Singapore June 15 High Temp: Will It Hit 31C?

Singapore’s weather station is about to close the book on this contract. The market has already priced this as settled, with the 31°C outcome trading at 98.7% probability on June 15. That near-certainty arrived fast: the contract opened at 36% and climbed more than 55% in the past 24 hours as actual temperature readings came in.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature in Singapore on June 15? The 31°C outcome is priced at $0.99 YES and $0.01 NO. The contract resolves at noon Singapore time on June 15, 2026. Total volume stands at $42,794, with $37,802 of that trading in the last 24 hours alone.

How the 31°C Contract Works

A YES payout requires Singapore’s official high temperature on June 15 to land at exactly 31°C, not 30°C, not 32°C. The market resolves against official meteorological data for Singapore. Resolution is set for June 15, 2026 at noon local time.

• YES ($0.99): Singapore’s June 15 daily high records exactly 31°C.
• NO ($0.01): Singapore’s June 15 daily high records any other temperature, including 30°C, 32°C, 33°C, 34°C, 35°C or higher, or any value at 29°C and below.

The NO side pays out if the temperature overshoots or undershoots 31°C. Singapore’s June average highs cluster between 31°C and 33°C, and afternoon convective activity can push readings a degree higher than forecast. A localized thunderstorm cooling the afternoon could also pull the reading to 30°C. Both scenarios are real, even if the market assigns them only a 1.3% combined chance right now.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is as strong as these markets get. The 1-hour change of +20.7%, the 24-hour surge of +55.2%, and a trend score of 87.41 are all pointing the same direction. That kind of movement in the final hours of a daily temperature market means one thing: actual weather data has come in and confirmed the reading. The market is not speculating on tomorrow. It is repricing around what the thermometer has already recorded.

Total volume reached $42,794, with $37,802 trading in the past 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $116,832, which is unusually deep for a daily temperature contract of this size. That liquidity depth matters: it means the 98.7% price is not a thin-book artifact. Real capital is sitting behind it. Volume below $1M is worth flagging as a general rule, and this market is well under that threshold, but the liquidity-to-volume ratio here is high, which supports the price signal rather than undermining it.

Key Factors

• The 1-hour price change of +20.7% combined with the 24-hour change of +55.2% signals same-day weather confirmation, not speculative positioning.
• Singapore’s June climatology puts daily highs between 31°C and 33°C, making 31°C the low end of the typical range.
• The trend score of 87.41 places this among the highest-conviction short-duration contracts on the board.
• Liquidity of $116,832 against $42,794 total volume indicates a well-supported book, not a thin-market mirage.
• The contract resolves at noon Singapore time, which means the window for a temperature surprise is nearly closed.

Lines Analysis: Singapore Temperature on June Fifteen

Singapore’s climate is one of the most predictable in the world for daily temperature ranges. The island sits one degree north of the equator, and June is firmly in the inter-monsoon period. Daily highs at this time of year almost always land between 31°C and 33°C. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and here the data is about as boring as it gets: equatorial maritime climate, consistent solar angle, consistent sea surface temperatures. The market pricing YES at 98.7% is not a market taking a bold stand. It is a market reflecting what the weather does here every June.

The NO side requires either an unusual afternoon thunderstorm that caps the high at 30°C or below, or an exceptionally hot convective day that pushes the reading to 32°C or above. Neither is impossible. Singapore does see high-temperature days above 33°C, and it does see cooler days during heavy rainfall events. But the momentum signal this late in the trading day suggests the actual peak has already been recorded. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: 31°C has already printed, or is close enough that traders are not willing to pay more than a penny for the other side.

Signals to Monitor

• Singapore Meteorological Service publishes official daily high readings that will determine resolution.
• Any late-afternoon convective storm near the Changi or Tengah stations could shift the official high by one degree.
• The resolution timestamp at noon Singapore time is the hard cutoff for new temperature data to enter the calculation.
• Related temperature contracts for adjacent days on Polymarket would provide a baseline for whether this reading is an outlier or part of a consistent run.
• Open interest at $0 confirms all positions are settled or closing, not building new exposure.

Total volume of $42,794 is modest by Polymarket standards, but the liquidity depth and late-day momentum make the 98.7% price credible. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and right now there is very little uncertainty left. The data favors YES, the momentum favors YES, and the clock is nearly out.

LINES VERDICT

CONFIRMED HIGH

Singapore’s June 15 daily high is almost certainly already recorded at 31°C. The late-session price surge reflects real-time weather confirmation, not speculation.

What the market says: A 98.7% implied probability means traders see this as effectively resolved. With the contract closing at noon Singapore time on June 15, volatility risk is minimal and shrinking by the minute.

Key unknown: The single remaining risk is a late official data revision from the Singapore Meteorological Service that adjusts the recorded high by one degree in either direction before the noon resolution cutoff.