Miami Low Temp Hit 76°F on June 25, 2026 | Lines.com

Miami recorded a low temperature of 76°F on June 25, 2026, confirmed by the National Weather Service Miami at 12:30 AM local time. That reading landed squarely in the 76-77°F bracket, resolving this Polymarket outcome at 100%. The high for the day reached 92°F by early afternoon.

Traders opened this specific bracket at 27% implied probability. By resolution, the price had surged to 100% on a 60.7% gain in the final 24 hours. The market ended up dramatically underpriced at open, and $28,301 in total volume tells us conviction built fast once the overnight temperature signal cleared.

Miami’s June 25 Low Temperature: 76°F Confirmed

The National Weather Service Miami issued the official climatological summary for June 25, 2026, with the minimum temperature logged at 76°F at 12:30 AM EDT. That reading sat one degree below the 1991-2020 climate normal of 77°F for that calendar date. The 76°F low also outpaced the 74°F low recorded on the same date in the prior year.

The 76-77°F bracket closed at 100%, reflecting a market that reached certainty only after the temperature was effectively locked in. Prices moved in two sharp bursts on June 24 before a final 11% push on the morning of June 25, confirming the bracket as the resolution target.

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How the Market Performed on This Temperature Call

At open, the 76-77°F bracket carried a 27% implied probability. That made it a roughly one-in-four shot at the start of the measurement window. The actual outcome, a 76°F low that fell one degree below historical normal, represented an underpriced scenario relative to where sophisticated pricing would have landed it given Miami’s June baseline.

Total volume reached $28,301, a modest figure for a weather micro-market. Liquidity of $281,750 provided adequate price discovery depth, but the late-breaking price surge suggests traders were still repositioning within 24 hours of resolution. The market was a genuine coin flip early, then a near-certainty once real-time overnight data pointed toward the 76-77°F window.

• Resolution Outcome: 76-77°F bracket confirmed, Miami low temperature June 25, 2026.
• Article-Time Probability: 27% at market open for this bracket.
• Final Price at Close: 100% (1.00).
• Total Volume: $28,301.
• Market Assessment: Underpriced YES. The bracket opened at 27% and resolved at certainty.

What a 76°F Miami Low Means Going Forward

Miami’s June 25 low of 76°F landed one degree below the 30-year climate normal of 77°F for that date. That is not a dramatic departure, but it does reflect the city’s tight temperature variance in peak summer. Miami’s June overnight lows cluster in the mid-to-upper 70s with very little room for surprise in either direction, which makes narrow temperature brackets like this one inherently difficult to price at 30-day horizons.

Prediction markets on specific daily weather lows carry structural challenges. A 10-degree spread exists across possible outcomes in a given night, and the probability mass shifts sharply only as real-time data arrives. The binary bracket structure here captured the resolution cleanly, but the 27% open price underscored how poorly distributed probability was across the outcome space at the start of the window.

• Miami’s climate normal minimum for late June sits at 77°F, meaning the 76-77°F bracket historically represents the most probable single outcome cluster for this time of year.
• The 60.7% single-day price surge on June 24-25 points to traders relying heavily on same-day weather station data rather than longer-range signals to price this market.
• Future daily low markets in South Florida may benefit from tighter opening price distributions given the narrow variance of Miami’s summer overnight temperatures.
• The June 25 high of 92°F, two degrees above the 90°F climate normal, confirms the day ran slightly warmer than average overall despite the below-normal overnight low.

LINES RESOLUTION VERDICT

UNDERPRICED YES

The market correctly resolved in the 76-77°F bracket, but the 27% opening price badly undervalued what climate normals should have flagged as the highest-probability single outcome cluster for a Miami June overnight low.

What the market showed: The 76-77°F bracket opened at 27% implied probability and resolved at 100%. Given Miami’s narrow summer low temperature variance and a 77°F climate normal for this exact date, the bracket deserved a meaningfully higher opening price. Traders caught up only as real-time overnight data made the outcome visible.