ESPN's FPI Makes the Rams 2026 Super Bowl Favorites

ESPN’s FPI Makes the Rams 2026 Super Bowl Favorites

Sport

By lines

June 3, 2026

Pop-art illustration of a running athlete representing NFL FPI 2026 projections

ESPN’s FPI projections just crowned an early 2026 Super Bowl favorite. The Los Angeles Rams lead all NFL teams at 14.9 percent. No other NFL team sits within four points.

Rams Lead, but the AFC Stays Stacked

ESPN’s FPI gives the Rams a 14.9 percent title chance for 2026. The Buffalo Bills rank second in FPI Super Bowl odds. The gap between the Rams and Bills tops four percentage points. FPI rates all 32 NFL teams each week.

FPI lists Bills against Rams as the likeliest 2026 matchup at 4.8 percent. FPI ranks Ravens against Rams second at 4.7 percent. Both projected finals point back to the Rams. ESPN builds FPI from thousands of season simulations.

FPI ranks the Kansas City Chiefs ninth entering 2026. That marks the Chiefs’ worst preseason FPI rank since 2018. The 2018 season was Patrick Mahomes’ first as Chiefs starter. Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL and LCL from December.

Patrick Mahomes still owns three Super Bowl rings with the Chiefs. The Chiefs reached multiple recent Super Bowls under Mahomes. FPI now doubts Kansas City without a fully healthy Mahomes.

FPI ranks the Dallas Cowboys 11th and behind the Philadelphia Eagles. FPI keeps the Baltimore Ravens among contenders despite a 2025 playoff miss. New Ravens coach Jesse Minter inherits two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. The Eagles still anchor the NFC East in FPI.

The Buffalo Bills lean on quarterback Josh Allen again in 2026. FPI rates Buffalo as the top AFC contender. The Bills chase a first Super Bowl title in franchise history.

Buffalo lost four straight Super Bowls from the 1990 season. The Bills have not reached a Super Bowl since then. FPI now slots Buffalo behind only the Rams overall.

Offseason trades already reshaped the 2026 NFL title picture. The Rams landed pass rusher Myles Garrett from the Browns. The Patriots closed on a deal for receiver A.J. Brown. Both moves shifted NFL Super Bowl LXI futures.

The Rams headline the NFC West in FPI for 2026. Super Bowl LXI will be played in February 2027. The Rams aim to peak by that NFL title game.

FPI projections will shift as the 2026 NFL season nears in September. Training camp battles will reshape these NFL FPI numbers. Quarterback health drives large FPI swings, as Patrick Mahomes shows.