Seattle June 13 High Temp: 82-83°F at 29%

Seattle’s weather on June 13 is a genuinely open question. The 82-83°F outcome leads the market at 29%, but that number tells you the market is spread thin across more than ten possible temperature bands. This is a distribution market, not a binary. The data doesn’t care about the politics of which bucket wins.

The market question asks: what will the highest temperature in Seattle be on June 13? The 82-83°F band currently prices at $0.29 YES versus $0.71 NO, implying a 29% probability. The market closes June 13 at 12:00 PM UTC, and total volume stands at $27,825 with $54,082 in liquidity. That liquidity figure matters here. With volume under $1M, price can move sharply on any fresh forecast data.

How the Seattle Temperature Contract Works

YES on the 82-83°F band pays out if Seattle’s official high temperature on June 13 falls between 82 and 83 degrees Fahrenheit. NO pays out if Seattle’s high lands anywhere outside that two-degree window. The resolution source is market resolution, tied to the observed high temperature reading for Seattle on that date.

• 82-83°F YES: $0.29 (29% implied probability, the leading outcome)
• 84-85°F: second-tier candidate, priced below the leader
• 80-81°F: third-tier, capturing cooler-than-expected scenarios
• 86°F or higher: low-probability heat spike scenario
• 76°F and below: distributed across multiple cool-day bands

The NO position wins across every temperature band except 82-83°F. For NO to pay at 71%, the high temperature needs to land in any other window. Given Seattle’s mid-June variability and the spread across ten-plus bands, NO has strong structural support simply because the distribution is wide. The weather doesn’t care which bucket you picked.

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Momentum and Market Signals in a Thin-Volume Market

The momentum composite is nearly flat. The 1-hour price change on the 82-83°F band registers 0.0%, and the trend score sits at 51.42, right at neutral. Price history shows whipsaw movement on June 12, with multiple swings of 7-9% within a single day. That kind of intraday volatility on thin volume signals traders reacting to forecast model updates, not fundamental shifts in the data.

Total volume of $27,825, with all $27,825 trading in the last 24 hours, confirms this market opened and traded almost entirely on June 12. Liquidity at $54,082 is thin. A single large bet or a forecast update from the National Weather Service can move this price meaningfully before resolution. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: this is a market pricing forecast uncertainty, not a locked-in outcome.

• The 1-hour change of 0.0% and trend score near 51 signal no directional conviction as of June 12 at 18:13 UTC.
• Intraday swings of 7-9% on June 12 reflect real-time forecast model sensitivity, not trader noise.
• Volume under $1M means price is susceptible to sharp movement on any new NWS Seattle forecast update.
• The 82-83°F band leads but holds only 29%, leaving 71% probability distributed across other outcomes.
• Liquidity of $54,082 is sufficient to absorb moderate bets but not large institutional positions.

Lines Analysis: Seattle Forecast and the June Heat Window

Mid-June Seattle temperature patterns favor warm but not extreme conditions. The Pacific Northwest’s marine influence typically keeps June highs in the mid-to-upper 70s through the low 80s during normal years. The 82-83°F band sits at the upper end of climatological norms, which explains its lead position. The National Weather Service Seattle office issues updated forecasts that directly drive this market’s price action. A forecast showing a high in the 82-83°F range pushed this band to its current 29% price.

The scenario that makes NO the winner is simply the weather landing anywhere other than that two-degree band. A marine push dropping the high to 78-79°F, or an inland flow pushing it to 84-85°F or higher, both resolve NO. Seattle’s June weather is notoriously sensitive to the position of the Pacific High pressure system. A modest shift in that system on June 12 or early June 13 can move the actual high by four to six degrees. That uncertainty is exactly why the distribution is so flat across bands.

• NWS Seattle hourly forecast updates before resolution will reprice every band in this market simultaneously.
• A Marine Layer Advisory or any onshore flow signal from NOAA would push probability toward the 76-79°F range.
• Inland or offshore flow strengthening would shift probability toward the 84-85°F and above bands.
• The resolution closes at 12:00 PM UTC (5:00 AM Pacific), meaning only early morning Seattle conditions factor in, not the afternoon peak.
• No whale trades have positioned this market, so price reflects retail forecast-chasing rather than informed large capital.

The $27,825 in total volume reflects a market that is entirely about the next 18 hours of forecast data. The 82-83°F band has the most money behind it, but 29% is not conviction. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science. Any NWS model run showing a clear directional shift will collapse the distribution toward one or two bands.

LINES VERDICT

OUTCOME UNCERTAIN ACROSS MULTIPLE BANDS

The 82-83°F band leads on thin evidence. Seattle’s June forecast sensitivity and the wide distribution across bands means no outcome commands real conviction here.

What the market says: At 29% implied probability, the market is telling you the leading outcome wins less than one time in three. With resolution on June 13 and thin liquidity, this price will shift sharply on the next NWS Seattle forecast update.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service Seattle hourly forecast before 12:00 PM UTC on June 13 is the single data point that will reprice every band in this market. Any marine layer development overnight changes the distribution entirely.

Scientific Context: Seattle June Temperature Patterns

Seattle’s historical June average high sits near 70-72°F, with upper-tail days reaching the low-to-mid 80s during inland flow events. The 82-83°F band represents a warm but not anomalous day by recent Pacific Northwest standards. The region’s documented warming trend has shifted the upper-tail distribution warmer since 2000, making the 80s more attainable in June than historical baselines suggest. The related market tracking where 2026 ranks among the hottest years on record currently prices at 64%, consistent with a background warming signal that supports the upper temperature bands in Seattle this week. Events that would move this price before resolution include any significant model forecast shift for Seattle issued in the next 12 hours, or surface observation data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport confirming actual high temperature readings on June 13.

What is the 29% probability actually measuring?

The 29% figure means the market assigns roughly a one-in-three chance that Seattle’s June 13 high lands specifically in the 82-83°F range. It does not mean the outcome is unlikely to be warm. It means the probability is spread across many two-degree bands.

What does it take for the 82-83°F band to lose?

The Seattle high temperature needs to land outside the 82-83°F window entirely. Any reading at 84°F or above, or 81°F or below, resolves this band as NO and pays out NO holders at $0.71.

What data would reprice this market most sharply?

An updated NWS Seattle point forecast showing a clear high temperature prediction would collapse probability toward the matching band. This market is entirely forecast-driven in the hours before resolution.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution closes June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC, which is 5:00 AM Pacific Time. The observed high temperature for Seattle on June 13 determines the winning band.

Is the volume reliable enough to trust this price?

Total volume is $27,825, all traded in the last 24 hours. At this level, price is thin and reactive. A single $5,000 bet can move the leading band by several percentage points. Treat the current price as directional, not precise.