GOAT Locks Up #2 on Netflix’s Weekly Film Chart

Netflix’s weekly chart already told the story. GOAT sits at the number two position on the US Netflix film rankings, and the prediction market has responded accordingly. The contract now prices GOAT at 97.8% probability — a near-certain outcome with just days left before the May 26 resolution. The industry has already made up its mind.

The market question asks whether GOAT will finish as the #2 US Netflix movie this week. YES contracts trade at $0.98. NO contracts trade at $0.02. The market resolves on May 26, 2026, and total volume stands at $11,512. With the chart window closing imminently, this is about as settled as a short-duration streaming market gets.

How the GOAT Netflix Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if GOAT finishes as the number two film on the official US Netflix weekly top movies chart for the week ending around May 26, 2026. Netflix publishes its global and country-level top ten lists weekly, ranking titles by hours viewed. The resolution source is that official chart data. A YES outcome requires GOAT to hold the two slot when Netflix finalizes the count. A NO outcome requires any other title — Ladies First, Remarkably Bright Creatures, The Crash, Black Phone 2, or another competitor — to rank higher than GOAT while GOAT drops out of the second position entirely.

• YES ($0.98): GOAT finishes as the official #2 US Netflix movie this week (97.8% implied probability).
• NO ($0.02): Any other title displaces GOAT from the second spot before the chart locks (2.2% implied probability).

A NO payout requires a title like Black Phone 2, Ladies First, or Remarkably Bright Creatures to surge past GOAT in hours viewed before Netflix closes the weekly measurement window. At this stage in the chart cycle, a late-week viewership surge of that magnitude would be historically unusual. Short-duration chart markets at 97.8% typically reflect confirmed mid-week data rather than speculation.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum picture here is unusually clean. Both the one-hour and 24-hour price changes register at +62.3%, and the trend score sits at 77.23. That kind of synchronized spike across timeframes points to a single catalyst: Netflix’s mid-week chart data or an early official list publication showing GOAT firmly planted at number two. The market moved from 0.36 to 0.98 in a single session. That is not gradual conviction building. That is a data drop.

Total volume is $11,512, with $4,957 traded in the last 24 hours. Liquidity stands at $70,047 — notably deep relative to volume, which means the order book can absorb movement without dramatic price swings. Still, total volume sits well below $1 million, so a single large trade or a surprise chart revision could theoretically move price. At 97.8%, there is almost no room left to move upward.

Key Factors

• GOAT’s one-hour and 24-hour price both jumped 62.3%, a simultaneous surge consistent with confirmed chart data entering the market.
• The contract opened at 0.36, meaning traders initially gave GOAT roughly one-in-three odds before the chart position became clear.
• Liquidity of $70,047 dwarfs total volume, suggesting market makers are positioned but retail activity has been modest.
• The resolution window closes May 26, giving competitors fewer than 48 hours to accumulate the viewing hours needed to displace GOAT.
• None of the named competitors — Ladies First, The Crash, Black Phone 2, Nope, Apex — have shown price movement suggesting traders expect a late surge.

Lines Analysis: GOAT’s Position on the Chart

Here’s what the precursors are telling us. GOAT’s move from 0.36 to 0.98 in a single trading session is the clearest signal this market has produced. Chart markets at this price level almost always reflect confirmed streaming data, not projection. Netflix’s weekly measurement window is nearly closed, and the hours-viewed gap between GOAT and the field appears wide enough that no competitor has attracted meaningful NO-side capital.

The field is real but not threatening. Remarkably Bright Creatures and Ladies First are the two titles with enough platform profile to accumulate late-week views. A viral social media moment or a major press beat for either film could theoretically push their numbers. But chart displacements in the final 48 hours of a Netflix measurement week require a dramatic, sustained surge — not just a good weekend. The NO contract at 2.2% is pricing that scenario as remote.

Signals to Monitor

• Netflix’s official weekly top ten publication will serve as the resolution trigger — any delay or revision is the primary operational risk for this contract.
• A viral moment or major press event for Black Phone 2 or Remarkably Bright Creatures before May 26 could attract late viewing hours, though the gap appears substantial.
• Liquidity depth at $70K means a coordinated large NO buy could briefly move price, even if fundamentals remain unchanged.
• Netflix’s official chart methodology counts hours viewed Sunday through Saturday, so weekend viewing patterns still factor into the final tally.
• If GOAT’s release date or Netflix availability is adjusted retroactively, market resolution timelines could shift — a low-probability operational wildcard.

The data favors YES overwhelmingly. Total volume of $11,512 is modest, but the liquidity structure and the synchronized price move tell a coherent story. The market hasn’t caught up to the buzz yet in one sense — the 0.36 opening price suggests the chart position wasn’t obvious at market launch — but it has absolutely caught up now. GOAT at #2 is the market consensus.

LINES VERDICT

EFFECTIVELY SETTLED

GOAT’s 62.3% single-session price jump reflects confirmed chart data, not momentum speculation. The measurement window closes in under 48 hours with no competitor showing the kind of viewership surge that displaces a locked-in chart position.

What the market says: At 97.8% implied probability, this contract is priced as a near-certainty. With resolution on May 26, the remaining 2.2% accounts for operational risk and a theoretical late-week viewership reversal — not genuine competitive uncertainty.

Key unknown: The single event that could reprice this contract is Netflix’s official weekly chart publication itself. Any discrepancy between mid-week tracking data and the finalized hours-viewed count — or an unexpected surge from Black Phone 2 or Remarkably Bright Creatures — represents the only live risk before resolution.

Industry Context

Netflix’s weekly top ten operates on a simple hours-viewed methodology: total global or country-specific hours streamed between Sunday and Saturday determine rank. US chart positions tend to be heavily influenced by new release debuts and algorithmic promotion on the platform’s home screen. A title reaching number two in mid-week data almost always holds that position barring a major new release or a viral cultural event in the final days. The companion titles on this list — Nope (Jordan Peele’s 2022 theatrical hit), Gabby’s Dollhouse: the Movie, and Apex — represent the range of catalog and original content competing for weekly chart slots. None has shown price movement suggesting a late challenge. GOAT’s position looks stable heading into the final chart window.

What would move price before May 26: Only Netflix publishing a chart showing a different title at number two would shift this contract materially. Short of that, 97.8% is the ceiling and the floor.