NYC July 7 Low Temp: Will 66-67°F Hit?

Overnight lows in New York City on July 7 are a hyperlocal weather bet with a tight window. The 66-67°F bracket holds a 33.5% implied probability, making it the leading single outcome in a field of eleven. That lead is narrow. Seven other brackets sit within striking distance, and no single outcome commands a majority.

This market asks a simple question: what will NYC’s lowest temperature be on July 7, 2026? The 66-67°F outcome is priced at $0.34 YES and $0.67 NO. The market resolves at noon on July 7. Total volume stands at $3,084, all traded in the last 24 hours.

How the NYC July 7 Low Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on July 7, 2026 falls between 66°F and 67°F. The resolution source is market resolution based on official weather observation data. Any verified low outside that two-degree band makes this contract worthless.

• YES ($0.34): Official NYC low on July 7 lands between 66°F and 67°F inclusive.
• NO ($0.67): Official NYC low falls outside the 66-67°F range, anywhere from 57°F or below up to 76°F or higher.

The NO side covers ten competing brackets. Even if 66-67°F is the most likely single outcome, it only needs to lose to one of the other ten for NO to pay out. The adjacent brackets, 64-65°F and 68-69°F, each pull probability away from the leading outcome. A forecast shift of two degrees in either direction is enough to flip this contract.

Momentum and Market Signals

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The momentum composite here is essentially flat. The trend score sits at 52.96, the one-hour change is zero, and no 24-hour comparison is available given the market’s very recent launch. The market is not moving on sentiment. It is moving on forecast data as traders watch updated NWS guidance for July 7.

Total volume is $3,084, all of it generated in the past 24 hours. Liquidity is $20,846, which is healthy relative to volume. But with total volume well below $1,000,000, this market is thin. A single large bet or a meaningful forecast revision could reprice all the competing brackets quickly.

• The 66-67°F bracket holds 33.5% implied probability, the single largest share in an eleven-outcome field.
• One-hour price change is flat at zero, and no prior-day baseline exists for comparison, leaving trend direction ambiguous.
• Liquidity at $20,846 exceeds volume by roughly seven times, suggesting the order book is deeper than current trading activity implies.
• Thin volume below $1,000,000 means any updated National Weather Service forecast for the July 7 overnight period could move this price sharply.
• The 68-69°F and 64-65°F adjacent brackets represent the most direct competition, pulling probability from the leading outcome.

Lines Analysis: NYC Overnight Low on July Seven

The National Weather Service forecast for New York City on July 7 is the single most important input here. July overnight lows in NYC typically range from the low 60s to the mid-70s, with the 66-70°F band being historically common during the first week of July. A synoptic pattern with modest maritime influence and no strong cold front would keep the low in the 66-69°F corridor, which benefits this bracket directly.

The conditions that would send this contract to zero are real. A stronger-than-expected cold front pushing through the tri-state area before midnight on July 6 could drag lows into the 62-65°F range. Conversely, a persistent southwesterly flow or urban heat retention on a hot afternoon could push the overnight low toward 70°F or above. Neither scenario is implausible in early July. The margin between adjacent brackets is just two degrees, well within normal forecast uncertainty.

• National Weather Service 48-hour forecast update for NYC on July 6 will be the clearest directional signal for all temperature brackets.
• Dewpoint and afternoon high temperature on July 6 will constrain how far the overnight low can fall, a critical input for the 64-65°F and lower brackets.
• Cloud cover forecast matters: clear skies after midnight allow more radiative cooling, favoring the 64-65°F bracket over 66-67°F.
• Any front passage timing, specifically whether it arrives before or after the daily low is recorded, would shift probability sharply toward lower brackets.
• Central Park observation data from the prior two nights will give traders a calibration baseline for how the official reading is tracking against model output.

The $3,084 in total volume reflects a market in early price discovery. The data favors no single outcome with high conviction. The 66-67°F bracket leads by probability share but not by enough to treat as settled. The weather forecast, not trader sentiment, will determine where this resolves.

LINES VERDICT

LEADING OUTCOME, LOW CONVICTION

The 66-67°F bracket holds the top probability position in a crowded eleven-way field, but a two-degree forecast shift in either direction erases that edge entirely.

What the market says: At 33.5% implied probability, the market is not expressing strong conviction. It is distributing probability across a wide temperature range. With resolution just hours away on July 7, any updated NWS guidance will be the dominant price driver.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service forecast update for the July 7 overnight low in New York City, specifically whether model guidance shifts the expected low above 68°F or below 66°F, is the single event that would reprice this contract and all competing brackets before resolution.