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Netherlands vs Morocco Odds and Prediction (2026)

Sport
June 29, 2026
Morocco Vs Netherlands 2026 06 29 Hero

Netherlands vs Morocco odds frame a Round of 32 tie in Monterrey on June 29, 2026. Both nations advanced from the group stage with strong records. Market-implied probabilities give the Netherlands a narrow edge.

Why the market splits closely between the Netherlands and Morocco

Three-way odds imply the Netherlands near 45% after vig removal. Morocco sits near 27%, and the draw near 29% on the same line. Sportsbooks listed the Netherlands at +115, the draw at +230, and Morocco at +260. Advancement pricing favors the Netherlands near 60% to reach the next round. Morocco holds roughly 40% advancement probability after extra time and penalties.

The Netherlands won Group F with 9 points and three wins. The Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 during the group stage. Morocco finished Group C runner-up on 7 points behind Brazil. Morocco reached the semifinals at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Morocco became the first African World Cup semifinalist in 2022. The Netherlands reached the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals in Qatar. Ronald Koeman leads the Netherlands as head coach.

Koeman expects one change with Micky van de Ven at left-back. Defender Jurrien Timber missed the entire tournament with a groin injury. Morocco welcomes back Noussair Mazraoui and Azzedine Ounahi to the XI. Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Diaz start for Morocco in Monterrey. Forward Ismael Saibari joins Bayern Munich this summer, per reports. Ismael Saibari scored three goals across three Morocco appearances.

The winner advances to the Round of 16 in early July 2026. The loser exits the 2026 World Cup in Monterrey. The Netherlands still seeks a first World Cup title in the nation's history. Morocco aims to repeat the deep run from 2022. Morocco carries strong support across the Monterrey crowd. Estadio BBVA in Monterrey hosts the knockout tie.

Bookmakers rate this fixture among the closest Round of 32 ties. The narrow Netherlands price reflects Morocco's defensive record. Morocco conceded few goals across the 2026 group stage. The draw price near +230 signals real extra-time risk. Live odds could tighten further as kickoff approaches in Monterrey. The Netherlands vs Morocco winner enters a balanced knockout half.

Sportsbooks kept the Netherlands a slim favorite into kickoff. The tight three-way line signals an evenly matched knockout tie. Any Hakimi or Saibari update could move the Netherlands vs Morocco market. Lines.com reports these market-implied probabilities for informational purposes only.

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Sources: BetMGM and DraftKings odds, plus Polymarket pricing, informed this preview. Sports Mole and RotoWire team news supplied additional lineup detail.

Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. This content is for informational purposes only.

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