Manila Hit 33°C on July 9, Market Resolved at 100% | Lines.com

Manila recorded a high of 33°C on July 9, 2026, confirming the market’s favored outcome and triggering full resolution. The Ninoy Aquino International Airport weather station, the designated resolution source via Weather Underground, logged the figure before the market’s noon cutoff. Traders who positioned early on 33°C collected a clean return on one of the more data-driven markets on Polymarket’s weather board.

The market opened at 25 cents (implied probability: 25%) and closed at 1.00 (100%). That 75-point move unfolded in roughly three days, with the sharpest acceleration arriving July 8 when the 33°C outcome jumped 31 points in a single session. Total volume reached $42,269, a signal that Manila temperature markets drew meaningful conviction. The market was dramatically underpriced at open.

Manila’s July 9 High Confirmed at 33°C

The Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station recorded 33°C as Manila’s peak temperature on July 9, 2026. Weather Underground, the designated resolution source, published the figure for the station code RPLL. The outcome resolved against eleven alternative temperature bands, ranging from 26°C or below to 36°C or higher.

At the July 7 mark, PAGASA forecasts had pointed to daytime highs of 33 to 34°C through the early July window, aligning closely with what the station ultimately recorded. By the close on July 9, the 33°C market was trading at 1.00, a convergence driven by forecasts and intraday station readings tightening around that single band.

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How the Market Performed: Underpriced Early, Accurate at the End

The implied probability at open was 25%. The market resolved YES at 100%. That gap, 75 percentage points, reflects a market that was deeply underpriced on a temperature outcome that official forecasts had flagged days in advance. The 24-hour price change of 52.5% heading into resolution was the last of three large daily moves that collectively corrected an undervalued position.

Total volume of $42,269 with $33,821 of that arriving in the final 24 hours reflects late-stage conviction rather than early price discovery. Liquidity reached $123,849, which gave the market reasonable depth for a weather instrument. The price discovery mechanism worked, but it worked slowly.

• Resolution Outcome: 33°C confirmed at Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station via Weather Underground.
• Article-Time Probability: 100% (market fully resolved).
• Final Price at Close: 1.00 (100%).
• Total Volume: $42,269.
• Market Assessment: Underpriced YES. The opening implied probability of 25% did not reflect available forecast data pointing to the 33-34°C band.

What the 33°C Reading Means Going Forward

Manila in July typically logs daytime highs in the 29 to 32°C range for the city proper, with airport stations often reading slightly warmer due to surface heat. A 33°C reading at RPLL sits at the upper end of normal for early July but does not represent an anomaly. The data doesn’t care about the politics of how cities classify heat events. What it shows is that Manila’s wet-season heat, even under monsoon cloud cover, can hold at the high end of forecast ranges when precipitation is delayed.

For prediction market participants, Manila temperature markets illustrate a structural point: binary-adjacent markets with eleven resolution bands reward early positioning when forecast data is accessible and the resolution source is transparent. Weather Underground’s RPLL station data is publicly available in real time. Traders who accessed PAGASA’s three-day forecast on July 7 had a material informational edge that the opening price did not reflect.

• PAGASA’s July 7 forecast pointed to 33-34°C highs, directly spanning the winning resolution band, giving early traders a data-backed entry point.
• The 25% opening price on 33°C implied the market treated eleven outcomes as roughly equal, which contradicted available forecast data.
• Manila’s monsoon season introduces cloud cover that moderates extreme heat, but does not reliably cap temperatures below 33°C in early July.
• Future Manila temperature markets with a transparent resolution source like Weather Underground RPLL are likely to correct faster as traders recognize the forecasting edge available through public meteorological data.

LINES RESOLUTION VERDICT

RESOLVED YES: 33°C CONFIRMED

The market got the outcome right but priced it wrong for most of its life, opening at 25% on a result that publicly available PAGASA forecasts had bracketed by July 7.

What the market showed: Opening implied probability of 25% versus a final close at 100% versus an actual confirmed outcome of 33°C at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station. The market was a textbook underpriced YES, correcting sharply over three consecutive sessions before full resolution.