World Cup Group I Last Place Prediction June 11

The prediction market on who finishes last in World Cup 2026 Group I has one clear answer: Iraq. The market prices Iraq’s probability of finishing last at 81.5%. That number has barely moved in 24 hours, signaling strong conviction among traders. A flat momentum reading with a trend score above 23 confirms the market treats this as settled.

Group I features France, Senegal, Norway, and Iraq in what spans June 16 to June 26, 2026. The market closes July 20, 2026, after all group results are official. Iraq holds an 81.5% implied probability of last place, while Senegal (the next candidate) sits far behind at roughly 10%. Total market volume stands at $1,846, with $1,387 traded in the last 24 hours alone.

How the Group I Last-Place Market Resolves

Last place means finishing fourth in Group I after all three matchdays. The team with the fewest points, or the worst goal difference in a tiebreaker, takes the spot. France carries title contender odds at roughly +475 to win the whole tournament. Norway returns to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 with Erling Haaland leading the attack.

• Iraq: 81.5% last-place probability (market price 0.82)
• Senegal: Approximately 10% last-place probability
• Norway: Low single-digit probability
• France: Near-zero last-place probability

Iraq’s path to avoiding last place runs through stunning at least one of Senegal or Norway. Coach Graham Arnold, the Australian manager appointed in May 2025, built a qualifying side on discipline and fitness. Iraq ended a 40-year World Cup absence by beating Bolivia in the intercontinental playoff final in March 2026. That inspiring run earns respect, but Group I offers no soft landing.

Market Signals and Form for Group I

Iraq’s last-place probability held flat over the last hour and 24 hours. The price climbed sharply in early June, jumping roughly 13% on June 5 in a single session. That catalyst locked in market consensus, and the trend score of 23.08 reflects stable high-confidence positioning. No new information has broken that conviction since.

Liquidity in this market runs deep at $126,958 in the order book. That figure dwarfs the $1,846 in total volume, meaning large traders could move in without much price impact. The 24-hour volume of $1,387 suggests fresh capital is still entering at these prices. High liquidity with steady prices signals the market considers the Iraq outcome a near-certainty.

The spread and totals lines for Group I matches sit in the UI data strips and reflect France as heavy favorites across all three games.

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Lines Analysis: Why Iraq Is the Last-Place Favorite

France is a two-time World Cup champion and sits among the top title contenders at +475. Senegal won the Africa Cup of Nations and qualified with a proven group of European-based starters. Norway qualified with a perfect record and carries Erling Haaland, one of the world’s most dangerous forwards. Iraq enters as the lone true underdog, making its first World Cup appearance since 1986.

Iraq’s underdog case is real but thin. Graham Arnold’s side beat Bolivia in the intercontinental playoff, showing fight and organization. Aymen Hussein scored in that final and gives Iraq a genuine goal threat. The Lions of Mesopotamia carry momentum and emotion, but the talent gap versus France, Senegal, and Norway is the widest in the group.

• Iraq vs. Norway: Opening matchday on June 16 sets Iraq’s tone early.
• France vs. Iraq: June 22 matchup in Philadelphia is Iraq’s steepest climb.
• Iraq’s squad depth: Relies heavily on players from the Iraqi Pro League with limited top European experience.
• Arnold’s system: Defensive organization could limit damage but restricts Iraq’s own goal output.
• Market stability: Price flat since June 5 spike tells you traders see no path change coming.

Total market volume of $1,846 is modest, but the 81.5% probability has the weight of deep liquidity behind it. Traders pricing Iraq this high at last place are not guessing. They are pricing a talent differential that shows up in every scouting report and qualifying-stage number.

LINES VERDICT

Iraq

The market is decisive and the talent gap is real. Iraq finishes Group I in last place.

Who is favored to finish last in World Cup Group I?

Iraq carries an 81.5% implied probability of finishing last in Group I, far ahead of any other team in the market. France, Senegal, and Norway all hold stronger squads with deeper European-based talent.

What does the spread mean for Group I games?

Spread lines for Group I games reflect France as heavy favorites in their matchups. Norway and Senegal are likely near-even against each other. Iraq is an underdog in all three of its group matches.

When does Group I play?

Group I runs from June 16 to June 26, 2026. Iraq opens against Norway on June 16 in Boston. France faces Iraq on June 22 in Philadelphia.

What is the over/under total for Group I Iraq matches?

Total lines for Iraq games sit in the UI data strips. France vs. Iraq figures to carry a high total given France’s attacking firepower and Iraq’s limited defensive depth at the World Cup level.

Where can I trade this market?

The World Cup Group I Last Place market trades on Polymarket with $126,958 in liquidity. The market closes July 20, 2026, giving traders time to react through all of the group stage results.