Paris June 28 Low Temp: Will It Hit Twenty-Two Celsius?

Paris meteorology markets rarely trade this actively two days out from resolution. The lowest temperature on June 28 in Paris has attracted $10,999 in total volume, with nearly half of that landing in the last 24 hours. The market currently prices 22°C at 43.5% probability, meaning traders see it as the most likely single outcome but still short of consensus certainty. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the overnight low on June 28 sits at a fork between 21°C and 23°C, with 22°C holding the narrow lead.

The market question asks: what will the lowest temperature in Paris be on June 28? The YES price on 22°C sits at $0.44. The NO price sits at $0.57. The market resolves on June 28, 2026 at 12:00 UTC. Total volume stands at $10,999, with $5,231 traded in the last 24 hours alone.

How the Twenty-Two Celsius Contract Works

This is a single-outcome contract within a multi-outcome temperature market. YES pays out if the lowest recorded temperature in Paris on June 28 matches exactly 22°C. Resolution depends on the designated meteorological data source for this market. Alternative outcomes include 21°C, 23°C, 20°C, 19°C, 24°C, 25°C, 26°C, 27°C, 28°C or higher, and 18°C or below. Each outcome trades independently.

• YES at $0.44: Pays out if the Paris minimum on June 28 registers exactly 22°C. Implied probability: 43.5%.
• NO at $0.57: Pays out if the minimum lands on any other outcome. Implied probability: 56.5%.

The NO side wins when Paris overnight temperatures settle at 21°C, 23°C, or any other listed outcome instead of 22°C. Late June in Paris typically sees overnight lows between 15°C and 22°C, with heat wave conditions capable of pushing minimums well above that range. A strong warm airmass or urban heat retention on the night of June 27 to 28 would keep the minimum elevated. A clearer sky or Atlantic breeze would pull it lower toward 20°C or 21°C.

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Momentum and Market Signals Moving Into Resolution

The momentum composite here is unmistakably bullish over 24 hours. The 22°C contract gained 9.0% in the last 24 hours, with a trend score of 48.83, suggesting sustained buying pressure rather than a single spike. The most likely driver is updated numerical weather prediction runs from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts or Météo-France, which would have refreshed overnight June 26 to 27 with higher confidence on the June 28 minimum.

Total volume of $10,999 is thin by prediction market standards. The $5,231 in 24-hour volume shows the market is active relative to its size, but liquidity of $25,883 in the order book means a single mid-sized trade could shift the price meaningfully. This market is volatile to new weather model data. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and here there is no politics: only the atmosphere and how accurately models are resolving a 36-hour forecast window.

• 24h momentum: +9.0% on 22°C, connected to improved model agreement on the June 28 Paris overnight low in the 21°C to 23°C band.
• 1h change: flat at 0.0%, suggesting the overnight model run has been digested and the market is holding its position into the day.
• Trend score of 48.83 reflects moderate conviction, not extreme positioning. The 22°C outcome leads but has not locked in.
• Volume below $1M means price is sensitive to new information. A Météo-France forecast update or ECMWF ensemble shift could reprice this contract sharply before June 28.
• Liquidity at $25,883 is comparatively deep relative to total volume, suggesting market makers are maintaining a functioning order book.

Lines Analysis: Paris Temperature Forecasting on a Tight Window

The case for 22°C rests on late June climatology and current synoptic conditions. Paris sits in a zone where June overnight lows frequently cluster between 18°C and 22°C. During heat wave episodes, minimum temperatures can exceed 24°C. Absent a heat dome, 22°C represents the warm end of a normal overnight range. The 24-hour buying surge on this contract suggests recent model runs have converged on a warmer-than-average overnight minimum, consistent with the persistent warm pattern affecting Western Europe in mid-2026.

The competing outcomes that challenge 22°C are 21°C and 23°C. A one-degree shift in either direction would flip the contract. Forecast uncertainty at 36 hours for a single-station overnight minimum is real. Météo-France typically achieves high accuracy within 48 hours, but the precise degree matters here. Urban heat island effects at Paris Montsouris or Orly, which are the standard measurement stations for Paris temperature records, add another degree of variability. If cloud cover breaks earlier than forecast, radiative cooling pulls the minimum toward 21°C. If cloud cover persists or winds stay southerly, 23°C becomes more likely.

• Météo-France 48-hour forecast update for Paris, due before market close, is the single most important signal. A shift in minimum temperature projection by one degree reprices this market directly.
• ECMWF ensemble spread on June 28 Paris minimum: if ensemble members cluster tightly on 22°C, YES price rises. Wide spread weakens conviction on any single outcome.
• Synoptic wind direction on the night of June 27 to 28: southerly or easterly flow retains heat; northwesterly Atlantic advection cools the minimum toward 20°C or 21°C.
• Cloud cover persistence: overcast skies suppress radiative cooling and support a higher minimum. Clear skies after midnight drive the low toward 21°C or below.
• Station-level data from Météo-France Montsouris or Orly: these are the likely resolution sources. Any discrepancy between stations matters for exact-degree resolution.

The market is pricing uncertainty, not science. At $10,999 total volume, this is a thin market with real weather data driving it. The 24-hour momentum and current implied probability of 43.5% suggest 22°C is the market’s best single guess, but the NO side at 56.5% reflects the honest reality that pinpointing an exact-degree overnight minimum 36 hours out carries genuine model error. The data favors 22°C as the modal outcome. It does not favor it as a certainty.

LINES VERDICT

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The 22°C outcome holds the strongest single-outcome probability in this market, backed by 24-hour buying momentum and late-June Paris climatology. But with resolution in under 48 hours and forecast uncertainty at the one-degree level, the NO side remains rational.

What the market says: At 43.5% implied probability, the market treats 22°C as the most likely single outcome while acknowledging the combined probability of all other outcomes is higher. Volatility is elevated heading into June 28, and this contract can reprice sharply on any fresh Météo-France or ECMWF model output before resolution.

Key unknown: The next Météo-France 48-hour deterministic forecast for Paris minimum temperature on June 28 is the single data point that would most directly reprice this contract. A model shift of even one degree changes the winner.