NYC May 12 Low Temp: Will 48-49°F Hit?

Tomorrow morning in New York City, one temperature band is worth more than all the others. The 48-49°F range sits at 44% implied probability for the lowest temperature on May 12, and the market just repriced sharply to get there. A 17% jump in 24 hours on a weather contract this close to resolution means traders found something in the forecast data worth acting on.

The contract resolves at 2026-05-12 12:00:00, giving the market less than 18 hours to settle. The primary outcome is 48-49°F at $0.44. The field against it, spread across ten other temperature bands, collectively holds 56% of the probability. That spread tells you the market sees this as a real competition, not a foregone conclusion.

How the NYC May 12 Low Temperature Contract Works

This contract pays out if the lowest recorded temperature in New York City on May 12, 2026 falls within the 48-49°F band. Resolution follows the official weather measurement for NYC on that date. The contract closes at noon on May 12, meaning overnight and early morning low readings are the key window.

• 48-49°F (YES): $0.44 per share, 44% implied probability
• 46-47°F: available in the field at lower probability
• 50-51°F: available in the field at lower probability
• 44-45°F and below: represents colder-than-expected scenario bands
• 52-53°F and above: represents warmer-than-expected scenario bands

A colder air mass moving through faster than forecast would push the overnight low below 48°F and land in the 46-47°F band or lower. The National Weather Service short-range model guidance is the most relevant data source here. NWS point forecasts for Central Park typically anchor these outcomes. If the actual low registers at 47°F or 50°F, the 48-49°F contract pays nothing.

Momentum and Market Signals

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The momentum composite here is notable. A flat 1-hour change combined with a 17% 24-hour surge and a trend score of 58.23 signals a burst of conviction, not a slow drift. That pattern typically follows a forecast model update or a tighter NWS short-range guidance run. Someone looked at updated model output for the New York metro area and bought 48-49°F hard.

Total market volume sits at $8,548, with $7,065 of that trading in the last 24 hours. Liquidity is $6,866. These are thin numbers. Volume below $10,000 on a single-outcome weather contract means one medium-sized trade can move the price sharply. The 17% move yesterday confirms that. Treat this price as directionally informative but not deeply anchored.

• The 24-hour volume of $7,065 represents the majority of all trading, meaning yesterday’s session drove most of the price discovery.
• Liquidity at $6,866 is sufficient for small trades but thin enough that a new forecast run could gap the price before resolution.
• The 1-hour flat reading suggests the market has paused after the big move, waiting for the next NWS update or overnight model run.
• The trend score of 58.23 sits in mild-bullish territory for the 48-49°F band, consistent with forecast models currently centering the low in that range.
• Open interest at $0 is unusual and may reflect how the contract is structured. It does not indicate no trading activity.

Lines Analysis: What the Forecast Window Shows

Here is what the measurements are telling us. Mid-May in New York City carries a climatological overnight low in the upper 40s to low 50s. The 48-49°F band sits squarely in that historical envelope for May 12. When forecast models for the Northeast U.S. show a dry air mass with modest radiative cooling overnight, Central Park typically lands in exactly that range. The market’s 17% surge suggests the short-range NWS guidance tightened around that band in the last 24 hours.

The risk to the 48-49°F outcome runs in both directions. A cloud cover increase overnight would trap surface heat and push the low into 50-51°F territory. A faster-than-expected cold front passage would drop the low into 46-47°F or below. NWS hourly point forecasts for New York City are the single most relevant data source between now and resolution. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science. The forecast has error bars, and those error bars cover at least two adjacent bands.

The data doesn’t care about the politics of which temperature band wins. What matters is that the NWS short-range guidance, probably the 18Z or 00Z model run tonight, will either confirm or challenge the 48-49°F consensus. At $8,548 total volume, this market is thin enough that a single trader acting on updated model output could move the price another 10 to 15 points before resolution.

LINES VERDICT

Forecast-Aligned but Thin Market

The 48-49°F band reflects where current NWS short-range guidance appears to be pointing, and the sharp 24-hour repricing confirms traders found signal in recent forecast model output. The thin liquidity means this price is fragile and could shift fast on any model update before the 2026-05-12 12:00:00 close.

What the market says: 44% probability for 48-49°F as NYC’s May 12 overnight low. That is a plurality, not a consensus. With 17% of probability movement in the last 24 hours and resolution less than 18 hours away, this price is active and should be watched through the overnight NWS update cycle.

Key unknown: The NWS short-range point forecast for Central Park in the 00Z to 06Z overnight window is the single data release that will reprice this contract. Cloud cover and wind shift timing around any approaching front are the two physical variables that determine which band captures the actual low.

Scientific and Meteorological Context

New York City’s historical May 12 overnight lows cluster in the 46-54°F range based on Central Park long-term records. The 48-49°F band represents the climatological center of that distribution for mid-May. El Nino and La Nina phase shifts affect seasonal temperature patterns across the Northeast but have limited influence on individual overnight low forecasts at this short a range. The dominant variables within 18 hours of resolution are synoptic-scale weather pattern and local radiative cooling conditions. NWS Upton, the forecast office responsible for New York City, issues updated short-range guidance every six hours. Those updates are the most actionable data between now and the 2026-05-12 12:00:00 resolution.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 44% probability mean here? It means the market assigns a 44-in-100 chance that NYC’s official low on May 12 lands specifically in the 48-49°F band. Ten other temperature bands split the remaining 56%.
• What does it mean if this contract does not resolve YES? If the official NYC low on May 12 falls in any band other than 48-49°F, the 48-49°F contract pays nothing. Adjacent bands like 46-47°F or 50-51°F would capture the payout instead.
• What data release would move this price most? The NWS short-range point forecast update for Central Park overnight, specifically the 00Z or 06Z model run, is the most likely catalyst for a significant price shift before resolution.
• When does this contract resolve? The contract resolves at 2026-05-12 12:00:00, based on the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on May 12, 2026.
• Is this market liquid enough to trust the price? Total volume is $8,548 and liquidity is $6,866. That is thin. A single trade of a few hundred dollars can move the price meaningfully. Treat the 44% figure as a directional signal, not a deeply anchored probability.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-11 18:13:33. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-12 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.