Will ‘Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ Hit $11.5-12.5M in Weekend Five?

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is hurtling toward a weekend that will decide which box office bracket traders collect on. After a dominant run that pushed domestic cumulatives past $390 million, the fifth frame now becomes a precision bet. Tracking signals point squarely at the $11.5-12.5 million range, putting the YES contract at 45.5% in a genuine fight with the field of alternatives.

The market price of $0.46 reflects a split verdict. Traders are not convinced this weekend lands cleanly in the target bracket. The $0.55 NO price says 54.5% of capital believes the film either overshoots or undershoots the $11.5-12.5 million window before the May 4 resolution clock expires.

How the Super Mario Galaxy Movie Fifth Weekend Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the Super Mario Galaxy Movie earns between $11.5 million and $12.5 million at the domestic box office during its fifth weekend (May 2-4, 2026). Alternative brackets include less than $11.5M, $12.5-13.5M, $13.5-14.5M, and greater than $14.5M. Market resolution determines the outcome based on official weekend estimates.

• $11.5-12.5M (YES): $0.46 (45.5% implied probability)
• All other brackets (NO): $0.55 (54.5% implied probability)

The NO side wins if the Super Mario Galaxy Movie misses the $11.5-12.5 million window in either direction. The film earned $21.2 million in its fourth weekend, a drop that already pushed domestic rivals aside. If weekend-over-weekend decline continues at roughly 45-50%, the math lands right on the border between the target bracket and the less-than-$11.5 million alternative. That tightness is exactly why NO holds the edge right now.

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Market Signals: A Sharp Overnight Move With Mixed Conviction

The momentum composite here is a mixed signal worth parsing carefully. The 1-hour change is flat at 0.0%, the 24-hour change is a sharp plus-12.0%, and the trend score sits at 41.05. That pattern, one big day followed by a stall, points to decelerating buying pressure rather than a sustained directional push. Something catalyzed a rush of YES bets on May 2, but the move has not carried through.

Total volume stands at $5,011 with $4,899 of that trading in the last 24 hours. That means nearly all market activity happened today. Liquidity depth at $5,688 is thin. This is a low-volume, sharp-move market where a handful of trades drove the price from the open to $0.46 today. Confidence in the current price level is limited until more volume confirms the level.

• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earned $21.2 million domestically in weekend four, with the cumulative crossing $390 million in North America.
• The 1-hour change of 0.0% paired with the 24-hour surge of plus-12.0% together signal deceleration, not a fresh breakout.
• Liquidity at $5,688 means single large trades can shift price meaningfully before the May 4 resolution deadline.
• The less-than-$11.5 million bracket becomes more viable as fifth-weekend decline rates for animated films historically deepen.
• The 24-hour volume of $4,899 represents nearly all of total traded value, pointing to a very concentrated and recent shift in trader positioning.

Lines Analysis: Super Mario Galaxy Movie Bracket Battle

The math doesn’t lie on what supports YES here. Pre-weekend tracking had the Super Mario Galaxy Movie projected around $11.2 million, sitting just below the floor of the YES bracket. That projection, combined with the market’s move to 45.5%, tells you traders think tracking is slightly underestimating the final number. Any bump from school holidays, late-week audience building, or a softer competitive slate could push the total into the $11.5-12.5 million window.

Here’s what the market is missing on the NO side. The $11.2 million tracking number matters because it sits right at the bracket boundary. If the Super Mario Galaxy Movie lands at $11.1 million or $11.4 million, YES traders lose on a rounding error. A sharper week-five decline than expected lands this in the less-than-$11.5 million bracket, which holds strong implied probability as the most likely single alternative.

• A confirmed tracking update above $11.5 million would push the YES price toward $0.60 or higher before Sunday.
• A wider competitive release for weekend five, or weather events in major markets, could depress the final number below the bracket floor.
• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s global strength approaching $850 million worldwide does not affect this domestic-only contract.
• Volume confirmation above $10,000 total before Saturday would signal traders have more conviction in the current $0.46 price.
• Any official studio estimate released Friday evening becomes the strongest price catalyst before Sunday resolution.

The $5,011 in total volume is thin context for a market this close to resolution. The data favors neither side with conviction. The 45.5% YES price reflects genuine uncertainty about a $1 million range on a film generating tens of millions per weekend.

LINES VERDICT

Bracket Too Tight to Call

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s fifth weekend sits on a knife edge. Pre-weekend tracking near $11.2 million puts the film just outside the YES bracket, and thin volume at $5,011 means the market has not yet found consensus.

What the market says: 45.5% probability that domestic box office lands between $11.5 million and $12.5 million, with the May 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM resolution deadline meaning any new tracking data or Friday actuals will move this market fast.

Box Office Prediction Market Context

Box office contracts resolve on hard data with no subjective interpretation. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie contract resolves purely on official weekend estimates, which studios typically release Sunday morning. There are no endorsements, no procedural delays, and no court challenges to watch. The market moves on information: updated tracking numbers and early Friday actuals, which typically drop by Saturday morning.

Before the May 4 resolution, Friday domestic actuals for the Super Mario Galaxy Movie will be the single biggest price catalyst. If Friday gross points to a weekend total above $11.5 million, YES should see renewed buying pressure. If Friday actuals point below $11.5 million, NO closes the gap fast.

FAQ

• What does 45.5% mean for this contract? It means traders currently price a 45.5% chance the Super Mario Galaxy Movie earns between $11.5 million and $12.5 million this weekend domestically. Roughly one-in-two odds.
• What pays out on NO? Any bracket other than $11.5-12.5 million pays NO holders. The film landing at $11.2 million or $13.1 million both resolve as NO wins on this contract.
• What moves this price before resolution? Updated tracking data, Friday actuals from studios, and any major competitive release news will shift the Super Mario Galaxy Movie contract price before Sunday close.
• When does this contract resolve? The market resolves on May 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM. Official studio weekend estimates typically arrive Sunday morning, making that the final pricing window.
• Is the volume here reliable for reading conviction? At $5,011 total volume and $5,688 liquidity, this market is thin. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie price at $0.46 can shift significantly on minimal new activity before resolution.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-02 18:20:02. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new information emerges, especially as the 2026-05-04 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.