Will ‘Swapped’ Be the #2 Netflix Movie This Week?

Swapped entered the Netflix US top 10 this week at number one. Now the market is betting it slides exactly one position. That is a narrow and specific outcome, and the 52.5% price reflects genuine uncertainty about where the animated title lands when Netflix publishes its official weekly chart for the period ending May 19.

The contract trades at $0.53 YES and $0.48 NO, a near-coin-flip. Total volume sits at $7,962, all of it within the last 24 hours. The market opened at $0.27 and surged sharply on May 14 before settling at current levels. Momentum shows a flat 1-hour reading with no 24-hour comparison available, and a trend score of 30.00 signals selling pressure after the early spike.

How the Swapped Chart Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Swapped finishes as the number two Netflix movie in the United States for the weekly chart period ending May 19, 2026. Netflix publishes official rankings based on cumulative viewing hours. The resolution source is market resolution aligned with that weekly Netflix official chart.

• YES pays out at $1.00 if Swapped ranks exactly second on the US Netflix movies chart this week.
• NO pays out at $0.48 if Swapped finishes at any rank other than second: first, third, or lower.

Swapped avoids a YES payout in two scenarios. Either Swapped stays at number one and a different film claims second, or Swapped drops to third or below as new arrivals or catalog resurgences push the animated film down the chart. The Proposal, Apex, and Remarkably Bright Creatures are all live competitors for that second slot.

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Price Movement Signals a Market Still Finding Direction

Swapped’s YES contract shows a 1-hour change of flat 0.0%, no confirmed 24-hour directional print, and a trend score of 30.00. Combined, those three readings point to selling pressure following the early surge. The price spike on May 14 pushed the contract from $0.27 to near current levels, but the momentum has stalled.

Liquidity stands at $3,977 against $7,962 in total volume. That ratio suggests traders are active but conviction is not deep. The order book is thin enough that a single large bet could move this price meaningfully before Tuesday’s resolution.

• Swapped ranked first on the Netflix US chart for the week of May 9 with 79 points, well clear of Apex at 71 points.
• Remarkably Bright Creatures held the second position on May 9 and 10 per multiple chart trackers, complicating the Apex narrative.
• The 1h price change of +0.0% and trend score of 30.00 together signal no new buying pressure entering the market as of May 14.
• Liquidity at $3,977 is thin relative to volume, meaning the market is vulnerable to sudden directional shifts before May 19.
• The YES price surged 32% on May 14, suggesting a large early bet drove the initial move rather than broad consensus building.

Lines Analysis: Swapped at the Top Creates a Tricky Path to Second

Here is what the market is missing. Swapped currently sits at number one, not number two. For this contract to pay YES, Swapped needs to be displaced from the top spot by exactly one competing title. Apex, Remarkably Bright Creatures, or a new release arriving before May 19 must claim first while Swapped holds second. That is a two-condition outcome, not one.

The NO side wins in the more likely scenario where Swapped remains the week’s dominant title. The animated film posted 79 points in its debut week, a strong margin. Catalog titles like The Proposal and Pretty Woman are gaining traction, but neither carries the weekly ceiling to unseat Swapped at number one. New arrivals before May 19 could change that calculation quickly.

• Swapped dropping to third or lower would push the NO price sharply higher heading into Tuesday resolution.
• A new Netflix original film landing in the top 10 before May 19 is the clearest wildcard that reshapes the entire chart order.
• Remarkably Bright Creatures maintaining chart momentum makes the YES outcome more plausible if it overtakes Swapped for first.
• Netflix’s official weekly hours data, typically released Tuesday, will move this market to near-zero or near-one instantly on resolution day.

The math does not lie: at $7,962 in volume and $3,977 in liquidity, this market reflects informed but limited conviction. The data leans toward NO given Swapped’s dominant first-place position, but the gap is too narrow to call with confidence before the official chart drops.

LINES VERDICT

Narrow NO Lean

Swapped debuted at number one with a commanding point margin. A film holding first rarely slides to exactly second without meaningful new competition, and no confirmed blockbuster new release is set before May 19.

What the market says: At 52.5% YES, the contract is essentially a coin flip. The resolution window closes May 19, 2026, and any new Netflix arrival this week flips the probability distribution entirely.

Swapped, Netflix Charts, and the Numbers Behind This Bet

Swapped’s chart performance this week follows a pattern common to new Netflix originals: strong debut, then a gradual fade as catalog titles absorb returning viewers. The animated film secured first place with 79 points for the May 9 week. Apex trailed at 71 points, with Remarkably Bright Creatures, The Proposal, and Striking Distance rounding out the top five.

The market opened this contract at $0.27, a deep discount implying Swapped was far more likely to stay first or drop further. The surge to $0.53 on May 14 reflects recalibrated thinking, likely driven by chart data showing Apex and Remarkably Bright Creatures as genuine threats to the top spot. Before May 19 resolution, watch for any Netflix new release announcement and updated daily rankings. Either signal will move this thin market fast.

FAQ

• A 52.5% probability means the market currently assigns just over even odds that Swapped finishes exactly second on the official US Netflix movies chart for this weekly period.
• The NO contract pays out if Swapped finishes anywhere other than second, including remaining at first place or dropping to third or below.
• New Netflix film releases before May 19 and daily chart shifts are the primary catalysts that will move this price before resolution.
• This contract resolves on May 19, 2026, based on the official Netflix weekly chart for US movies covering the current tracking period.
• At $7,962 in total volume and $3,977 in liquidity, this is a low-volume market where individual large trades can shift the price significantly.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of May 14, 2026. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new information emerges, especially as the May 19, 2026 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.