Is the Prince Andrew Polymarket Already Resolved?

The Prince Andrew “released by” market on Polymarket has reached a state of total price consensus. The YES contract sits at $1.00, meaning traders collectively assign a near-certainty probability to the February 20 outcome. With zero active trading in the past 24 hours, this market has essentially closed itself before the official resolution date.

The Prince Andrew released by…? contract carries $178,630 in total lifetime volume and $53,290 in available liquidity. It resolves on 2026-06-30, but the price action tells you the market already considers this question answered.

How the Prince Andrew Released By Contract Works

This contract resolves YES for the February 20 outcome if the designated resolution source confirms Prince Andrew was released by that date. The resolution authority is Polymarket’s own market resolution process, not a third-party news trigger. The contract closes on June 30, 2026.

• YES: February 20 is the correct resolution outcome. Price: $1.00. Probability: 99.9%. Resolves: 2026-06-30.
• NO: February 20 is not the correct outcome. Price: $0.00. Probability: 0.1%. Resolves: 2026-06-30.

A NO buyer needs the resolution source to confirm a different date, specifically February 19, February 21, or February 22. The 0.1% residual probability on NO reflects pure market microstructure noise, not genuine uncertainty. Any trader holding NO at $0.00 faces a near-guaranteed total loss with no realistic path to recovery before June 30, 2026.

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Liquidity Signals Point to a Market That Has Already Spoken

Momentum data shows zero 24-hour price change, zero 7-day price change, and a price locked at $1.00. Combined with $0 in 24-hour trading volume, this is not a market in deliberation. The question has been priced as settled.

The $178,630 in lifetime volume confirms real capital entered this market at earlier stages. The $53,290 in available liquidity remains on the books but is functionally inert. Zero open interest means no active positions are waiting to resolve. The money has already voted and stopped moving.

• YES price: Sits at $1.00, the maximum possible value, reflecting a resolved-in-practice market.
• 24-hour volume: $0 traded in the past 24 hours, confirming zero new conviction needed.
• Available liquidity: $53,290 on the books but generating no transactions as of 2026-04-01.
• Open interest: $0, meaning no outstanding positions remain unresolved among active traders.
• Related market context: Adjacent Epstein-adjacent markets show far lower probabilities, with Epstein client list released at 12% and Maxwell pardon at 8%, suggesting this Prince Andrew outcome is uniquely certain versus its thematic neighbors.

Lines Analysis: Prince Andrew February 20 Outcome

The case for YES is structural, not speculative. A $1.00 price with $178,630 in total volume means the market spent real capital arriving at this conclusion. No trader has placed a meaningful bet on any alternative date. The February 19, 21, and 22 outcomes carry no visible market support. When a multi-outcome market concentrates entirely on one answer at maximum price, that is consensus, not momentum.

The case for NO amounts to a single scenario: the resolution source produces an unexpected date discrepancy. February 19 or 21 could theoretically emerge if the underlying event straddles a day boundary across time zones or if the source documents a different timestamp. That scenario explains the 0.1% residual but nothing more. No capital has moved to support it.

• Prince Andrew contract volume: $178,630 lifetime total, confirms sustained early-stage engagement before price locked.
• Resolution date June 30, 2026: Still 90-plus days away, but price movement has already stopped, suggesting traders see no new information capable of shifting the outcome.
• Zero open interest: No traders are holding active positions, pointing to a market where the real action concluded before April 2026.
• Adjacent market divergence: Related markets like Epstein island visitors at 23% and Maxwell pardon at 8% show active uncertainty nearby, making this market’s $1.00 price stand out as categorically different.
• Liquidity-to-volume ratio: $53,290 in liquidity against $0 in current volume signals the book is open but the debate is over.

The $178,630 in total volume represents real conviction that arrived early and hardened completely. The math doesn’t lie: when price hits $1.00 and trading volume hits $0.00 simultaneously, the market has rendered its verdict. Here’s what the market is missing, which is nothing. This is a rare case where the absence of activity is itself the signal. All available data favors the February 20 resolution as a foregone conclusion.

LINES VERDICT

February Twenty Confirmed

The Prince Andrew released by market has locked at maximum probability with no dissenting capital and no active trading, making February 20 the unanimous market conclusion.

What the market says: At near-certainty, this contract reflects a resolved outcome in all but official paperwork. The June 30, 2026 resolution date is a formality at this price level.