Tel Aviv May 31 Temperature: Will 28°C Hold?

Tel Aviv’s temperature market for May 31 has moved fast. The 28°C outcome opened at 29 cents and now sits at 87 cents, a swing driven by real-time weather data converging on a single number. The market has essentially called this one. At 87% implied probability, traders are not pricing uncertainty so much as a near-confirmed meteorological outcome.

The market question asks: what will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be on May 31? The 28°C outcome trades at $0.87 YES and $0.13 NO. This market closes at noon on May 31, 2026. Total volume stands at $24,743, with $17,062 of that moving in the last 24 hours alone.

How the 28°C Contract Works

A YES resolution requires official temperature monitoring to record a daily maximum of exactly 28°C in Tel Aviv on May 31. The full outcome ladder runs from 22°C or below up through 32°C or higher. Each outcome is mutually exclusive. Only one pays out.

• YES ($0.87, 87% implied probability): Tel Aviv hits a daily high of exactly 28°C on May 31.
• NO ($0.13, 13% implied probability): The daily high lands at any other temperature on the ladder, from 27°C down or 29°C up.

Thirteen cents on NO covers a spread of outcomes across nine other rungs. That diluted probability matters. Missing 28°C means the high lands somewhere else, not that conditions are inherently hostile to warm temperatures. A reading of 29°C or 27°C would both resolve NO, even if the day is warm. The adjacent outcomes on the ladder, particularly 29°C and 27°C, are the real threat to YES.

Sponsored Partner

Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is striking. A 34% jump in the last hour and a 44.5% gain over 24 hours, combined with a trend score of 69.23, point to a single driver: real-time weather data confirming a 28°C peak. This kind of intraday surge on a same-day resolution market means information arrived and traders acted immediately.

Total volume of $24,743 is thin by prediction market standards. The $17,062 in 24-hour volume represents nearly 70% of all trading concentrated in the resolution window. Liquidity at $51,805 is solid relative to volume, meaning order book depth is sufficient to handle further trading without severe price distortion. But at this volume level, a single large opposing bet could still nudge the price noticeably before noon.

• The 1h and 24h momentum surge connects directly to same-day weather station data becoming available for Tel Aviv.
• At 87% probability, the market is treating this as near-settled but leaving 13% for measurement or adjacent-outcome risk.
• Liquidity exceeds volume, a healthy signal for a short-duration contract in its final hours.
• The 29°C and 27°C outcomes represent the most credible alternative destinations if 28°C slips.
• Volume below $1M means any surprise data point or late correction could move this price sharply before close.

Lines Analysis: Tel Aviv’s Temperature Ladder

The case for 28°C holding is built on real-time convergence. Weather station data for Tel Aviv on May 31 points toward a maximum in the 28°C range. Tel Aviv in late May typically sees highs between 26°C and 30°C, with sea breeze modulation keeping afternoons from running hot unless a hamsin (dry eastern wind) pattern is active. The market is pricing a sea-breeze-moderated day, not a heat surge.

The 13% NO probability is not random noise. The adjacent rungs matter. A 29°C outcome would require only a one-degree upward deviation, which is within normal measurement variance and afternoon warming trajectories. A 27°C outcome is plausible if coastal cloud cover or stronger marine influence arrives earlier than forecast. The time remaining before noon close is short, but morning hours in Tel Aviv can still see meaningful temperature movement before the daily peak is reached.

• Israel Meteorological Service data and local weather station readings before noon will confirm or shift the outcome.
• Any hamsin-related warming pushing temperatures to 29°C or above would reprice this market sharply downward.
• Coastal marine influence arriving early could pull the peak toward 27°C and invalidate 28°C.
• The noon close limits remaining uncertainty window significantly.
• Adjacent outcomes at 27°C and 29°C are the primary monitors to watch, not the extreme ends of the ladder.

Total volume of $24,743 is modest. The data currently favors 28°C. The 13% NO probability reflects measurement precision risk and adjacent-outcome exposure rather than any fundamental disagreement with the direction of the day’s temperature.

LINES VERDICT

NEAR-CONFIRMED

Real-time weather data for Tel Aviv on May 31 has converged on 28°C with enough force to drive this contract from 29 cents to 87 cents in a single trading day. The market is not pricing uncertainty about whether it will be warm. It is pricing single-degree precision on a measurement outcome.

What the market says: At 87% implied probability, the market has priced 28°C as the near-certain outcome. The remaining 13% reflects measurement precision risk and the very real possibility that the peak settles one degree higher or lower. With the noon close approaching, volatility from here is more likely on a surprise data update than a fundamental shift in conditions.

Key unknown: The final temperature reading from Tel Aviv weather stations before the noon resolution deadline is the only thing that matters now. A peak of 27°C or 29°C would reprice this contract to near zero in minutes.