Wellington Hit 11°C on July 12, 2026 | Lines.com

Wellington’s highest temperature on July 12, 2026 reached exactly 11°C, resolving the Polymarket prediction market for that outcome at full confidence. The city recorded its midwinter daily maximum within a degree of the July climatological average, confirming what late-breaking trader conviction had already priced in by resolution at 12:00 PM local time.

The market closed at 100% probability for 11°C. That final price stood sharply above the opening price of 50%, which reflected genuine early uncertainty across a 10-outcome range spanning 5°C to 15°C or higher. Total volume reached $68,701, with $47,945 trading in the final 24 hours alone. The late surge in volume signals traders converged decisively once real-time weather data narrowed the plausible range.

Wellington’s July 12 Maximum Temperature Confirmed at 11°C

Wellington’s official maximum temperature for July 12, 2026 landed at 11°C. That figure sits inside the typical midwinter daily high range for the New Zealand capital, where July averages around 11.6°C. The 11°C outcome beat out nine other discrete temperature bins, from 5°C or below up to 15°C or higher, each of which expired worthless at resolution.

At market open, the 11°C contract traded at $0.50, reflecting flat uncertainty. By July 11, the contract dipped as low as 42% before weather signals clarified the picture. A sharp 20.5% intraday recovery on July 11 preceded a further 6.2% gain before the final push to 100% at resolution. Traders who held through the dip captured the full payout.

Sponsored Partner

How the Market Performed Against the Outcome

The 11°C contract opened at an implied probability of 50%. That was a reasonable starting point for a 10-outcome discrete market with no strong early signal. The final price of 100% accurately reflected the confirmed result, and the market’s trajectory from 50% to 100% shows price discovery did its job once observational data came in.

Total volume of $68,701 and liquidity of $249,989 gave this market enough depth to absorb the late-stage conviction without distortion. The $47,945 in 24-hour volume represents 70% of all trading occurring in the market’s final day. That pattern is typical for short-window weather markets, where information value concentrates near resolution.

• Resolution Outcome: 11°C confirmed as Wellington’s July 12, 2026 daily maximum.
• Article-Time Probability: 100% (at resolution).
• Final Price at Close: 1.00 (100%).
• Total Volume: $68,701.
• Market Assessment: Correctly priced at close, after opening as a genuine coin flip at 50%.

What 11°C Means for Wellington and These Markets Going Forward

Wellington in July consistently sits in a narrow temperature corridor driven by Southern Ocean airflow and the Cook Strait’s moderating influence. An 11°C maximum is unremarkable meteorologically, but the market’s journey from 50% to 100% is instructive. Short-window discrete weather markets require traders to integrate real-time forecasts quickly. Those who tracked MetService Wellington updates had a clear informational edge.

The 10-outcome discrete structure works well for this type of market. Each 1°C bin creates a precise resolution mechanism with no ambiguity at settlement. The risk is diffusion: with 10 outcomes, early pricing is inherently flat. The market corrected efficiently once the signal arrived, which is what healthy price discovery looks like.

• Wellington’s July average maximum of 11.6°C means the 11°C and 12°C bins will likely dominate volume in future July markets. Traders should weight those two outcomes heavier at open.
• The $47,945 in final-day volume confirms that weather market alpha concentrates in the 24 hours before resolution. Early positions carry more directional risk.
• MetService Wellington forecasts issued 12 to 24 hours before resolution proved highly reliable in this case. Tracking those updates directly is the clearest signal available.
• Correlation data shows this market trades alongside other weather and natural-event markets. A broader weather-market portfolio may help smooth single-event variance.

LINES RESOLUTION VERDICT

CORRECTLY PRICED AT CLOSE

The 11°C outcome resolved as confirmed, and the market reached 100% before the deadline, demonstrating that short-window weather markets can achieve accurate terminal pricing even after significant mid-session uncertainty.

What the market showed: The 11°C contract opened at 50% implied probability and closed at 100% at resolution. After a dip to roughly 42% on July 11, traders reversed course as MetService data clarified the forecast, producing a clean convergence to the correct outcome.