Miami Low Temp June 13: Can 78-79°F Hold at 44%?

Miami’s overnight low on June 13 is a tighter call than most weather markets. The 78-79°F band holds a 44% implied probability, making it the market favorite but far from a lock. Competing bands on either side are pulling real money, and the gap between the leading outcome and the field is narrow enough to matter.

The market question asks: what will the lowest temperature in Miami be on June 13? The 78-79°F outcome sits at $0.44 YES and $0.56 NO, resolving at 12:00 UTC on June 13, 2026. Total volume stands at $3,903, with $4,004 traded in the last 24 hours, suggesting nearly all activity in this market is very recent.

How This Contract Works

Resolution depends on the observed overnight low temperature in Miami on June 13. Each temperature band is a separate binary contract. Buying YES on 78-79°F pays out if the official low falls within that two-degree window. All other bands pay zero. The resolution source is market resolution, meaning the contract settles against a defined temperature reading.

• 78-79°F (primary outcome): YES $0.44, NO $0.56, implied probability 44%
• 76-77°F: competing band drawing significant alternative interest
• 80-81°F: the next band higher, capturing above-normal risk
• 74-75°F, 72-73°F, 70-71°F, 69°F or below: cooler outcomes with low but nonzero probability
• 82-83°F, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88°F or higher: heat tail outcomes

The NO side at 56% reflects genuine spread across adjacent bands. June 13 overnight lows in Miami historically cluster between 76°F and 82°F during mid-June. A reading that lands in 76-77°F or 80-81°F instead of 78-79°F is entirely plausible, which is exactly what the 56% NO is pricing. The contract does not pay for close: it pays for the exact two-degree band.

Momentum and Market Signals

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The momentum composite here is noteworthy. The trend score sits at 49.78, price held flat in the last hour, and the 24-hour change is not available. But the price history context tells the real story: this contract opened at $0.22 and has moved sharply upward over the past two sessions, with significant gains on both June 11 and June 12. That move reflects traders converging on 78-79°F as the most likely band as the resolution date approached and forecast models sharpened.

Total volume is $3,903 and 24-hour volume is $4,004. That apparent inversion means essentially all trading activity occurred in the last 24 hours. This is a thin market. Liquidity sits at $14,842, which provides some buffer, but a single informed bet could reprice this contract sharply. At this volume level, price movement reflects a small number of traders, not a crowd.

• The 1h price change is flat at 0.0%, suggesting the market has temporarily stabilized around 44% ahead of resolution.
• The contract doubled in price from open to current, driven by forecast convergence over June 11 and June 12.
• Volume below $1M means thin liquidity: any new weather data or model update landing before 12:00 UTC on June 13 can move this price fast.
• Trader sentiment leans 44% YES to 56% NO, consistent with a competitive but not settled multi-band market.
• Open interest is $0, indicating all open positions have already been matched or the platform reports this field differently for multi-outcome markets.

Lines Analysis: What 78-79°F Needs to Win

The 78-79°F band leads because it represents Miami’s most typical mid-June overnight low. June climatology for Miami shows overnight minimums frequently settling in the upper 70s, driven by sea surface temperatures in Biscayne Bay and Biscayne Strait holding heat through the night. When the atmosphere is in a typical late spring pattern with no strong frontal passage and light onshore flow, 78-79°F is exactly where the low tends to land. The market’s jump from $0.22 to $0.44 over two days reflects forecasters and traders watching models converge on this band.

What makes the NO side real is the two-degree resolution window. Miami’s overnight low does not need an unusual weather event to land in 80-81°F or 76-77°F instead. A slightly stronger sea breeze, a passing afternoon storm leaving residual moisture aloft, or a brief dry slot can each shift the low by one or two degrees. The 76-77°F band captures the scenario where a slight dry intrusion or cleaner radiational cooling pulls the low just below 78°F. The 80-81°F band captures any retained heat from a cloud deck or elevated dewpoints.

• National Weather Service Miami forecast for overnight June 12 into June 13 is the single most important data input. Any revision toward 77°F or 80°F reprices this contract immediately.
• Dewpoint trends at Miami International Airport and Miami Beach surface stations directly indicate whether the low will hold in the 78-79°F band or slip below.
• Cloud cover after midnight is a key control: clear skies favor cooling toward 76-77°F, persistent cloud deck favors 80-81°F.
• Any frontal boundary approaching from the northwest before 06:00 UTC would be the wildcard that pulls the low below 76°F and collapses YES probability rapidly.
• Sea surface temperatures in Biscayne Bay currently support overnight lows in the upper 70s, providing a structural floor for the 78-79°F band thesis.

Total volume of $3,903 is thin. The data favors 78-79°F as the modal outcome for a normal mid-June Miami night, but the two-degree window is narrow enough that either adjacent band has a legitimate shot. The market is pricing uncertainty about which exact band captures the low, not uncertainty about whether Miami will have a typical warm night.

LINES VERDICT

MODAL OUTCOME, NARROW WINDOW

The 78-79°F band is the right band to lead in a mid-June Miami overnight market, but 44% is honest pricing for a two-degree resolution window when adjacent bands are nearly as likely.

What the market says: At 44% implied probability, this contract reflects the single most likely outcome in a competitive multi-band field. With resolution in less than 24 hours, any final forecast update or observed early-morning temperature reading will reprice this sharply.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service Miami overnight forecast update, issued close to resolution, is the single data point that would most reprice this contract. A forecast shift of one or two degrees in either direction would drain probability from 78-79°F and push it into an adjacent band.