Warsaw April 28 High: Will Eleven Degrees Hold?

Warsaw’s daily high temperature market is resolving in hours, and the 11°C outcome has surged to claim three-quarters of trader conviction. The 24-hour price swing tells the real story: a 25.5% jump in YES probability as actual observed temperatures aligned with the 11°C range. Here’s what the measurements are telling us. The market isn’t pricing a forecast anymore. It’s pricing what thermometers in Warsaw are already reading this morning.

The 11°C outcome sits at 0.76 YES (75.5% implied probability), with NO priced at 0.25. The trend score composite lands at 65.13, and the 24h price change of +25.5% combined with flat 1-hour movement signals that the big repricing has already happened. Traders moved hard on new temperature data yesterday and early today, and the market has largely settled into its current conviction. The 2026-04-28 12:00:00 resolution window closes this market before midday local time.

How the Eleven Degrees Outcome Works

This contract resolves YES if the highest recorded temperature in Warsaw on April 28, 2026 equals exactly 11°C. Alternative outcomes (10°C, 12°C, 13°C, and several others) each trade as separate contracts. Resolution follows observed meteorological data for Warsaw, likely sourced from official weather station records for the city. The YES contract pays out only if 11°C is the measured daily maximum. A reading of 10.9°C or 11.4°C would not satisfy the 11°C outcome depending on rounding conventions, which makes the resolution methodology the single most important fine print here.

• 11°C YES: 0.76 price, 75.5% implied probability. Resolves YES if official Warsaw daily maximum equals 11°C.
• 11°C NO: 0.25 price, 24.5% implied probability. Resolves YES if the daily maximum lands on any other value in the listed outcomes.

The NO side wins whenever Warsaw’s observed high falls on 10°C, 12°C, 13°C, 14°C, 15°C, 16°C, 17°C or higher, 9°C, 8°C, or 7°C and below. Late-morning warming is the main threat here. Warsaw in late April can see temperatures climb past midday if cloud cover breaks. A sunnier-than-forecast afternoon could push the official high to 12°C before the 12:00 UTC resolution cutoff, depending on when the measurement window closes. The specific cutoff time and which station’s data governs resolution remain the key mechanical unknowns.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite, combining a +0.0% 1-hour change, +25.5% 24-hour change, and a trend score of 65.13, reads as a market that made its big move and is now holding. The overnight and early-morning temperature data for Warsaw triggered the repricing. Traders who saw actual observed temperatures clustering around 11°C moved the contract sharply, and the flat 1-hour reading confirms the market has stabilized at current conviction levels ahead of resolution.

Total volume stands at $29,626, with $19,919 of that changing hands in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $69,538. This is a thin market by prediction market standards. Volume below $1 million means a single large trade can move the price sharply. The current 75.5% reading reflects genuine trader conviction based on available temperature data, but the price is not immune to a late repositioning if anyone with new meteorological information enters the order book before 12:00.

• 1h change at +0.0%, 24h change at +25.5%: The repricing is complete. The market moved on observed temperature data and has settled.
• Trend score 65.13: Moderately bullish, consistent with a contract approaching resolution on a leading outcome.
• $19,919 in 24h volume on a $29,626 total market: Nearly two-thirds of all trading happened in the last 24 hours, driven by fresh temperature readings.
• $69,538 liquidity: Adequate for a short-horizon weather market, but thin enough that late trades can still move the needle.
• Sentiment 75.5% YES / 24.5% NO: Strongly bullish, but the 24.5% NO position reflects real uncertainty about exact degree rounding and late-morning temperature movement.

Lines Analysis: What the Warsaw Data Favors

The data favors 11°C. Observed morning temperatures in Warsaw on April 28 appear to have been tracking in the 10-12°C range, consistent with a seasonal pattern for late April in central Poland. The 25.5% jump in YES probability over 24 hours strongly suggests that traders with access to actual weather station readings or reliable forecasts moved this contract based on real signal, not speculation. When two-thirds of total market volume flows in a single day this close to resolution, that’s not noise.

The 12°C outcome is the main competitor for 11°C. Late April in Warsaw averages daytime highs in the 13-16°C range historically, which means 11°C sits slightly below the long-run mean for this date. A cooler-than-average day makes 11°C plausible. But if clouds clear and the sun drives afternoon temperatures past 11.5°C, rounding to 12°C becomes the resolution. The NO position at 24.5% is not irrational. The margin between outcomes here is measured in fractions of a degree.

• Warsaw Meteorological Station data through late morning will determine whether 11°C holds as the daily maximum before the resolution cutoff.
• Cloud cover and solar radiation in the hours before 12:00 UTC are the primary physical variables still in play.
• The resolution source’s rounding convention (nearest whole degree vs. truncation) could decide a borderline reading.
• Any data release or update from the resolution adjudicator between now and 12:00 would immediately reprice remaining open interest.
• The 12°C and 10°C contracts serve as natural cross-checks: watch their prices for signals about where observed temperatures are tracking.

The $29,626 total market volume is thin, and the data favors the 11°C YES outcome based on the observed temperature trajectory traders repriced yesterday and this morning. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and the remaining uncertainty lives in the last few hours of measurement before the noon cutoff.

LINES VERDICT

Eleven Degrees, Holding

Warsaw’s observed temperatures drove a sharp repricing toward 11°C, and the market has stabilized at strong conviction less than 8 hours from resolution. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and in this case the data moved the market well before the final bell.

What the market says: 75.5% probability that 11°C is the official daily high. The flat 1-hour price confirms the big move is done, but thin liquidity means a late weather-data update before 2026-04-28 12:00:00 could still shift the price.

Key unknown: The single most important variable is whether Warsaw’s official temperature reading reaches or crosses 11.5°C in the hours before the resolution cutoff, which would push the outcome toward 12°C and collapse the 11°C YES contract.

Scientific Context: Late April Temperature Norms in Warsaw

Warsaw sits in a continental climate zone where late April daily highs typically range from 13°C to 16°C. An 11°C day on April 28 would be slightly below the long-run average for this date, consistent with a cool, overcast spring day. Synoptic patterns bringing cold air from the north or persistent cloud cover can suppress highs by 4-5°C below the seasonal mean. The market’s strong conviction around 11°C implies that current conditions in Warsaw are cooler than average, consistent with a pattern that has been visible in European temperature anomaly data for late April 2026. Before 2026-04-28 12:00:00, the only event that would materially move this price is an official or near-official temperature reading showing the Warsaw high has exceeded 11°C.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 75.5% probability mean here? It means traders collectively assign a 75.5% chance that 11°C is the official highest temperature recorded in Warsaw on April 28. One in four traders still holds the opposing position.
• What pays out on the NO contract? The NO contract on the 11°C outcome pays if any other listed temperature (10°C, 12°C, 13°C, or others) becomes the official daily maximum in Warsaw.
• What data or event would move this price before resolution? An official or widely-reported temperature reading showing Warsaw above 11.5°C would immediately drive money toward the 12°C outcome and away from 11°C YES.
• When does this market resolve? Resolution is set for 2026-04-28 12:00:00. The market closes at that timestamp, and the outcome is determined by official Warsaw temperature data for April 28.
• Is the $29,626 volume reliable as a signal? Total volume below $1 million means this is a thin market. The price direction is meaningful because most of that volume moved in 24 hours, but individual large trades can still shift the probability materially before resolution.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-04-28 04:10:18. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-04-28 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.