Singapore June 19 High Temp: 31°C at 44%

Singapore’s weather on June 19 will resolve a tight market resting on a single degree. The 31°C outcome trades at 43.5% implied probability, a meaningful jump after a 10% price surge on June 17. That move reflects fresh buying conviction, but the market remains genuinely split. The data doesn’t care about the politics of which number wins here.

The market question asks: what will the highest temperature in Singapore be on June 19? The 31°C outcome is priced at $0.44 YES and $0.57 NO. Resolution closes at 12:00 UTC on June 19, 2026. Total volume sits at $1,636, all transacted in the last 24 hours.

How the 31°C Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the highest recorded temperature in Singapore on June 19 hits exactly 31°C. Resolution follows official measurement data. It resolves NO if the peak temperature lands at any other value, whether 30°C, 32°C, or anything else on the slate.

• YES ($0.44, 43.5% probability): Singapore’s highest temperature on June 19 is exactly 31°C.
• NO ($0.57, 56.5% probability): Singapore’s highest temperature on June 19 is anything other than 31°C.

The NO outcome covers every alternative bucket: 30°C, 32°C, 29°C, 33°C, and a string of lower and higher brackets. Singapore’s Meteorological Service regularly records daily maximum temperatures in the 31-33°C range during June, but the spread of alternatives means NO consolidates substantial probability. The path to NO is simply for the thermometer to land one degree in either direction.

Momentum and Market Signals

Sponsored Partner

The momentum composite is pointing up. A 10% price surge on June 17, combined with a trend score of 56.5, signals that recent buyers favor the 31°C outcome. That move likely tracks updated short-range weather model output for Singapore on June 19, as forecast confidence sharpens within 48 hours of the target date.

Total volume is $1,636, with all of it arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity stands at $25,260 against zero open interest, which means the order book has depth but the contract is very new. Volume this thin means the 10% price move reflects a small number of trades. A single additional position could shift the price sharply before resolution.

• The 10% surge in the last hour combined with a trend score above 56 points to fresh directional buying for 31°C.
• Singapore’s June daily maximum temperatures cluster most frequently between 31°C and 33°C based on historical Meteorological Service records.
• The 1h price change is the dominant signal here. The 24h change is not available, so the full picture relies on current momentum alone.
• Thin volume below $2,000 means this market can reprice dramatically on any single weather forecast update before June 19.
• The spread of alternative outcomes (10 buckets total) structurally caps YES probability for any single temperature, which explains the $0.57 NO price.

Lines Analysis: Singapore’s Temperature Range and the 31°C Bet

Singapore’s June climate supports the 31°C thesis with context. The city-state sits near the equator and experiences consistent heat year-round. June falls outside the Northeast Monsoon and into a transitional period. Daily highs during this month from the Meteorological Service of Singapore typically land between 31°C and 33°C, with 31°C representing the lower end of the peak range. A partly cloudy or slightly wetter day pushes the max temperature toward 31°C. A clearer afternoon pushes it to 32°C or 33°C.

What makes NO real here is the structural arithmetic. Nine alternative outcomes share the NO pool. If 32°C is the more likely reading given current forecast models, traders in the 32°C bucket absorb probability that would otherwise push 31°C higher. The Meteorological Service of Singapore measures official daily maxima at Changi Climate Station. Any convective activity or an afternoon thunderstorm, common in June, can cap the temperature at 30°C. That risk is real and it lives inside the 56.5% NO price.

• Meteorological Service of Singapore releases official daily temperature data. Any forecast update showing a stronger afternoon convective pattern would push probability toward 30°C and away from 31°C.
• A clear, dry June 19 would shift probability toward 32°C or 33°C and reduce the 31°C YES price.
• Regional numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, GFS) updating through June 18 are the primary repricing catalyst before resolution.
• If Singapore receives sustained cloud cover on June 19 morning, the daily maximum is more likely to settle at 31°C than higher values.
• Open interest at zero means no locked positions yet. Any position built before June 18 carries meaningful model-update risk overnight.

Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the $1,636 in volume reflects early-stage price discovery, not settled conviction. The 31°C outcome holds a real climatological basis for June Singapore. But nine competing buckets structurally dilute any single outcome’s ceiling. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science.

LEAN YES, LOW CONFIDENCE

The 31°C outcome fits Singapore’s June climatological baseline and the recent price surge suggests fresh buyers agree. But thin volume, multiple competing outcomes, and real convective weather risk keep this market genuinely uncertain through resolution.

What the market says: At 43.5% implied probability, traders see the 31°C outcome as the single most likely temperature but far from a lock. With resolution on June 19, every weather model update between now and noon is a potential repricing event.

Key unknown: Short-range forecast output from ECMWF or GFS updated on June 18 will determine whether convective activity caps the peak at 31°C or pushes it toward 32°C. That single model run is the biggest market mover left on the calendar.