Singapore Hit 31°C on July 3: Market Resolved at 99.9% | Lines.com

Traders on Polymarket priced Singapore’s July 3 peak temperature at 31°C with near-total conviction by the time the market closed. The 31°C bracket on the multi-outcome temperature market reached a YES price of 1.00, reflecting a 99.9% implied probability. The market resolved July 3, 2026, with the Changi Airport Station measurement confirming the outcome.

The 31°C bracket opened at a 34% implied probability. By July 3, that price had surged 51.4% across 24 hours. Total volume reached $70,942, with $56,772 traded in the final day alone. That late concentration signals convergence, not hedging. Traders saw the weather data and moved.

Singapore’s July 3 Temperature Lands at 31°C

Changi Airport Station is the authoritative surface observation point for this market type. The resolution rules specified that the highest temperature recorded there on July 3 would determine the winning bracket. The 31°C bracket cleared that threshold. Singapore sits inside the Southwest Monsoon season through July. The Singapore Meteorological Service forecast above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall for June through August 2026. Those conditions lift afternoon maxima toward the 30°C to 32°C range when cloud suppression is limited.

The two-day price sequence told the story. The 31°C bracket gained 13% on July 2 and another 23% on July 3. That sequential repricing reflects traders absorbing incoming weather observations. The final-hour implied probability of 99.9% left no room for an alternative bracket. Markets that close this tight rarely surprise.

Sponsored Partner

How the Market Priced a Single-Degree Question

The 31°C bracket opened at 34% implied probability. That starting price reflects real uncertainty. Singapore’s daily maximum in July varies enough that any bracket from 29°C to 33°C carries genuine prior probability. The market opened the question correctly as a distribution problem. By resolution, the price had compressed to 99.9% on one bracket. That is clean price discovery. The market moved from wide uncertainty to near-certainty as real-world data arrived.

Total volume of $70,942 on a single-day temperature question is substantial. Liquidity stood at $116,204, which supported clean price formation across the bracket ladder. The $56,772 traded in the final 24 hours shows late-session conviction rather than early positioning. Traders who entered at the 34% open and held captured the full move. The market gave them the signal: Southwest Monsoon conditions, above-average temperature forecast, no significant rainfall suppression.

MARKET PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

• Resolution Outcome: 31°C bracket confirmed
• Article-Time Probability at open: 34% implied
• Final Price at Close: 99.9% (YES price 1.00)
• Total Volume: $70,942
• Market Assessment: Underpriced YES at open, correctly resolved by close

What a 31°C Reading Means for Singapore’s Climate Picture

Singapore’s July climate sits inside the Southwest Monsoon window. The Singapore Meteorological Service flagged above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall for June through August 2026. A 31°C maximum at Changi Airport falls within the expected range but sits above the mid-month climatological mean. Climate records show the average July daily high near 28.5°C in the first third of the month. A 31°C reading runs roughly 2.5°C above that benchmark. That gap matters when pricing temperature brackets in equatorial cities.

The bracket structure of this market captured distributional risk well. The market split outcomes into 1°C increments, from 24°C or below through 34°C or higher. That granularity gave traders enough resolution to express a precise view. The 31°C bracket absorbed the plurality of volume. That tells you the market’s collective temperature judgment tracked the meteorological signal correctly. Here’s what the measurements are telling us. When monsoon authorities signal a warm, dry season, warm-tail brackets deserve more opening weight. A naive climatological prior misses that signal.

• Singapore’s Meteorological Service forecasts above-average temperatures through August 2026, supporting continued above-climatology maxima at Changi Airport.
• The Southwest Monsoon dry-season signal reduces convective cloud suppression. Afternoon maxima lift toward the 31°C to 33°C range on clear days.
• Urban heat island effects near Changi Airport add a persistent upward bias to surface maxima relative to open-ocean baselines.
• Future single-day temperature markets in equatorial cities should weight warm-tail brackets more heavily when monsoon authorities flag above-average seasonal conditions.

LINES RESOLUTION VERDICT

CONFIRMED: 31°C BRACKET RESOLVED

The market opened 31°C at 34% and closed at 99.9%, tracking Singapore’s Southwest Monsoon temperature signal with precision. The data doesn’t care about the politics. On July 3 it delivered exactly what the seasonal forecast suggested.

What the market showed: The 31°C bracket opened at 34% implied probability and closed at 99.9% on July 3, 2026. Volume concentrated in the final 24 hours, confirming traders identified the outcome from incoming weather observations and repriced with conviction. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and when the science resolved, so did the price.