NYC June 28 Low Temperature: 68-69°F at 68%

The overnight low temperature for New York City on June 28 has the prediction market locked in. The 68-69°F band is priced at 68 cents, after a 35-point surge in 24 hours that wiped out nearly every competing scenario. That kind of single-day price movement almost never happens in a vacuum. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: traders have seen enough real or forecast data to converge hard on one two-degree band out of eleven possible outcomes.

This market asks which two-degree band captures the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on June 28, 2026, resolving at noon Eastern. The 68-69°F outcome trades at $0.68 YES and $0.32 NO. Total volume stands at $12,833, with $11,400 of that arriving in the last 24 hours alone. The market closes today.

How the 68-69°F NYC Low Temperature Contract Works

The market resolves YES if the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on June 28 falls between 68°F and 69°F inclusive. The resolution source is market resolution, meaning the determining body will rely on observed meteorological data, most likely from the National Weather Service station at Central Park. If the low falls outside that two-degree window, every other band competes for the payout.

• YES ($0.68): The NYC low on June 28 lands at 68°F or 69°F, confirmed by official observation.
• NO ($0.32): The NYC low falls in any other band, from 59°F or below through 78°F or higher.

The NO outcome pays if the actual low misses the 68-69°F window in either direction. The next nearest competitors are 70-71°F and 66-67°F. A warmer-than-expected overnight, driven by a persistent urban heat island effect or southerly flow, pushes the low into the 70-71°F band and voids the YES. A stronger-than-forecast cold front or maritime influence drops the low into 66-67°F territory and does the same. Both scenarios are possible but the market is clearly discounting them heavily after today’s surge.

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Market Momentum and What the 35-Point Surge Signals

The 1-hour and 24-hour momentum combine into one clear directional signal: this market moved with urgency. A 35% gain in 24 hours, from roughly $0.31 to $0.68, with a trend score of 64.08, reflects traders acting on information that narrowed the temperature range substantially. That driver is almost certainly the National Weather Service hourly observation or a high-confidence short-range forecast issued in the past 18 hours. The data doesn’t care about the politics of which band wins. When a market this close to resolution surges like this, the signal is information, not sentiment.

Total volume of $12,833 is modest by multi-million-dollar market standards, and $11,400 arriving in the final 24 hours confirms this is a late-breaking conviction play, not a slow institutional accumulation. Liquidity sits at $27,513, which is healthy relative to the volume. That said, with total volume under $1 million, a single large order in the final hours could still move the price meaningfully if new observational data contradicts the current consensus band.

• The 35% 24-hour price surge on 68-69°F reflects a near-complete collapse of uncertainty across competing bands.
• The 1-hour flat reading at 0.0% change suggests the market has found temporary equilibrium at 68 cents, pending any final NWS observation update.
• Volume concentration in the last 24 hours points to traders acting on fresh meteorological data rather than pre-positioning.
• Liquidity at $27,513 remains above volume, which is a sign the order book can absorb moderate late-breaking trades without violent repricing.
• Competing bands (70-71°F, 66-67°F) have been effectively repriced to long-shot territory by today’s movement.

Lines Analysis: What the NWS Data and Market Structure Say

The National Weather Service Central Park observations drive resolution for any NYC temperature market. Late June overnight lows in New York City typically range from 65°F to 74°F depending on air mass, surface wind direction, and urban heat retention. The 68-69°F band sits near the center of a late-June climatological range, making it a plausible target under moderate conditions, neither a heat wave retention event nor an early cold front intrusion. The 68% probability says the market believes exactly those moderate conditions prevailed last night.

What makes NO real is a deviation from the forecast range in either direction. If persistent southwest flow or urban heat retention kept the temperature above 70°F at the overnight minimum, the 70-71°F band captures the resolution. If a maritime boundary layer or unexpected cloud clearing allowed more radiative cooling, the 66-67°F band becomes relevant. The market at 32 cents on NO is pricing these scenarios as unlikely but not impossible, which is the correct posture for a same-day temperature market still awaiting official confirmation.

• The NWS Central Park hourly observation is the definitive signal. Any update showing the confirmed low outside 68-69°F reprices this market immediately.
• A final NWS climate summary for June 28, typically published by mid-morning, would lock in the official low before noon resolution.
• Stronger-than-forecast southerly winds overnight would push the low toward the 70-71°F band and pressure YES holders.
• An unexpected boundary layer cooling event or marine influence from the Atlantic would benefit the 66-67°F band at YES’s expense.
• No further competing temperature bands have shown meaningful price movement, suggesting the market is converged, not fragmented.

The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, but in this case the uncertainty has nearly resolved. Total volume of $12,833 and the late concentration of trades suggest informed players saw the NWS data or a high-confidence forecast and acted. The data favors YES on 68-69°F. The remaining 32 cents on NO is a real-world hedge against the small but non-trivial chance the official observation lands just outside the window.

LINES VERDICT

STRONG LEAN YES

The 35-point single-day surge, concentrated in the final hours before a noon resolution, reflects traders who have seen the overnight low data or a forecast narrow enough to act with conviction. The 68-69°F band is where the meteorological evidence has pointed the market.

What the market says: At 68% implied probability, the 68-69°F band has absorbed nearly all the confidence that was spread across eleven competing outcomes 24 hours ago. With resolution at noon today, volatility risk is almost entirely confined to official NWS observation confirmation.

Key unknown: The single most important data point is the official National Weather Service hourly or daily minimum temperature observation for New York City on June 28. If that number is published before noon and lands outside 68-69°F, this market reprices sharply and immediately.