World Cup 2026: Will Five or More Penalties Be Missed?

The World Cup 2026 missed penalty market opened at 50 percent and has climbed sharply to 81 percent in a single session. That kind of price movement signals genuine market conviction about what happens when referees point to the spot across 104 matches in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

The question before bettors is straightforward: will five or more penalties be missed during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which runs through July 20, 2026? Markets currently price the five-plus outcome at 81 percent implied probability, with the no-threshold outcome sitting at 19 percent. Total volume stands at $3,441, reflecting an active early session.

How This Market Resolves: Five or More Missed Penalties

A missed penalty counts as any spot-kick in normal time or extra time that does not result in a goal. That includes saves, posts, crossbars, and shots that miss the frame entirely. Penalty shootouts do not typically count toward in-game totals, so this market focuses on open-play decisions. The 5+ outcome is the primary market line, and at 81 percent, traders strongly believe five misses will occur before the July 20 final.

• 5+ missed penalties: 81% implied probability
• 10+ missed penalties: Available as a secondary step-up outcome
• 15+ and higher: Additional rungs covering 20+, 25+, 30+, 35+, 40+, 45+, and 50+ missed penalties

The underdog path here is the sub-5 outcome, priced at 19 percent. That would require elite penalty conversion from every nation across all 104 matches. History suggests that is a very difficult bar to clear.

Market Signals and Form

Momentum in this market is strongly positive. The 5+ outcome jumped 31.5 percent in a single day on June 11, the opening day of the tournament, and the trend score sits at 24.28. Early action has been decisive, and the market has not given back those gains, suggesting strong early conviction rather than a speculative spike. Liquidity stands at $9,356, providing solid order book depth relative to the $3,441 in total volume. That ratio indicates the market is well-supported and not vulnerable to thin-book swings. Trader sentiment reads as strongly bullish, with an 81-to-19 split favoring the 5+ outcome across the entire participant base.

The spread and totals lines are not applicable to this prop market format. Competitor odds on related markets show the World Cup outright and group markets trading at 59 to 82 percent conviction levels, reflecting broad engagement with the tournament.

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Lines Analysis: The Case for Five-Plus Missed Penalties

The historical case for the 5+ outcome is compelling. The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar saw 23 penalty kicks awarded during normal and extra time across 64 matches. With 2026 expanding to 104 matches, the raw opportunity for both penalties and misses rises dramatically. International penalty conversion rates typically hover between 75 and 80 percent, meaning a 20 to 25 percent miss rate applies to every spot-kick taken. If 2026 mirrors the 2022 pace on a per-game basis, the total penalty count could reach 37 or more. Even a conservative miss rate produces well above five misses.

The case against the 5+ threshold would require the tournament to produce very few penalties overall and for conversion rates to spike well above historical norms. VAR has actually increased penalty frequency in recent tournaments, not decreased it. With more calls being made, the raw number of spot-kicks rises, and so does the expected miss count. A sub-5 outcome would be historically unusual across a full 104-match tournament.

• Watch penalty frequency: If the early group stage averages more than 0.40 penalties per game, the 5+ outcome becomes near-certain.
• Watch conversion rates: Sustained above-80-percent accuracy across all nations would pressure the market lower.
• Watch VAR decisions: High-profile reversed calls that result in penalties tend to cluster. One controversial week can move the market.
• Watch shootout clarifications: Confirm whether the resolution source counts shootout misses. If it does, the 10+ and higher outcomes gain relevance fast.

Total volume of $3,441 shows this market is active but not yet deep. As the group stage progresses and penalty events accumulate, expect volume to build and the step-up outcomes (10+, 15+, 20+) to attract more attention.

LINES VERDICT

5+ Missed Penalties

History, tournament size, and VAR trends all point toward a high penalty count. Five misses across 104 matches is a low bar that the 2026 World Cup is well-positioned to clear.

Who is favored in this market?

The 5+ missed penalties outcome is favored at 81% implied probability.

What does the spread mean here?

This is a prop market, not a standard team matchup. No spread line applies. The step-up outcomes (10+, 15+, etc.) function as the equivalent of a range-based spread.

When does this market resolve?

The market resolves on July 20, 2026, following the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup final.

What is the over/under on missed penalties?

The primary threshold is five missed penalties. The market also offers rungs at 10+, 15+, 20+, 25+, 30+, 35+, 40+, 45+, and 50+ for traders who want to bet on higher accumulation totals.

Where can I trade this market?

This market is listed on Polymarket. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice.