Will Roommates Be the #2 US Netflix Movie This Week?

Roommates entered Netflix’s US Top 10 carrying the weight of a polarizing debut. The film landed with nepotism discourse baked in, yet warm reviews followed. Now the market is asking a precise question: does Roommates hold the number-two spot through April 28?

The contract prices Roommates at 76 cents, implying a 76% chance the film finishes second on Netflix’s US movie chart for the current weekly window. That conviction has built fast. The price opened at 49 cents and hit 76 cents after a pair of sharp single-day moves this week. The math doesn’t lie: the market is not treating this as a coin flip.

How the Roommates Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Netflix officially lists Roommates as the number-two US movie for the week ending April 28, 2026. Resolution follows Netflix’s own published weekly Top 10 rankings, which the platform releases each Tuesday. The relevant body here is Netflix itself, not a third-party tracker.

• YES (Roommates finishes #2): $0.76 per share, 76% implied probability.
• NO (any other title finishes #2): $0.24 per share, 24% implied probability.

The field competing for that second slot includes Apex, Untold: The Shooting at Hawthorne Hill, Thrash, The Requin, Mass, 180, Lainey Wilson: Keepin’ Country Cool, The Travellers, and Husband, Father, Killer: The Alyssa Pladl Story. Any one of those titles finishing ahead of Roommates pays out the NO position. Thrash is the most notable threat, having already topped the charts in a prior week.

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Market Signals: Momentum and Conviction

The momentum composite reads stable. The one-hour price change is flat at 0.0%, the 24-hour change carries no directional signal, and the trend score sits at 35.62. That combination points to a market that moved hard earlier in the week and has now settled. Buyers stepped in when Roommates’ early viewership data started circulating, and sellers have not pushed back.

Total trading volume is $2,809, all of it logged within the last 24 hours. Liquidity stands at $9,258, meaning the order book can absorb new positions without dramatic price movement. Here’s what the market is missing: volume this thin can swing fast on a single large trade, especially with the resolution date just days away.

• Roommates opened this contract at $0.49 and now sits at $0.76, a 55% price increase since market open.
• The 1h price change of +0.0% and flat 24h signal confirm deceleration after two sharp upward sessions.
• Liquidity of $9,258 provides a stable order book but leaves room for late volatility.
• The 24h volume matching total volume at $2,809 confirms this market came alive this week, not weeks ago.
• Trader sentiment breaks 76% YES versus 24% NO, matching the current share price almost exactly.

Lines Analysis: Roommates at the Number-Two Spot

Roommates carries structural advantages for holding the runner-up position. The film debuted with strong enough viewership to enter Netflix’s official Top 10, and the platform’s algorithm rewards early-week momentum in its weekly rankings. Films that land in the top three during the first half of a measurement week rarely drop below five by the close. Roommates entered with a built-in audience drawn by the Sandler family connection and the discourse it generated.

The 24% NO position is not irrational. Thrash has already demonstrated it can dominate a weekly chart, and Apex is a new release this week with fresh algorithmic support. Either title could surge past Roommates if viewership accelerates in the final days before Monday’s cutoff. Roommates loses the second slot if a single competitor posts a late-week viewership spike that Netflix’s rankings capture before the Tuesday publication.

• Roommates holding flat at $0.76 after two sharp up days signals the market sees limited additional upside before resolution.
• Apex’s release timing this week gives it maximum days in the measurement window, a factor that could lift its final ranking.
• Thrash’s prior number-one finish shows the title has a proven audience willing to return to the charts.
• Netflix’s Tuesday publication date for the week ending April 28 leaves the final viewership count still accumulating through Sunday.
• A late-week algorithmic push from any new entry could redistribute rankings before the window closes.

The $2,809 in volume is modest for a binary market this close to resolution. That thinness makes the 76% price more fragile than a high-volume market would be. The data still favors Roommates finishing second, but the order book could reprice quickly on any chart update before April 28.

LINES VERDICT

Roommates Holds the Number-Two Position

The market has priced Roommates into the runner-up slot with conviction built on real viewership momentum. Competing titles would need a significant late-week surge to displace a film already embedded in Netflix’s weekly ranking cycle.

What the market says: 76% probability Roommates finishes second on Netflix’s US movie chart. The resolution date of April 28, 2026 leaves a narrow window for the chart to shift, but thin volume means any surprise viewership data could move this price before Tuesday’s official publish.

Netflix Chart Context

Netflix publishes its official weekly Top 10 every Tuesday, counting views from the Monday-to-Sunday window. Roommates debuted in a week where Trust Me: The False Prophet led the TV side, and Thrash had already claimed a number-one movie finish in a prior cycle. The Roommates release generated above-average press coverage relative to its budget, which typically translates into first-week streaming volume. The competing titles in this contract span documentaries, thrillers, and music specials. Documentaries like Untold: The Shooting at Hawthorne Hill historically peak in week one and decline sharply, limiting their threat to Roommates’ standing. Lainey Wilson: Keepin’ Country Cool targets a specific audience less likely to compete for the same ranking tier. Apex, as a new action release arriving mid-week, poses the most credible challenge before April 28.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 76% probability mean here? It means the market collectively assigns Roommates a roughly three-in-four chance of appearing as the number-two US Netflix movie for the week ending April 28, 2026.
• What pays out the NO contract? Any title other than Roommates finishing in the official number-two position on Netflix’s US weekly movie chart pays NO shareholders $1.00 per share.
• What moves this market price? New viewership data, Netflix chart updates from third-party trackers, or large trades in the order book can shift the price before the April 28 resolution.
• When does this contract resolve? The contract resolves on April 28, 2026, following Netflix’s Tuesday publication of official weekly Top 10 rankings.
• How reliable is the $2,809 volume figure? Total volume of $2,809 is low, reflecting a niche entertainment market. The $9,258 in liquidity provides a stable order book, but prices here can move more sharply than in high-volume political or economic markets.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of April 25, 2026. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new information emerges, especially as the April 28, 2026 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.