NYC July 8 Low Temp: Can 66-67°F Hold at 32%?

New York City’s overnight low on July 8 is a tighter call than a single weather model can settle. The 66-67°F band currently prices at 31.5% implied probability, making it the market leader in a field of eleven outcome buckets. That lead is narrow. The 68-69°F range sits close behind, and the spread across adjacent bands tells you traders are genuinely uncertain about where the mercury bottoms out overnight.

The market question is simple: what is the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on July 8, 2026? The YES price for 66-67°F sits at 0.32, the NO price at 0.69, and the contract resolves at noon on July 8. Total volume is $4,541, all of it placed in the last 24 hours.

How the 66-67°F Contract Works

This is a categorical temperature market. Traders pick a two-degree band, and whichever band matches the official low temperature wins. The resolution source is market resolution, meaning the operator will confirm the final reading against an authoritative New York City weather record. There is no partial credit. Only one band pays out.

• YES (66-67°F) prices at 0.32, implying a 31.5% chance this band captures the overnight low.
• NO prices at 0.69, reflecting a 68.5% chance the low lands in any other band.

For the NO side to pay, the overnight low needs to fall outside 66-67°F. That means dropping to 65°F or below, or climbing to 68°F or above at its coolest point. July overnight lows in New York City have historically clustered in the upper 60s during the first week of the month, but humidity, wind, and timing of afternoon thunderstorms all shift that range by several degrees on any given night.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is weak. The 1-hour price change is flat at 0.0%, there is no 24-hour comparison available, and the trend score of 41.62 sits below the midpoint. That combination points to a market that placed its initial bets and is now waiting for updated forecast data closer to the overnight window. The market opened at 0.25 and moved to 0.32 before pulling back slightly on July 7, suggesting early traders leaned toward this band before hesitating.

Total volume is $4,541 and 24-hour volume matches that figure exactly, meaning this market is brand new. Liquidity stands at $22,685, which is healthy relative to volume. However, with total volume well under $1 million, a single large bet can move this price sharply. Thin volume markets like this one reprice quickly when new National Weather Service forecasts drop.

• The 1-hour price change of flat and the trend score below 50 together signal a pause, not a directional move.
• Volume of $4,541 means every trade here carries outsized price influence.
• Liquidity at $22,685 provides a reasonable order book, but do not mistake that for deep conviction.
• The market opened at 0.25 and reached 0.32, a 28% rise, before the July 7 pullback cooled enthusiasm.
• With no whale trades on record, no single large position is anchoring this price.

Lines Analysis: What the Forecast Favors

The National Weather Service forecast for New York City on the night of July 7 into July 8 is the single most important input here. July lows in the city historically sit between 65°F and 72°F during the first half of the month, with the median closer to 68-70°F. The 66-67°F band represents a cooler-than-average outcome, not an extreme one. If a frontal boundary moves through the area during the afternoon of July 7, it can drag overnight lows down into that range. That is the core thesis for the YES position.

What makes the NO case compelling is that the 66-67°F band is only one of eleven outcomes, and the two adjacent bands (64-65°F and 68-69°F) each carry meaningful probability. Temperatures in New York City on summer nights are sensitive to cloud cover, urban heat island effects, and whether sea breeze circulation develops. Any of those factors can push the low two to four degrees in either direction. The market is not pricing bad science. The market is pricing genuine meteorological uncertainty across a narrow window.

• A National Weather Service forecast update showing overnight lows in the upper 60s would shift probability toward the 68-69°F band and away from YES here.
• A forecast showing a stronger-than-expected cold front passage would boost the 64-65°F band and push YES probability down.
• High overnight humidity without wind tends to keep urban lows elevated, favoring the 68-69°F or 70-71°F bands.
• Any confirmed thunderstorm passage during the evening of July 7 could cool surface temperatures enough to land in the 66-67°F range.
• The resolution timestamp of noon on July 8 means the official low will already be recorded before most traders wake up on the East Coast.

Total volume of $4,541 is thin enough that this analysis is preliminary. The data right now leans modestly toward the 66-67°F band as the most likely single outcome, but most of the probability mass sits in adjacent bands. No single forecast or measurement strongly favors YES over the combined NO field.

Leading Band, Not a Strong Conviction

The 66-67°F band is the most likely single outcome but not the majority bet. The NO field combines ten other bands, most of which are meteorologically plausible on any July night in New York City.

What the market says: At 31.5% implied probability, the market calls 66-67°F the plurality leader while keeping most probability in adjacent temperature ranges. With the contract resolving at noon on July 8, any forecast update in the next 18 hours can reprice this fast.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service forecast update for the overnight low on July 7 into July 8 is the single data point that will move this market. A two-degree shift in the predicted low pulls probability sharply into a neighboring band.