects a small number of traders making a narrow directional call. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and in weather markets, it doesn’t care about trader sentiment either. The NWS forecast, not this price, is the most reliable indicator right now.

LINES VERDICT

Thin Market, Narrow Band

Eleven competing outcome ranges collectively hold 62% of probability against a single two-degree window at 38%. The market math favors NO on structure alone, even before reading the overnight forecast.

What the market says: Traders put a 38% chance on the overnight low landing precisely in the 70-71°F range. That’s below a coin flip, and with resolution arriving at 2026-05-20 12:00:00, the final NWS hourly forecast is the only remaining input that matters. Thin liquidity means this price can move fast on any new data.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service hourly forecast for New York City on the evening of May 19 into May 20 is the decisive data point. A confirmed forecast low inside 70-71°F would be the clearest case for repricing YES upward before resolution.

Scientific Context

New York City’s average low temperature in late May sits roughly in the mid-to-upper 50s Fahrenheit based on NOAA climatological normals for the metro area. A low of 70-71°F would rank among the warmest overnight minimums for the date. Unusually warm May nights in New York typically require persistent southerly flow, high overnight humidity, and significant cloud cover to suppress radiational cooling. The current market pricing suggests traders view this as plausible but not the most likely single outcome. With more than a decade of NOAA climate data showing late-May lows rarely exceeding 68°F in the city, 38% for 70-71°F is not irrational, but it demands a warm airmass firmly in place by tomorrow night.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 38% probability mean here? It means traders collectively estimate a roughly one-in-three chance that New York City’s official low temperature on May 20 falls specifically between 70 and 71 degrees Fahrenheit.
• What wins the NO contract? Any official NYC low temperature outside the 70-71°F range, whether cooler than 70°F or warmer than 71°F, results in a NO payout. Eleven other ranges are in play.
• What single event would move this price most? A National Weather Service forecast update placing the overnight low firmly inside or outside the 70-71°F window would reprice this contract sharply, given how thin the order book is.
• When does this contract resolve? Resolution is set for 2026-05-20 12:00:00, meaning the measurement window closes at noon on May 20, 2026.
• Is $1,966 in volume enough to trust the price? No. Volume this low means a single trade can shift the price significantly. The 38% figure reflects a small trader pool, not a deep market consensus.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-19 05:18:52. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-20 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.