Miami Lowest Temp April 29: Will 74-75°F Hit?

Miami’s overnight low on April 29 is shaping up as one of the tighter hyperlocal weather calls on Polymarket right now. The 74-75°F band carries a 61.5% implied probability, and that number jumped hard in the last 24 hours. A 32.5% single-day price move on a temperature contract is not noise. Something in the forecast data shifted, and traders noticed.

Total volume sits at $3,751, with $1,942 of that trading in the last 24 hours alone. This is a thin market. Liquidity at $2,864 means a modestly sized position can move the price materially. The momentum composite, combining a flat 1-hour change, a 32.5% 24-hour surge, and a trend score of 59.79, points to a single directional conviction event rather than a gradual drift. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, but the weather models appear to be narrowing.

How the Lowest Temperature Contract Works for April 29 in Miami

This contract resolves based on the verified lowest temperature recorded in Miami on April 29, 2026, before the 12:00:00 resolution deadline. The question is which two-degree Fahrenheit band that low falls into. Eleven bands are listed, from 67°F or below up to 86°F or higher. Each band is a separate market. The 74-75°F band is the current leader.

• YES (74-75°F low): 0.62 price, 61.5% implied probability. Pays out if Miami’s verified overnight low on April 29 falls between 74°F and 75°F inclusive.
• NO: 0.39 price, 38.5% implied probability. Pays out if Miami’s low lands outside that specific two-degree window.

The NO side here has a structural edge that is easy to underweight. Miami’s low on any given late-April night can land across a wide range. The 70-71°F, 72-73°F, and 76-77°F bands each represent plausible alternatives. A forecast shift of two or three degrees redistributes probability quickly across multiple bands. Missing 74-75°F does not require an unusual weather event. It just requires landing one notch higher or lower on a continuous temperature scale.

Sponsored Partner

Momentum and Market Signals: One Day Moved This Contract

The combined momentum signal is sharp and directional. The 32.5% 24-hour price gain, a flat 1-hour hold, and a trend score near 60 all suggest a single catalyst. The most likely driver is updated National Weather Service model output for South Florida on April 28 and 29. NWS Miami issues short-range forecast discussions that are closely watched for overnight low projections in the metropolitan area. When those discussions converge on a specific temperature range, hyperlocal prediction markets respond.

Volume at $3,751 total and $1,942 in 24 hours is well below the $1 million threshold that signals deep liquidity. This market is small. A single large trade can reprice the contract by several percentage points. The $2,864 in order book depth is the key constraint. Traders watching this contract should treat the current 61.5% as a weather-model-dependent probability, not a settled consensus.

Key Factors

• The 1-hour price change held flat at 0.0%, suggesting the 24-hour surge has stabilized near current levels rather than continuing to accelerate.
• The 32.5% single-session gain from approximately 0.46 to 0.62 is consistent with a model run or NWS forecast discussion pointing toward the 74-75°F range.
• Thin liquidity at $2,864 means this price is fragile. A NWS forecast revision toward 72-73°F or 76-77°F could reprice this contract quickly.
• The 30-day low of 0.23 versus the current 0.62 shows the market has more than doubled in conviction over the contract’s life.
• Resolution deadline is 2026-04-29 12:00:00, which means overnight and early morning temperature data is what settles this market.

Lines Analysis: Miami’s Late-April Overnight Pattern

Miami’s late-April climate history supports the 73-76°F range as a reasonable overnight low window. The National Weather Service Miami office tracks mean overnight lows for late April across Miami-Dade County in the upper 60s to mid-70s depending on onshore flow, cloud cover, and marine layer depth. The 74-75°F band sits in the upper end of the climatological norm, which means a warmer-than-average overnight pattern would be required for YES to resolve. Current April 2026 temperatures in South Florida have been running above historical averages, consistent with the broader national temperature pattern. That context supports the 61.5% lean.

What makes NO real is precision. The contract does not ask whether Miami’s low is warm. It asks whether that low lands in a specific two-degree slice. The 72-73°F band and the 76-77°F band each carry meaningful probability. A cloud deck that breaks earlier than forecast drops the low into 72-73°F territory. A persistent southerly flow holds the low at 76-77°F. The NWS Miami morning forecast discussion on April 28 and early April 29 will be the sharpest signal available before resolution.

Signals to Monitor

• NWS Miami short-range forecast discussions for overnight April 28-29: any mention of southerly flow or marine influence pushes toward 76-77°F and pressures YES.
• GFS and NAM model agreement on Miami overnight low for April 29: convergence near 74-75°F strengthens the current price; divergence reopens adjacent bands.
• Cloud cover and dewpoint forecasts for Miami-Dade County: high dewpoints above 70°F support warmer lows, while drier air allows more radiational cooling toward 72-73°F.
• Any tropical moisture or disturbance activity in the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean: these systems elevate overnight lows by increasing cloud cover and onshore flow.
• Early April 29 ASOS station readings from Miami International Airport: the first automated surface observation after midnight will confirm whether the overnight low is tracking toward 74-75°F or drifting to an adjacent band.

The $3,751 in total volume tells you this is a niche market with a specific trader base. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: South Florida’s late-April overnight lows cluster in a predictable range, and the current forecast appears to be pointing at the upper end of that range. The 61.5% probability is defensible given the model signal. But thin liquidity means this price will move on any forecast revision before the April 29 12:00:00 deadline. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and weather doesn’t care about trader conviction.

LINES VERDICT

Narrow Band, Model-Dependent Call

The 74-75°F band has earned its lead, driven by a clear 24-hour model signal and late-April climatology in Miami. The precision required for resolution is the honest risk here.

What the market says: 61.5% implies slightly better than even odds that Miami’s April 29 low lands in this specific two-degree window. The 32.5% single-day surge shows fresh conviction, but thin liquidity at $2,864 means this probability is one forecast revision away from repricing heading into the April 29 12:00:00 close.

Key unknown: The NWS Miami overnight forecast discussion for April 28-29 is the single data point that will either confirm or undercut the current price. Any model shift toward 72-73°F or 76-77°F redistributes probability out of this band immediately.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 61.5% probability mean for this contract? It means traders currently believe there is roughly a 61.5% chance Miami’s verified lowest temperature on April 29 falls between 74°F and 75°F. That probability shifts as NWS forecast model runs update before the 12:00:00 resolution deadline.
• How does the NO side pay out? The NO contract at 0.39 pays out if Miami’s April 29 low lands in any band other than 74-75°F. Given eleven total bands, the NO side benefits from any forecast deviation into an adjacent range like 72-73°F or 76-77°F.
• What data event would move this price most? An updated NWS Miami short-range forecast discussion pointing toward a different overnight low band would be the most direct price mover. GFS or NAM model output revisions on April 28 carry the same weight.
• When does this market resolve? Resolution is set for 2026-04-29 12:00:00. The overnight and early morning low temperature recorded in Miami on April 29 determines the outcome.
• Is $3,751 in volume enough to trust this price? Volume this thin means the 61.5% probability can shift sharply on a single trade or forecast update. This market lacks the depth of high-volume contracts. Treat the current price as a directional signal, not a stable consensus.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-04-28 08:12:07. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-04-29 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.