Miami Lowest Temp May 16: Can 76-77°F Hold at 57%?

Miami overnight lows in mid-May are rarely dramatic. But a single temperature band, 76-77°F, is now trading at 57% probability heading into tomorrow’s resolution window. That price jumped 24.5% in the last 24 hours, which means something shifted fast. The question is whether that move reflects real meteorological signal or thin-market noise on a $9,027 book.

Here is what the measurements are telling us. Miami in mid-May sits in a climate window where overnight lows cluster tightly between 74°F and 79°F. The 76-77°F band is the modal outcome for this time of year. The market is essentially betting on the most statistically ordinary thing happening. That is not a boring trade. It is a high-probability, low-drama contract where the edge lives in the tails.

How the 76-77°F Contract Works

This market resolves on the official lowest temperature recorded in Miami on May 16, 2026, with a resolution cutoff at 2026-05-16 12:00:00. The source is weather observation data. YES pays if the overnight low on May 16 falls between 76°F and 77°F, inclusive. Every other temperature band is a losing outcome for this contract.

• YES (76-77°F): $0.57 implied probability of 57%
• NO (any other band): $0.43 implied probability of 43%

The NO side covers a wide range of outcomes: 74-75°F, 73°F or below, 78-79°F, and every warmer band up to 92°F or higher. For NO to pay out, Miami’s overnight low on May 16 simply has to land outside the 76-77°F window. That is not a difficult ask. Overnight lows in Miami have significant day-to-day variability driven by sea breeze timing, cloud cover, and passing frontal systems. A degree or two of deviation in either direction resolves this contract for the NO side.

Momentum and Market Signals

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A Single-Day Surge in a Thin Book

The momentum composite here is the whole story. A 24.5% price jump over 24 hours, paired with a trend score of 81.96, signals a sharp directional move. In a deep liquid market, that kind of move usually follows a major data release or forecast revision. In a $9,027 total volume market, it can follow a single trader placing a meaningful bet.

Total market volume sits at $9,027, with $6,747 of that trading in the last 24 hours. Liquidity registers at $43,503. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and with volume this thin, a single large order can swing the probability by double digits. That $6,747 in 24-hour volume is unusually high relative to total volume, which suggests the recent price move was driven by concentrated activity, not broad consensus. Thin liquidity means this price can move sharply on any updated forecast data before the 2026-05-16 12:00:00 resolution.

• The 1-hour and 24-hour price change are identical at +24.5%, indicating the full move happened in a compressed window, consistent with a single catalyst or trade.
• The trend score of 81.96 reflects strong directional momentum, but in a thin book, momentum is easier to manufacture and faster to reverse.
• Total open interest is $0, meaning no positions are currently marked as open, which limits the ability to read trader conviction from that metric alone.
• The 76-77°F band moved from a 30-day low of 14 cents to 57 cents at current pricing, a substantial rerating that needs a weather or volume explanation to trust.

Lines Analysis: Miami’s Overnight Low on May 16

National Weather Service data and historical NOAA records for Miami in mid-May support 76-77°F as a statistically plausible overnight low range. Miami’s sea surface temperatures in May typically stay above 80°F, which keeps overnight lows from dropping far below the mid-70s. A 57% probability on the modal outcome is not absurd. The data doesn’t care about the politics of whether this trade looks clean. If the forecast for May 16 is showing an overnight low in the 76-77°F corridor, the market is reading that signal correctly.

The NO case is structurally simple. Overnight lows in Miami on any given mid-May date can drift into the 74-75°F range if a weak front passes or cloud cover breaks earlier than expected. They can also stay warmer, in the 78-79°F band, if onshore flow is persistent. The National Weather Service Miami forecast is the single most relevant input right now. A forecast revision of even one degree in either direction would reprice this contract immediately.

• National Weather Service Miami overnight forecast for May 16 is the primary signal to monitor before resolution.
• Any shift in Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies or onshore wind patterns would affect the low temperature reading directly.
• NOAA’s surface observation network at Miami International Airport provides the official measurement that determines resolution.
• A late-day convective event on May 15 could temporarily lower overnight temperatures, pushing the low below the 76°F floor.
• Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf Stream region typically keeps overnight lows elevated, supporting the warmer bands.

With a $9,027 market and the resolution window closing at 2026-05-16 12:00:00, the forecast is the only variable left. The 57% price reflects one plausible reading of the current NWS forecast. If that forecast holds, the YES side is in a reasonable position. If it shifts, this price will move fast.

LINES VERDICT

Forecast-Dependent, Thin Book

The 76-77°F band is the statistically modal outcome for Miami in mid-May, and a 57% market price reflects that reality. But thin volume and a single-session price spike mean this probability is fragile and one forecast revision away from a sharp reversal.

What the market says: Fifty-seven percent of contract value sits on the overnight low landing in the 76-77°F window. That is a slim majority on a multi-band market, and with volume under $10,000, the price can shift significantly on new data before the 2026-05-16 12:00:00 cutoff.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service Miami overnight low forecast for May 16 is the single data point that determines whether this price holds or collapses. A one-degree revision in either direction is enough to reprice this contract.

Scientific Context

Miami’s climate in mid-May sits at the transition between spring and early hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the Florida Straits typically average 82-84°F by mid-May, which acts as a thermal floor for overnight air temperatures. NOAA historical data for Miami International Airport shows overnight lows in the 74-80°F range are the norm for the second week of May, with the 76-78°F zone representing the most frequent outcomes. The 76-77°F band captures roughly one-fifth of historical mid-May nights in Miami, which makes a 57% probability look aggressive relative to base rates alone. The recent price surge likely reflects a specific forecast alignment rather than a broad recalibration of climatological probability. Any update to the NWS point forecast before 2026-05-16 12:00:00 will be the decisive repricing event.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does a 57% probability mean here? It means the market assigns a 57-in-100 chance that Miami’s official overnight low on May 16 lands between 76°F and 77°F. That is a slim majority in a market with eleven possible outcome bands.
• What does the NO contract pay out on? NO pays if Miami’s overnight low on May 16 falls in any temperature band other than 76-77°F, including cooler outcomes like 74-75°F and warmer outcomes like 78-79°F or above.
• What data release or event would move this price most? A National Weather Service forecast revision for Miami’s overnight low on May 15-16 is the single most important input. Even a one-degree shift in the NWS point forecast could reprice this market sharply.
• When does this market resolve? Resolution is set for 2026-05-16 12:00:00. The official overnight low from NOAA surface observation at Miami International Airport determines the outcome.
• Is total volume a reliable signal here? Total volume of $9,027 is very thin. With 74.8% of that trading in the last 24 hours, this price reflects concentrated activity, not broad trader consensus. A single large bet could move the probability significantly before resolution.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-15 15:13:25. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-16 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.