Seattle July 7 High Temp: Can It Hit 76-77°F?

Seattle’s weather on July 7 has traders split across a wide range of temperature bands, but one outcome has pulled ahead. The 76-77°F band carries a 34.5% implied probability, making it the market leader heading into resolution tomorrow. That price jumped sharply from 19 cents at open to 35 cents, a move of more than 15 percentage points driven by forecast updates on July 5.

The market question asks which two-degree band captures Seattle’s daily high on July 7, with resolution at noon local time. The 76-77°F outcome is priced at $0.35 YES and $0.66 NO. Total volume stands at $2,352, and liquidity sits at $27,865. The market resolves on 2026-07-07 at 12:00 UTC.

How the Seattle Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Seattle’s highest recorded temperature on July 7 falls between 76°F and 77°F inclusive. All other temperature bands resolve NO. The market covers a full spectrum from 69°F or below up to 88°F or higher, giving traders eleven distinct outcomes to price.

• 76-77°F (primary outcome): $0.35 YES, $0.66 NO, 34.5% implied probability
• 78-79°F: the next competing band above the leading outcome
• 74-75°F: the nearest competing band below
• 80-81°F, 82-83°F, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88°F or higher: heat outlier bands
• 72-73°F, 70-71°F, 69°F or below: cool outlier bands

The NO side pays out if Seattle’s actual high lands in any band other than 76-77°F. July in Seattle can swing several degrees depending on marine influence from Puget Sound, cloud cover timing, and whether a Pacific high pressure system holds. A forecast error of just two degrees in either direction shifts the winning band entirely.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite points modestly bearish for the 76-77°F band. The 1-hour price change of -1.0% combined with a trend score of 49 suggests the market is drifting rather than accelerating. The 15-point surge on July 5 appears to reflect a weather model update that aligned forecasts near the 76-77°F range. No comparable catalyst has moved the price since.

Total volume is $2,352, all of it arriving in the past 24 hours. That is a thin market. With under $2,500 in total trading activity, a single new forecast update or a meaningful bet could shift the price sharply before resolution tomorrow. The $27,865 liquidity pool is notably larger than the volume, which means the order book has depth but participation has been light. Treat the 34.5% probability as a directional signal, not a settled consensus.

Key Factors

• The 76-77°F band moved from $0.19 to $0.35 on July 5, signaling a forecast update aligned near that range.
• The 1-hour change of -1.0% and trend score of 49 indicate momentum has stalled since that initial move.
• Total volume of $2,352 means thin participation. Price can move sharply on any new NWS forecast update before July 7 resolution.
• Competing bands 74-75°F and 78-79°F are live alternatives. The winning band hinges on a two-degree margin.
• Seattle’s July highs historically cluster in the low-to-mid seventies, with marine layer influence capable of capping afternoon temperatures.

Lines Analysis: Seattle on July 7

The National Weather Service Seattle forecast as of early July 6 anchors near the mid-seventies range. The July 5 price surge to $0.35 aligns with forecast model runs that placed the high near 76-77°F. The Pacific high pressure system that drives Seattle’s warmer summer days appears positioned to deliver temperatures in that band, but the margin is narrow. A two-degree overshoot lands the day in the 78-79°F band. A two-degree undershoot hands it to 74-75°F.

The NO case is straightforward: Seattle’s marine layer can arrive earlier than models expect, capping the afternoon high below 76°F. Alternatively, if the Pacific high strengthens overnight, the city could push through 77°F into the next band. NWS Seattle updates its forecast twice daily. Any shift in the afternoon high guidance between now and noon on July 7 would directly reprice competing bands.

Signals to Monitor

• NWS Seattle afternoon forecast update on July 6: a one-degree shift in projected high rewrites band probabilities across the board.
• Marine layer timing: early morning fog burn-off before 10 a.m. typically allows temperatures to peak higher by early afternoon.
• AccuWeather and Weather.com model consensus: alignment near 76-77°F supports the current market leader. Divergence flags uncertainty.
• Pacific high pressure positioning: a stronger ridge pushes the high toward 78-79°F. A weaker ridge keeps it at 74-75°F or below.
• Volume movement before resolution: any bet above $500 in this thin market will visibly move the price and may reflect a trader with updated forecast data.

The $2,352 total volume is too thin to read as deep conviction. The 34.5% probability on the leading band reflects roughly one-in-three odds in a market with eleven competing outcomes. That is actually a relatively strong plurality. The data from July 5 forecast models appears to have landed traders near this band. The single most important remaining input is the NWS Seattle forecast update on the morning of July 7.

LINES VERDICT

LEADING BAND, THIN MARKET

The 76-77°F band holds the strongest plurality in a spread-out field, supported by a forecast-driven price surge on July 5. The market is pricing uncertainty across eleven bands, not settled science.

What the market says: At 34.5% implied probability, the 76-77°F band is the market’s best single guess for Seattle’s July 7 high. With $2,352 in total volume and resolution arriving in less than 24 hours, this price is volatile and susceptible to any forecast revision before noon.

Key unknown: The NWS Seattle morning forecast on July 7 is the single data point that matters most. A revised afternoon high above 77°F or below 76°F shifts the winning band entirely and reprices every competing outcome simultaneously.