World Cup Group F Last Place Prediction June 11

The World Cup 2026 prediction market for Group F last place has settled into a clear lean toward Tunisia, with the market pricing them at a 60% chance of finishing bottom of the group. That number climbed roughly 3.5% over the past 24 hours, a meaningful move in a market this size. Sweden, Japan, and the Netherlands all carry lower implied probability, making Tunisia the consensus last-place pick heading into group play.

Group F features four nations competing through the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, with resolution set for July 20, 2026. Tunisia sits at 60% implied probability for last place. The remaining 40% is split across Sweden, Japan, and the Netherlands. Total market volume stands at $2,150, a relatively modest pool that leaves room for sharp moves as match results come in.

How the Group F Last-Place Market Resolves

This market resolves to whichever team finishes with the fewest points in Group F after all group-stage matches conclude. If two teams are tied on points, goal difference and head-to-head results determine the final standings. The market pays out on the confirmed last-place finisher, not on advancement or elimination alone.

• Tunisia: 60% implied probability of finishing last in Group F.
• Sweden: Lower implied probability; part of the 40% split.
• Japan: Lower implied probability; part of the 40% split.
• Netherlands: Lowest implied probability among alternatives; considered group favorite to advance.

The underdog path here belongs to Sweden or Japan. Either team could outperform expectations if Tunisia collects even a single strong result early in group play. A Tunisia win or draw in match one would likely trigger a fast repricing across this market.

Market Signals and Form Heading Into Group F

The momentum composite for Tunisia’s last-place probability points upward. The 24-hour price gain of 3.5% combined with a trend score near 12 signals growing bettor conviction that Tunisia is the weakest side in the group. That move did not come from a single large trade but from steady accumulation, which tends to reflect informed positioning rather than noise.

Liquidity in this market runs deep at over $40,000 in the order book, even though total traded volume sits at just $2,150. That gap between liquidity and volume means the market has not been stress-tested by heavy flow yet. As group matches approach, volume will surge and prices could move sharply on early results.

The spread and totals context for World Cup group-stage markets reflects broader tournament odds. The related Group F Winner market sits at 54% for the top finisher, consistent with the Netherlands being the implied group leader. Key momentum factors to watch include:

• Tunisia last-place probability: Rose 3.5% in 24 hours, trend score above 11, signaling building consensus.
• Liquidity depth: Over $40,000 available in the order book, well above traded volume.
• Related Group F Winner market: Priced at 54%, implying Netherlands leads the group.
• Sweden and Japan pricing: Both remain below 20% implied probability for last place.
• Volume catalyst: First group-stage match results will likely double or triple 24-hour volume overnight.

[[BANNER_BLOCK]]

Tunisia vs Netherlands Sweden Japan: Lines Analysis

The case for Tunisia finishing last centers on squad depth and recent international form. Tunisia has struggled against top European competition in recent cycles, and drawing into a group with the Netherlands creates a near-certain loss on the schedule. Two losses in three games while other sides split points would lock Tunisia into the bottom spot. The market is pricing that scenario as the base case.

The underdog case for Sweden or Japan finishing last requires Tunisia to punch above its weight class early. Japan has historically underperformed expectations at World Cups despite strong domestic talent. Sweden went through a significant generational transition after their golden era, and squad quality questions remain heading into 2026. Either team dropping points to Tunisia in a direct matchup would reshape this market fast.

Signals to monitor as the group stage opens:

• Tunisia’s first-match result: A loss locks in last-place momentum; a draw scrambles pricing.
• Netherlands vs Tunisia head-to-head: Expected Dutch win; margin matters for goal difference.
• Japan early form: Japan tends to start tournaments slowly, creating last-place vulnerability in match one.
• Sweden defensive organization: Sweden’s ability to keep matches tight against stronger sides protects them from last place.
• Market volume surge: Watch for sharp repricing when first results post; current $2,150 volume understates eventual conviction.

Total market volume of $2,150 reflects early positioning. The real pricing signal will emerge once match one results are in and bettors have real data to work with. Tunisia at 60% is a reasonable pre-tournament consensus, but this market will move fast once games kick off.

LINES VERDICT

Tunisia

Tunisia carries the highest last-place probability in Group F for good reason. The market has been drifting higher on Tunisia all week, and the squad faces the steepest path out of the group.

What is the implied probability for Tunisia finishing last in Group F?

Tunisia’s implied probability for finishing last in Group F sits at 60% as of June 11, 2026, making them the clear consensus last-place pick in this market.

What does the spread mean for this World Cup market?

There is no traditional spread here. This market resolves on final group standings, not a point spread. The Group F Winner market sits at 54%, suggesting Netherlands leads the group.

When does Group F play and when does this market resolve?

Group F matches run through the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. This market resolves on July 20, 2026, after all group-stage results are confirmed.

Is there an over/under total for this market?

No traditional over/under total applies. The relevant totals context comes from the broader Group F Winner market, which carries a 54% implied probability for the group leader.

Where can I track this prediction market?

This market trades on Polymarket, where Tunisia’s last-place probability currently sits at 60% with over $40,000 in order book liquidity available.