Singapore May 9 Temperature: Will 31°C Hold?

Singapore’s weather on May 9 has become a prediction market flashpoint. The 31°C outcome is priced at 83%, and the momentum behind that number is striking. A combined signal of a 33.5% one-hour move, a 43% gain over 24 hours, and a trend score of 86.88 points to a sharp repricing event, most likely triggered by updated weather model data or a firm forecast from the Meteorological Service Singapore. The market has moved hard and fast toward one outcome.

The contract resolves at 2026-05-09 12:00:00. That is less than 13 hours away. At 83% implied probability, the market is telling you that traders believe Singapore’s highest temperature on May 9 will land squarely at 31°C, not a degree higher or lower. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: this is a tight, time-sensitive bet on a single Celsius reading in one of the world’s most consistently warm cities.

How the 31°C Contract Works

The market asks a precise question: what will the highest recorded temperature in Singapore be on May 9, 2026? The YES contract pays out if the Meteorological Service Singapore records a daily maximum of exactly 31°C. Resolution is at 12:00:00 on May 9. Traders can also hold positions on 32°C, 30°C, 33°C, 34°C, 35°C or higher, 29°C, and lower bands.

• 31°C (YES): Price 0.83, implied probability 83%.
• 32°C: Lower probability alternative, priced separately.
• 30°C: Adjacent outcome, capturing overshoot risk to the downside.
• 33°C or higher: Outlier bands, priced well below 31°C.
• 29°C or below: Captures significant cooling scenario, low probability.

The 30°C and 32°C outcomes are the real competition here. Singapore’s Meteorological Service Singapore measures daily maximum temperature at Changi, the island’s primary observational station. A reading of 30°C resolves this contract NO. So does 32°C. Traders holding the 31°C contract need the thermometer to land on a single degree band, which is a tighter call than it sounds when equatorial convection is in play. Singapore’s daily maximum can shift by a full degree based on afternoon cloud cover, sea breeze timing, or an early convective shower.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The combined momentum signal here is unusually sharp for a weather market. A 33.5% one-hour move, a 43% gain over 24 hours, and a trend score of 86.88 together indicate a decisive repricing, not gradual drift. The most likely driver is a high-confidence short-range forecast from the Meteorological Service Singapore or updated numerical weather prediction model output pointing to a 31°C maximum. Weather markets at this time horizon respond fast to forecast data.

Total volume is $46,214, with $38,561 traded in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $444,141. Volume below $1 million means this market can reprice sharply on a single new data point, a fresh forecast, or an early-morning temperature reading from Changi. The 24-hour volume spike confirms that capital entered this market specifically around the momentum event, not as slow accumulation.

• The 1-hour price change of +33.5%, the 24-hour change of +43.0%, and the trend score of 86.88 form a single directional signal pointing strongly toward 31°C as the consensus outcome.
• Total volume of $46,214 with $38,561 in the last 24 hours indicates concentrated, event-driven activity rather than broad market participation.
• Liquidity of $444,141 is healthy relative to volume, meaning the order book can absorb movement without extreme slippage.
• With resolution in under 13 hours, price will track actual Singapore weather conditions in near real time.
• The 30-day price low of 0.23 versus the current 0.83 illustrates how dramatically trader conviction shifted as the date approached.

Lines Analysis: Singapore Weather and the 31°C Case

Singapore’s May climate supports the 31°C thesis. The Meteorological Service Singapore reports that May is one of the island’s hottest months, with mean daily maximums typically ranging from 31°C to 32°C at Changi. An 83% probability on 31°C reflects the climatological reality that this band captures the modal outcome for a May afternoon in Singapore. The data doesn’t care about the politics: this is a straightforward temperature distribution question.

What makes the NO case real is degree-band risk. Singapore’s equatorial weather is highly variable on sub-daily timescales. A convective rain event before 12:00 on May 9 could suppress the maximum to 30°C. A clear morning with strong solar insolation could push it to 32°C. The Meteorological Service Singapore’s Changi station is the resolution benchmark, and that station’s readings are influenced by local sea breeze onset, which typically arrives in the early afternoon. If the sea breeze arrives before temperatures peak, 30°C becomes a realistic outcome. If it delays, 32°C or 33°C edges into play.

• Meteorological Service Singapore forecast data for May 9 is the primary signal. Any update showing 31°C as the expected maximum directly supports current pricing.
• Early-morning Changi temperature readings on May 9 will indicate whether the day is tracking hot or cool relative to the May mean.
• Convective activity or rainfall alerts from the Meteorological Service Singapore before noon on May 9 would be a bearish signal for the 31°C outcome.
• Regional sea surface temperatures in the Singapore Strait, currently elevated due to the broader Indo-Pacific warm pool, support above-average daily maximums.
• Any ASEAN haze event or smoke intrusion from Sumatra could influence cloud cover and suppress the maximum below 31°C.

At $46,214 in total volume, the market is pricing one specific degree band with high conviction. The data flow in the next 12 hours, particularly the Meteorological Service Singapore’s morning forecast update, will either confirm or disrupt the 83% consensus.

LINES VERDICT

Consensus Holds Pending Morning Forecast

The momentum composite and the climatological baseline both point toward 31°C as the most likely Singapore maximum on May 9. The market has priced this with conviction, but the resolution window is tight and equatorial weather can shift within hours.

What the market says: An 83% implied probability means traders are highly confident in the 31°C outcome, but with volume under $1 million, a fresh Meteorological Service Singapore forecast or an early Changi temperature reading could reprice this contract sharply before the 2026-05-09 12:00:00 resolution.

Key unknown: The single most important data point is the Meteorological Service Singapore’s May 9 morning forecast update for Changi. A confirmed 31°C maximum forecast locks in the consensus. A convective rain alert or a forecast shift to 30°C or 32°C would move this market significantly before noon.

Singapore Climate Context

Singapore sits one degree north of the equator. The Meteorological Service Singapore records daily temperatures at Changi, the primary synoptic station. May falls in the inter-monsoon period, when light and variable winds allow maximum solar heating without the suppression of the northeast or southwest monsoon cloud bands. Mean daily maximums in May at Changi cluster between 31°C and 32°C, which is why the 31°C outcome commands the highest probability across all outcome bands. The market is pricing the climatological mode, not an outlier. Historical May data from the Meteorological Service Singapore shows that 31°C and 32°C together account for the majority of daily maximum readings during this month. The 83% probability on a single degree band is aggressive given that distribution, which is why the 30°C and 32°C alternatives still carry real value for traders watching the morning forecast closely.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 83% probability mean for this contract? The Polymarket price of 0.83 implies traders believe there is an 83% chance the Meteorological Service Singapore records exactly 31°C as the May 9 daily maximum at Changi. It is not a guarantee.
• How does the NO outcome pay? Any daily maximum other than 31°C at the resolution benchmark station resolves this specific contract as NO. Traders holding 30°C or 32°C contracts benefit if the reading misses 31°C.
• What data release would move this price most? The Meteorological Service Singapore’s morning forecast update for May 9, or an early Changi temperature observation above or below the 31°C band, would reprice this contract before the noon resolution.
• When does this contract resolve? Resolution is at 2026-05-09 12:00:00. The Meteorological Service Singapore’s official daily maximum for May 9 at Changi determines the outcome.
• Is the volume reliable? Total volume of $46,214 is below $1 million. Liquidity of $444,141 supports the order book, but thin volume means a single large trade or a new forecast can move the price sharply before resolution.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-08 23:10:28. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-09 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.