NYC April 26 Low Temp: Will 42-43°F Hold?

The market on New York City’s lowest temperature for April 26 sits at 47.5% for the 42-43°F band. That is essentially a coin flip, and that is the honest answer when you are trying to nail a two-degree window on a single overnight reading. The 24-hour price movement tells the real story: traders pushed this contract up 44% in a single day, converging on 42-43°F as the most defensible range given current atmospheric setup over the Northeast.

This contract resolves at 2026-04-26 12:00:00, which means only the overnight low through early morning counts. Total volume sits at $31,851, with $29,448 of that arriving in the last 24 hours. At that volume level, a single large trade can move the price meaningfully. This is a thin market. The $257,058 in liquidity looks deep relative to volume, but it also means the book has not been tested by serious two-way flow.

How the 42-43°F Contract Works

The contract pays YES if the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on April 26 falls between 42°F and 43°F inclusive. The market uses weather station data tied to the New York City observation record, consistent with National Weather Service reporting for Central Park or the primary NYC observing site. Everything else on the board, from 40-41°F down to 35°F or below, and from 44-45°F up to 54°F or higher, pays NO on this specific contract.

• YES (42-43°F): $0.48 per share, implying 47.5% probability.
• NO (any other outcome): $0.53 per share, implying 52.5% probability.

The NO side covers every outcome outside that two-degree band. That is a wide net. April overnight lows in New York City swing across a broad range depending on whether a cold front pushes through or stalls offshore. The National Weather Service forecast for the overnight period ending April 26 morning is the key input here. If the low comes in at 44°F, NO wins. If it drops to 41°F, NO wins. The 42-43°F band has to be exact.

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Momentum and What the Market Is Signaling

The 24-hour gain of 44%, a trend score of 63.53, and flat one-hour movement together tell one story: traders made a decisive move toward 42-43°F as the leading range, then stopped. The flat one-hour reading means positioning has stabilized. No new information arrived in the last hour to push the price further. That pattern suggests traders are waiting on the overnight to play out rather than adding more exposure.

Total market volume of $31,851 is thin by any standard. The $29,448 in 24-hour volume means nearly all of this market’s activity happened today. Below $1 million in volume, this price is genuinely fragile. One forecast update from the National Weather Service, or a trader with conviction, could reprice the contract by 10 to 15 percentage points before resolution.

• The 1-hour price change of +0.0% indicates positioning has stabilized after a sharp intraday run.
• The 24-hour change of +44.0% reflects a significant repricing toward the 42-43°F band, likely tied to updated forecast models.
• The trend score of 63.53 reflects moderate conviction, not a dominant directional push.
• Liquidity of $257,058 is high relative to volume, meaning the order book has depth but has not absorbed serious two-way trading.
• Thin volume below $1 million means any surprise in the overnight low will move this price sharply at or near resolution.

Lines Analysis: Central Park and the Overnight Setup

Here is what the measurements are telling us. April 26 overnight lows in New York City historically cluster in the low-to-mid 40s during late April, with Central Park’s climatological average low for the date sitting in the 44-46°F range depending on the year. A reading of 42-43°F would represent a slightly cooler-than-average night, consistent with a cold air mass trailing a frontal passage. If a front cleared the area on April 25, the residual cold air pooling overnight supports this range.

What keeps the NO side real is the width of the competing outcomes. The adjacent bands, 40-41°F and 44-45°F, each represent plausible alternatives. A front that stalls slightly earlier or later shifts the overnight minimum by two to four degrees. The National Weather Service hourly forecast for the overnight hours is the single most important input. If the model consensus has the low at 43°F, there is still meaningful probability that the actual reading comes in at 42°F or 44°F, both of which resolve this contract NO.

• National Weather Service overnight forecast for NYC: any revision toward 44°F or above would pressure the YES price lower.
• Actual Central Park hourly temperature reports through the overnight: the first reading below 43°F would strengthen YES conviction.
• Wind speed and cloud cover: clear skies and calm winds favor radiative cooling toward the lower end of the range, supporting the 42-43°F band.
• Frontal timing: if a secondary cold push arrives after midnight, the low could drop toward 40-41°F and shift probability to that band.

The $31,851 in total volume reflects a market where a handful of informed traders made a call on forecast model output. The data favors the 42-43°F band as the modal outcome given current atmospheric setup. But at 47.5%, the market is pricing uncertainty correctly. This is not a settled scientific question. It is a one-night measurement call with a two-degree margin for error.

LINES VERDICT

Slight Edge to the Low Forties Band, Outcome Genuinely Open

The overnight setup supports 42-43°F as the most likely single band, but the two-degree target leaves too much room for the actual reading to land one degree higher or lower. The market has this priced correctly as a near-toss-up.

What the market says: 47.5% probability for the 42-43°F outcome, with a sharp 44% price move in 24 hours reflecting a meaningful forecast-driven repricing. Thin volume means the price remains vulnerable to sudden shifts before the 2026-04-26 12:00:00 resolution.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service final overnight forecast for New York City, specifically whether the predicted low lands inside the 42-43°F window or shifts into an adjacent band, is the single data point that will determine this contract’s outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 47.5% probability mean here? It means the market assigns roughly even odds that New York City’s official low on April 26 falls between 42°F and 43°F. It is not a guarantee, and it reflects genuine uncertainty in a tight temperature window.
• What does the NO contract pay out on? Any recorded low outside the 42-43°F band, including 40-41°F, 44-45°F, or any other listed outcome, resolves this contract NO. NO covers the full range of competing outcomes.
• What data or event would move this price before resolution? A National Weather Service forecast update pushing the predicted NYC low above 44°F or below 41°F would reprice this contract sharply toward competing bands.
• When does this contract resolve? The resolution date is 2026-04-26 12:00:00, meaning the official overnight low temperature through early morning on April 26 determines the outcome.
• Is the volume reliable for reading the market signal? Total volume of $31,851 is thin. Below $1 million, single trades can move the price significantly, so the current 47.5% reading should be treated as a rough signal, not a precise probability.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-04-25 22:10:17. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-04-26 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.