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Market of the Day
86% Yes chance
Yes 86%
No 14%
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Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

3% chance
Moving Now

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 95%
Google 3%

Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

$170 billion 95%
$180 billion 88%

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Anthropic 90%
Google 7%

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 88%
Google 10%

Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?

6% chance

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1525 100%
1550 85%
Moving Now

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by June 30?

1550 8%
1570 8%

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560 81%
1580 60%

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

7% chance

How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?

70% 100%
80% 100%

Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?

Railbird 100%
CME 100%