Will ‘Mortal Kombat II’ earn under $20M in its 2nd weekend?

Mortal Kombat II opened to $40 million domestically in its debut weekend, finishing second behind The Devil Wears Prada 2. A standard action-sequel drop of 55-65% from that number lands between $14 million and $18 million. The market has priced that math as settled: 95.5% probability for a second-weekend gross under $20 million. The math doesn’t lie, and right now the math says this bracket is locked.

Prediction markets are trading the under-$20M contract at $0.96. Total volume sits at $3,157 with $14,164 in available liquidity. This is a low-activity market where conviction drives the signal. Traders have reached a consensus and stopped debating.

How the Mortal Kombat II Second Weekend Contract Works

This contract resolves based on the domestic box office gross for Mortal Kombat II during its second weekend of release, with a resolution date of May 18, 2026. Traders bet on one of four revenue brackets.

• Under $20M (primary outcome): $0.96 implied probability, 95.5% chance
• $20-23M: $0.05 implied probability, roughly 5% chance
• $23-26M: Priced near zero
• Over $26M: Priced near zero

A second-weekend total above $20 million requires Mortal Kombat II to drop less than 50% from its $40 million debut. Action sequels competing against a still-dominant rival film rarely hold that well. The structural case for a payout above the under-$20M line is thin.

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Market Signals Show Locked-In Conviction

Momentum for the under-$20M outcome is static and firm. The 1-hour change is flat at +0.0%, 24-hour data is unavailable, and the trend score reads 30.00. Combined, these signals describe a market that finished its price discovery the moment opening weekend estimates posted. No new catalyst has entered.

Trading volume of $3,157 against $14,164 in liquidity confirms low urgency. Capital is available. Traders simply are not using it because the outcome is treated as resolved. The 95.5% price reflects stable equilibrium, not active buying pressure.

• Mortal Kombat II’s $40M opening sets up a sub-$20M second weekend under typical 55-65% genre drop rates for action sequels.
• The flat 1h change of +0.0% and trend score of 30.00 reflect a fully settled market with no directional pressure as of May 13, 2026.
• Liquidity at $14,164 versus $3,157 in volume confirms consensus rather than active debate.
• The $20-23M bracket holds just 5% implied probability, meaning the market sees almost no path to a softer landing.

Lines Analysis: Mortal Kombat II

Mortal Kombat II’s debut performance supports the under-$20M case directly. Here’s what the market is missing: this isn’t even a close call. A 50% hold from $40 million produces exactly $20 million. The film needs to beat the genre average just to reach the bracket boundary. The Devil Wears Prada 2 held the top spot across Mortal Kombat II’s opening weekend, drawing from a separate audience base that won’t convert to repeat Mortal Kombat II viewership in week two. That dynamic steepens the drop further.

The $20-23M bracket remains the only realistic alternative. Mortal Kombat II closes that gap if audience word-of-mouth is unusually strong and competing new releases underperform significantly. The market assigns that outcome 5%, which reflects the correct level of residual uncertainty given typical sequel retention patterns.

• A 55% drop from Mortal Kombat II’s $40M debut produces roughly $18M, squarely inside the under-$20M bracket.
• New wide releases arriving the weekend of May 16 could compress Mortal Kombat II’s screen count and steepen the drop further.
• Strong audience scores could slow decay toward the $20M boundary, which is the primary signal to watch before resolution.
• Any Friday actual above $7 million would suggest a second-weekend pace threatening the $20M bracket line and would shift market price.
• A major screen count reduction below 2,800 venues would reinforce the under-$20M consensus and push the contract price toward $0.98 or higher.

Volume of $3,157 is thin, but the market price aligns with independent box office math. Standard drop rates, genre precedent, and the competitive calendar all point to the same place. The data favors the under-$20M outcome decisively.

LINES VERDICT

Under Twenty Million

Mortal Kombat II’s $40 million opening and standard genre mechanics put the second-weekend gross well below $20 million. The market reached consensus the moment first-weekend numbers posted, and nothing since has given it a reason to move.

What the market says: 95.5% probability for the under-$20M outcome. The market has treated this as settled since opening weekend. Any price movement before the May 18, 2026 resolution would require early tracking estimates to show an unexpected hold above $19 million.

FAQ

• What does 95.5% probability mean here? Traders collectively believe Mortal Kombat II’s second-weekend domestic gross lands under $20 million with 95.5% confidence. It is not a guarantee, but it reflects near-unanimous market consensus.
• What happens if the second weekend is $20-23M? The under-$20M contract pays nothing. The $20-23M bracket, priced near $0.05, would resolve as the winning outcome and pay its holders.
• What moves this contract’s price? Early tracking estimates and Friday actuals for the weekend of May 16 are the primary catalysts before the May 18, 2026 resolution date.
• When does this market resolve? The contract resolves on May 18, 2026, based on the official domestic gross for Mortal Kombat II’s second weekend.
• Is $3,157 in volume enough to trust this market? Low volume reduces signal reliability, but the 95.5% consensus aligns precisely with standard box office drop math, strengthening confidence despite the thin trading base.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of May 13, 2026. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new information emerges, especially as the May 18, 2026 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.