Amsterdam May 31 High: Will 22°C Hit?

Amsterdam’s weather market for May 31 is sitting at a crossroads. The 22°C outcome carries a 40.5% implied probability, but the broader distribution across eleven possible outcomes means no single temperature band holds a commanding edge. Twenty-four hours of sharp trading have repriced this contract meaningfully. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and right now the data is telling traders that 22°C is the single most likely outcome without being anywhere close to a lock.

The market question asks: what will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be on May 31? The 22°C contract trades at 0.41 YES and 0.60 NO, resolving at noon on May 31, 2026. Total volume stands at $16,486, with $13,658 of that arriving in the last 24 hours alone.

How the Twenty-Two Degree Contract Works

This is a winner-take-all outcome market. YES pays out if Amsterdam’s recorded daily maximum temperature on May 31 lands exactly at 22°C. NO pays out if the high comes in at any other value across the ten alternative outcomes: 17°C or below, 18°C, 19°C, 20°C, 21°C, 23°C, 24°C, 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C and higher.

• YES (22°C hits): 0.41, implied probability 40.5%
• NO (any other outcome): 0.60, implied probability 59.5%

The NO side cashes when Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on May 31 lands anywhere outside the 22°C band. With ten competing outcomes splitting the remainder of the probability space, the NO contract reflects the structural reality of weather markets: the single-degree precision required for YES resolution is genuinely difficult to achieve. KNMI, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, maintains official Amsterdam temperature records and would serve as the authoritative measurement source for resolution.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is the most interesting part of this market. The 24-hour price change of +12.0% is a significant single-day move for a contract in this volume range. The trend score sits at 51.25, which is mildly bullish but not directionally decisive. Combined, these signals point to a market that received new weather forecast information in the last day and repriced accordingly. Late May European forecast updates, particularly from ECMWF or KNMI, would be the most natural driver of that kind of move.

Total volume of $16,486 is thin. The $13,658 in 24-hour volume dwarfs prior cumulative activity, which means this market was relatively quiet until very recently. Liquidity at $42,917 is reasonable relative to volume, but with volume below $1 million, price can move sharply on any single forecast update or large trade. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the market is pricing uncertainty, not science. A fresh short-range weather model run could reprice every outcome contract in this distribution before resolution.

Key Factors

• The 22°C contract jumped roughly 12% in 24 hours, the clearest sign that a weather model update shifted the central forecast toward this temperature band.
• The 1-hour price change is flat at 0.0%, suggesting the immediate post-update repricing has stabilized for now.
• With eleven competing outcomes, 40.5% for a single degree band is actually a strong reading. It implies 22°C is the modal forecast outcome.
• Thin total volume means a single large trade or a fresh ECMWF ensemble update could move this contract five to ten percentage points before noon on May 31.
• The 30-day price range from 0.29 to 0.42 shows this contract has been climbing steadily as the resolution date has approached and forecast certainty has increased.

Lines Analysis: What the Amsterdam Forecast Is Saying

The 22°C outcome has climbed to the top of a crowded field for a reason. Late May climatology for Amsterdam sits in the 17°C to 22°C historical range for daily maxima, with warmer excursions possible under blocking high-pressure systems. When weather models converge on a number, prediction markets follow. The 12% single-day move suggests at least one major forecast model update pointed the ensemble toward the low-to-mid twenties range, and traders responded.

The NO side remains structurally favored at 59.5% precisely because resolution requires a single-degree match. A forecast centered on 22°C with a plus-or-minus two degree spread still places substantial probability mass on 21°C and 23°C. Those neighboring outcomes are trading and pulling probability away from 22°C. An outcome at 21°C or 23°C is the most direct threat to YES resolution, not an extreme cold or heat outcome.

Signals to Monitor

• ECMWF short-range ensemble updates for May 31 Amsterdam: any shift in the deterministic forecast toward 21°C or 23°C would reprice the 22°C contract downward immediately.
• KNMI point forecast for Amsterdam Schiphol on May 31: the official Dutch meteorological service forecast is the closest proxy to resolution measurement.
• Synoptic pattern over Western Europe on May 30 to 31: a blocking high would push temperatures toward the upper end of the distribution; a frontal passage would pull them lower.
• Trading activity on the 21°C and 23°C contracts: if capital rotates into neighboring bands, that signals forecast uncertainty is widening around 22°C.
• Any significant price movement in the final 12 hours before resolution: thin liquidity means a single informed trader can move this market sharply.

Total volume of $16,486 is a thin base. The data favors the 22°C outcome as the modal single-degree outcome in this distribution, but the NO side at 59.5% reflects the genuine difficulty of single-degree resolution in a weather market. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and the next forecast model run is the most important remaining input.

LINES VERDICT

Modal Outcome, Not a Lock

The 22°C contract has earned its position as the single most probable outcome in a crowded eleven-way field, but a 40.5% probability means traders are still assigning nearly three-in-five odds to some other temperature landing on top.

What the market says: 40.5% implied probability means the market has identified 22°C as the modal forecast outcome for Amsterdam on May 31. With less than 24 hours to resolution and thin volume, this price can move sharply on any new forecast input before noon on May 31.

Key unknown: The next ECMWF or KNMI short-range ensemble update for Amsterdam on May 31 is the single data point that would reprice this contract. A one-degree shift in the deterministic forecast toward 21°C or 23°C would immediately redistribute probability across those neighboring contracts.