Will ‘Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ Top $20.5M in Its 4th Weekend?

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has been the story of the 2026 domestic box office. Now the market is asking whether the plumbers can clear $20.5 million in their fourth weekend. The YES contract sits at 56 cents as of April 24, implying a 55.5% chance the film sustains above that threshold. Here’s what the market is missing: tracking data that hit Tuesday sparked a 17% price jump and then a 23.5% spike within hours. That kind of signal doesn’t come from noise.

The market for this contract is still forming fast. Total volume sits at just $5,932, with $5,928 of that moving in the last 24 hours. The liquidity pool of $16,419 sets the ceiling for how much a single bet can move the price. This is a thin-but-active contract, and the momentum reading tells the real story.

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How the Super Mario Galaxy Movie Fourth-Weekend Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the Super Mario Galaxy Movie earns more than $20.5 million at the domestic box office in its fourth weekend. Resolution follows official domestic weekend estimates, typically reported Sunday evening and confirmed Monday. The contract closes April 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

• YES (>$20.5M): 56 cents, implying 55.5% probability
• NO (any other bracket): 45 cents, implying 44.5% probability across four lower tiers: $19-20.5M, $17.5-19M, $16-17.5M, and under $16M

The lower outcomes range from just-below-threshold ($19-20.5M) to steep drops (under $16M). Each of those four brackets competes for the remaining 44.5% probability. The film falls into a lower tier if competition, seasonal softness, or a faster-than-expected fade knocks the weekend below $20.5 million. Illumination and Universal would need a Friday number under roughly $6 million for that scenario to look credible heading into Saturday.

Market Signals Point to Buying Pressure With One Catch

The momentum composite on the YES contract reads as a decelerating signal. The 1-hour change of -2.0% counters a 24-hour gain of +5.0%, and the trend score sits at 29.39. The math doesn’t lie here: the big Tuesday-Wednesday tracking pop has started to cool. That pattern means early buyers locked in gains, and the contract is now consolidating near 56 cents rather than pushing higher.

The $5,928 in 24-hour volume accounts for virtually all of the $5,932 in total lifetime volume. That tells you this contract opened recently and drew immediate attention. The $16,419 liquidity pool is moderate, meaning the price can still move meaningfully if a large block of capital enters before Friday’s box office report lands.

Key Factors

• The YES contract rose sharply on April 23, gaining more than 40% across two separate moves before giving back 12% on April 24.
• The 24-hour price change of +5.0% remains positive despite the 1-hour pullback of -2.0%, confirming the net directional lean is still bullish.
• The trend score of 29.39 places momentum below the threshold for confirmed buying pressure, signaling the initial catalyst may be losing steam.
• Related markets show the Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 63% to be the highest-grossing film of 2026, consistent with strong fourth-weekend expectations.
• Total market volume remains under $6,000, which limits the statistical weight of the current price signal compared to higher-volume contracts.

Lines Analysis: What the Numbers Say About Super Mario Galaxy Movie

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie enters its fourth weekend as the second-highest-grossing global film of 2026 with a domestic cumulative run deep into nine figures. Films performing at this level historically sustain fourth-weekend multipliers that land between 12% and 15% of their opening-weekend gross. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opened to approximately $130-140 million domestically on a standard three-day basis. A 14% retention of that figure lands almost exactly at $20.5 million. The 55.5% probability reflects a film running close to the threshold, not one cruising past it.

The alternative scenario gains traction if Easter weekend competition arrived early or if Illumination’s own audience aged out faster than typical animation holds. The $19-20.5M bracket in particular represents a credible landing zone. The combined probability of the four lower tiers sits at 44.5%, meaning the market sees this as a genuine coin-flip-plus. The Galaxy Movie needs Friday to come in at $6M or better to make $20.5M achievable by Sunday night.

Signals to Monitor

• Friday domestic estimates from Universal: a number at $6M or above strongly supports the YES outcome and should push the contract toward 65 cents or higher.
• Competition from new wide releases opening the same weekend: any strong counter-programmer directly compresses the Galaxy Movie’s screen count and per-theater average.
• The related market showing 63% odds for highest-grossing film of 2026 reinforces that traders believe the Galaxy Movie has strong legs through mid-year.
• A contract price move above 60 cents before Friday close would signal new tracking data or exhibitor estimates are leaking into the market.
• A drop below 50 cents before resolution would suggest the early box office reports came in soft and the lower-tier outcomes are gaining probability.

The $5,928 in 24-hour volume confirms active participation, but the overall pool is still small enough for a single informed trader to move the market. The data currently favors YES at 55.5%, though the deceleration in momentum after the April 23 surge is worth watching.

LINES VERDICT

Leaning YES, With Caution

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has demonstrated the kind of sustained domestic hold that pushes fourth-weekend numbers above the $20.5 million line. The tracking-driven price jump on April 23 was the real signal. The pullback since is consolidation, not reversal.

What the market says: 55.5% probability the Galaxy Movie clears $20.5M this weekend. Momentum is decelerating after a sharp two-day run-up, and the April 27 at 12:00 PM ET resolution means official Sunday estimates will either confirm or collapse this price in a single data point.

FAQ

What does 55.5% probability mean here? It means the market collectively assigns a slight edge to the Galaxy Movie finishing above $20.5M domestically this weekend. It is not a guarantee; 44.5% of the probability mass sits in lower-earning brackets.

What does holding the NO contract mean? Holding NO pays out if the Super Mario Galaxy Movie earns $20.5M or less in its fourth domestic weekend, landing in any of the four lower-tier brackets instead.

What moves this contract’s price? Early box office tracking, Friday night estimates from Universal, and wider market intelligence about competing releases all shift the YES price in real time before Sunday’s official numbers.

When does this contract resolve? The contract resolves April 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, aligned with official domestic weekend box office reporting.

How reliable is the volume and liquidity data? Total volume is $5,932 with $16,419 in liquidity. Volume is low, which means individual large trades carry more price influence than in higher-volume contracts. Treat current probability as directionally useful, not precise.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of April 24, 2026. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new information emerges, especially as the April 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.