Miami Overnight Low on May 25: Can It Hit 78-79°F?

Late May in Miami means one thing for overnight temperatures: they stay stubbornly warm. The market is currently pricing a 45.5% chance that the lowest temperature in Miami on May 25 lands in the 78-79°F range. That is the leading outcome in a crowded field of eleven possible brackets. But with ten competing outcomes splitting the remaining probability, this contract reflects genuine meteorological uncertainty, not a settled forecast.

The market question asks: what is the lowest temperature recorded in Miami on May 25? The primary outcome, 78-79°F, is priced at $0.46 YES and $0.55 NO, resolving at noon on May 25, 2026. Total volume sits at $8,880, with $4,919 traded in the last 24 hours and $28,730 in liquidity backing the order book.

How the 78-79°F Contract Works

YES pays out if Miami’s official overnight low on May 25 falls between 78°F and 79°F inclusive. The resolution source is the market’s designated data feed tracking the official low temperature reading for Miami. The contract closes at noon on May 25, 2026.

• YES ($0.46): the overnight low lands in the 78-79°F bracket.
• NO ($0.55): the overnight low falls in any other bracket, from 73°F or below up to 92°F or higher.

The NO side holds a slight edge at 54.5% implied probability. That edge is logical: with ten alternative outcomes sharing the remaining probability mass, any single bracket failing to resolve YES is the statistical default. The overnight low landing at 76-77°F, 80-81°F, or 82-83°F would each individually defeat this contract. Miami’s late-May climate clusters overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s, which means several adjacent brackets are also live.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The trend score sits at 65.18, leaning modestly toward the leading outcome. With no 1-hour or 24-hour price change data available, the clearest signal is the 24-hour volume: $4,919 traded out of an $8,880 total, meaning more than half the market’s volume arrived in the last day. That suggests traders are actively positioning as the resolution date closes in, not sitting idle.

Total volume of $8,880 is well below the $1 million threshold. Thin liquidity means this price can move sharply on any updated forecast data or even a single large order. The $28,730 in liquidity provides some buffer, but treat the 45.5% probability as a live estimate subject to revision, not a locked-in consensus.

• The trend score of 65.18 signals mild bullish lean toward the 78-79°F bracket, though no momentum data confirms a directional catalyst yet.
• 24-hour volume of $4,919 shows late-stage positioning as May 25 approaches, consistent with traders watching forecast updates.
• Thin overall volume below $1M means a single large trade could reprice this contract meaningfully before resolution.
• Ten competing outcome brackets dilute probability across the full temperature range, keeping NO structurally favored for any single bracket.
• Adjacent brackets, particularly 76-77°F and 80-81°F, are the most likely destinations if this contract misses YES.

Lines Analysis: Miami’s Late-May Overnight Pattern

Miami’s climate record supports overnight lows clustering in the upper 70s and low 80s through late May. The 78-79°F bracket sits at the core of that historical range, which is why it commands the highest single-bracket probability at 45.5%. National Weather Service data for Miami consistently shows late-May overnight lows hovering in this zone, with sea surface temperatures and humidity keeping nighttime readings elevated.

The risk to YES is straightforward: the overnight low overshoots into the 80-81°F or 82-83°F range, or undershoots into 76-77°F. Miami’s overnight lows in late May can nudge above 80°F during warm spells driven by southerly flow off the warm Atlantic. A stronger-than-expected sea breeze reversal or an afternoon convective system clearing before midnight could pull temperatures a degree or two lower, landing in the 76-77°F bracket instead.

• National Weather Service Miami forecast updates, particularly the overnight low projection for May 25, are the single most important input for this contract.
• Any shift in the NWS forecast toward 80°F or above would pressure YES and benefit the 80-81°F bracket.
• A thunderstorm complex moving through Miami on the evening of May 24 could produce brief evaporative cooling, potentially pulling the low toward 76-77°F.
• Sea surface temperatures in Biscayne Bay and the adjacent Atlantic remain warm in late May, acting as a floor against significant cooling.
• Clear skies and light winds on the night of May 24-25 would support radiative cooling, favoring the lower end of the range.

The data points toward 78-79°F as the most probable single outcome, but the combined probability of all other brackets still exceeds this contract’s YES price. Total volume of $8,880 reflects a small but active market. The measurements favor YES, but the distribution of remaining probability keeps this genuinely contested.

LINES VERDICT

LEADING OUTCOME WITH GENUINE SPREAD RISK

The 78-79°F bracket holds the highest single-outcome probability in a crowded eleven-bracket market. Miami’s late-May overnight climate supports this range, but the math of competing brackets makes NO the slight statistical favorite.

What the market says: At 45.5% implied probability, the market is pricing real uncertainty across a tight temperature range. This is a thin-volume contract, meaning the price is live and will shift with any updated NWS forecast before the May 25 noon resolution.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service overnight low forecast for Miami on May 25 is the single data point that would reprice this contract. Any revision above 80°F or below 77°F would significantly shift probability away from the 78-79°F bracket.